\u00c7far\u00eb formash mund t\u00eb marr\u00eb ofensiva ruse n\u00eb Donbas? Cilat jan\u00eb opsionet ushtarake t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb dhe \u00e7far\u00eb lloj rezistence jan\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb ofrojn\u00eb ukrainasit?<\/p>\n
K\u00ebto jan\u00eb pyetjet q\u00eb i b\u00ebn gazeta franceze Le Monde studiuesit nga Fondacioni Francez p\u00ebr K\u00ebrkime Strategjike Vincent Tourret dhe historianit ushtarak Michel Goya.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb parath\u00ebnien e saj n\u00eb fillim, gazeta deklaroi se Ukraina tani po jeton n\u00eb pritje t\u00eb nj\u00eb sulmi rus n\u00eb lindje t\u00eb vendit, duke v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb dukje se nj\u00eb muaj e gjysm\u00eb pas luft\u00ebs, Rusia u detyrua t\u00eb rishikonte strategjin\u00eb e saj fillestare dhe t\u00eb fokusohej n\u00eb nj\u00eb q\u00ebllim specifik: rajoni i Donbasit, t\u00eb cilin forcat ukrainase e kan\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt me armiqt\u00eb e tyre separatist\u00eb pro-rus\u00eb q\u00eb nga viti 2014.<\/p>\n
Ambicia fillestare e Mosk\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb dhe kontrolluar plot\u00ebsisht Ukrain\u00ebn mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb mbetur e nj\u00ebjt\u00eb. Megjithat\u00eb, dy faktor\u00eb po ndikojn\u00eb aktualisht n\u00eb strategjin\u00eb e Mosk\u00ebs: arsyet politike t\u00eb Kremlinit dhe aft\u00ebsit\u00eb operacionale t\u00eb ushtris\u00eb ruse.<\/p>\n
Forcat ruse jan\u00eb rraskapitur, tha Le Monde, pas gati dy muajsh luftime. Disa nj\u00ebsi, si n\u00eb Kherson ose af\u00ebr Kharkivit, nuk mund t\u00eb largohen m\u00eb nga pozicionet e tyre, sepse mbajn\u00eb linjat q\u00eb fituan n\u00eb luft\u00ebn kund\u00ebr ukrainasve q\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb t\u2019i kund\u00ebrshtojn\u00eb, si rezultat i s\u00eb cil\u00ebs k\u00ebto nj\u00ebsi kan\u00eb p\u00ebsuar shum\u00eb humbje njer\u00ebzore dhe materiale.<\/p>\n
Tourret e p\u00ebrmbledh situat\u00ebn duke th\u00ebn\u00eb: \u201cAta kan\u00eb humbur potencialin e tyre luftarak duke sulmuar shum\u00eb objektiva para p\u00ebr nj\u00eb muaj e gjysm\u00eb\u201d dhe nuk kan\u00eb m\u00eb rezerva, pasi kan\u00eb d\u00ebrguar m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 80 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb forcave t\u00eb tyre n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e betej\u00ebs, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb nj\u00ebsit\u00eb e tyre m\u00eb t\u00eb mira. Por nj\u00ebsit\u00eb nuk funksionojn\u00eb m\u00eb si m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Edhe n\u00ebse disa nga k\u00ebto nj\u00ebsi nuk jan\u00eb shkat\u00ebrruar plot\u00ebsisht, humbja e nj\u00eb pjese t\u00eb kapacitetit t\u00eb tyre njer\u00ebzor ose p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsimi i nj\u00eb pjese t\u00eb pajisjeve shkat\u00ebrron p\u00ebrkoh\u00ebsisht aft\u00ebsit\u00eb e tyre operacionale dhe i detyron ato t\u00eb ristrukturohen p\u00ebrpara se t\u00eb riangazhohen n\u00eb luftime dhe rus\u00ebt kan\u00eb nj\u00eb problem t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb me afatin kohor, shpjegon Goya.<\/p>\n
Analist\u00ebt besojn\u00eb se presidenti Putin, i cili po mbytet n\u00eb rezistenc\u00ebn e ashp\u00ebr t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs, d\u00ebshiron t\u00eb ket\u00eb sukses p\u00ebrpara parad\u00ebs ushtarake m\u00eb 9 maj, e cila sh\u00ebnon fitoren sovjetike ndaj nazist\u00ebve n\u00eb 1945.<\/p>\n
Sipas Tourret, kjo dat\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb vendimtare p\u00ebr Putinin, por \u201cKremlini ka nj\u00eb ndjenj\u00eb urgjence p\u00ebr arsye politike dhe po p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb arrij\u00eb nj\u00eb fitore q\u00eb do t\u2019u paraqitet rus\u00ebve sa m\u00eb shpejt t\u00eb jet\u00eb e mundur. M\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishmja, ai d\u00ebshiron t\u00eb justifikoj\u00eb humbjet e p\u00ebsuara nga ushtria e tij\u201d. Sipas dy ekspert\u00ebve francez\u00eb, Putin ka nj\u00eb nga tre skenar\u00ebt:<\/p>\n
Skenari i par\u00eb: Rusia do t\u00eb zbatoj\u00eb planin e saj fillestar
\nEkspert\u00ebt bien dakord q\u00eb rus\u00ebt do t\u00eb fillojn\u00eb zbatimin e nj\u00eb plani rrethimi p\u00ebr t\u00eb pushtuar pjes\u00ebn e rajonit t\u00eb Donetskut q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb ende n\u00ebn kontrollin e Ukrain\u00ebs. N\u00ebse forcat e Mosk\u00ebs do t\u00eb vazhdonin t\u00eb kishin kapacitetet e tyre maksimale, sipas Michel Goya, ato mund t\u00eb fillonin nj\u00eb sulm t\u00eb dyfisht\u00eb dhe t\u00eb kryenin nj\u00eb \u201crrethim t\u00eb madh t\u00eb Donbasit\u201d duke pushtuar Kharkivin n\u00eb veri dhe Zaporozhyejen n\u00eb jug, dhe m\u00eb pas rajonin e Dnieper. Megjithat\u00eb, Goya e kupton se kjo tani \u00ebsht\u00eb \u201ce pamundur, pasi ata nuk kan\u00eb m\u00eb fonde\u201d.<\/p>\n
Sa i p\u00ebrket Tourret, ai shton se \u201cRusis\u00eb do t\u2019i duhet t\u00eb sulmoj\u00eb me forca t\u00eb dob\u00ebta dhe do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrdor\u00eb nj\u00ebsi q\u00eb nuk mund t\u2019i forcoj\u00eb\u201d. \u201cSa her\u00eb q\u00eb shtohet rrethimi, do t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb i rreziksh\u00ebm, p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos p\u00ebrmendur terrenin e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb n\u00eb zon\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n
Skenari i dyt\u00eb: sulm i drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb
\nNuk ka dyshim se Rusia tani po p\u00ebrgatitet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb ofensiv\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb organizuar, beson Michel Goya. Rusia mund t\u00eb nis\u00eb dy ofensiva, nga qyteti i Donetskut n\u00eb jug t\u00eb Donbasit, i cili tashm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb duart e forcave pro-ruse, dhe nga rajoni Izjum n\u00eb veri, \u201cku forcat ruse tani p\u00ebrqendrohen dhe p\u00ebrpjekjet kryesore ushtarak n\u00eb rajon do t\u00eb fokusohet n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb\u201d, parashikon ky ekspert q\u00eb monitoron l\u00ebvizjen e forcave ruse n\u00eb terren.<\/p>\n
Nga Izjum, rus\u00ebt mund t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt n\u00eb Slavyansk dhe Kramatorsk, dy qytete t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb rajonin e Donetskut, me nj\u00eb popullsi prej 111,000 dhe 157,000 p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht, ose t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb n\u00eb per\u00ebndim p\u00ebrmes qyteteve Parvenkov dhe Pokrovsk p\u00ebr t\u2019u bashkuar me frontin jugor dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb rrethuar rajonin.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, duke pasur parasysh tendencat aktuale, ende nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb n\u00ebse rus\u00ebt do t\u00eb l\u00ebvizin n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb apo at\u00eb drejtim, apo n\u00eb t\u00eb dy drejtimet n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, dhe ende nuk dihet se ku do t\u00eb filloj\u00eb ofensiva e jugut.<\/p>\n
Goya shpjegon se \u201cSlavyansk dhe Kramatorsk jan\u00eb dy zona t\u00eb m\u00ebdha urbane dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb e pamundur t\u00eb pushtohen shpejt, dhe parashikon q\u00eb rus\u00ebt do t\u00eb p\u00ebrballen me luftime t\u00eb ashpra n\u00eb qytete dhe se rrethimi i k\u00ebtyre qyteteve do t\u00eb jet\u00eb krijimi i nj\u00eb Mariupoli t\u00eb ri.\u201d<\/p>\n
Skenari 3: Rrethimi gradual
\nLe Monde thekson se Slavyansk dhe Kramatorsk nuk jan\u00eb Mariupol, ata jan\u00eb t\u00eb izoluar n\u00eb zon\u00ebn n\u00ebn kontrollin rus dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb e leht\u00eb t\u2019i rrethosh. Tourret beson se, \u201cn\u00ebse rus\u00ebt arrijn\u00eb t\u00eb kryejn\u00eb rrethimin fillestar, do t\u00eb ket\u00eb pasoja p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb sistemin ukrainas n\u00eb Donbas. Sa m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb prishen lidhjet n\u00eb rajon, aq m\u00eb t\u00eb \u00e7organizuara do t\u00eb b\u00ebhen forcat ukrainase dhe rezistenca e tyre do t\u00eb dob\u00ebsohet\u201d.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, dy ekspert\u00ebt besojn\u00eb se fitorja p\u00ebr Mosk\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb arrihet dhe theksojn\u00eb se \u201cgjendja e forcave ukrainase \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb e panjohur e madhe, sepse ukrainasit nuk po flasin p\u00ebr humbjet e tyre\u201d. Por ajo q\u00eb dihet, sipas ekspertit Goya, \u00ebsht\u00eb se k\u00ebto forca preken po aq sa edhe rus\u00ebt.<\/p>\n
Forcat ukrainase jan\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb pozicion mbrojt\u00ebs dhe Tourret beson se k\u00ebto forca nuk kan\u00eb kapacitet rezerv\u00eb dhe nuk do t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb kompensojn\u00eb humbjet e tyre edhe me kalimin e koh\u00ebs. Sipas Le Monde, mb\u00ebshtetja nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare p\u00ebr arm\u00ebt dhe inteligjenc\u00ebn mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb vendimtare, t\u00eb cil\u00ebn Tourret e komenton duke th\u00ebn\u00eb se \u201cukrainasit din\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr fush\u00ebn e betej\u00ebs sesa kund\u00ebrshtar\u00ebt e tyre\u201d. Ofensiva e Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb Donbas, cilado qoft\u00eb forma e saj, \u201cdo t\u00eb jet\u00eb shum\u00eb e dhunshme, por mund t\u00eb ndalet shpejt\u201d, tha Goya.<\/p>\n
Sa i p\u00ebrket Tourret, ai thot\u00eb se \u201crus\u00ebt presin nj\u00eb mrekulli n\u00eb Donbas, por nuk ka asnj\u00eb prov\u00eb q\u00eb kjo t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb s\u00eb shpejti. N\u00eb \u00e7do rast, kund\u00ebrshtimi \u00ebsht\u00eb di\u00e7ka q\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrjashtohet kur b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7far\u00eb formash mund t\u00eb marr\u00eb ofensiva ruse n\u00eb Donbas? Cilat jan\u00eb opsionet ushtarake t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb dhe \u00e7far\u00eb lloj rezistence jan\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb ofrojn\u00eb ukrainasit? K\u00ebto jan\u00eb pyetjet q\u00eb i b\u00ebn gazeta franceze Le Monde studiuesit nga Fondacioni Francez p\u00ebr K\u00ebrkime Strategjike Vincent Tourret dhe historianit ushtarak Michel Goya. N\u00eb parath\u00ebnien e saj n\u00eb fillim, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":9828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9826"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9826"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9826\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9826"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9826"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9826"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}