Vladimir Putini, ka th\u00ebn\u00eb Joe Biden gjat\u00eb diskutimit n\u00eb Kongres mbi Gjendjen e Unionit, i ka gabuar bujsh\u00ebm llogarit\u00eb kur ka urdh\u00ebruar pushtimin e Ukrain\u00ebs. Presidenti rus duket se ka n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsuar aft\u00ebsin\u00eb e rezistenc\u00ebs s\u00eb ukrainasve, por edhe vendosm\u00ebrin\u00eb e Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara dhe t\u00eb aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb tyre p\u00ebr t\u2019ju kund\u00ebrv\u00ebn\u00eb planeve t\u00eb tij t\u00eb pushtimit t\u00eb Kievit. N\u00ebse \u00ebsht\u00eb k\u00ebshtu, surpriza m\u00eb e madhe duhet t\u00eb ket\u00eb ardhur nga Bashkimi Europian.<\/p>\n
Uniteti i rigjetur<\/strong><\/p>\n Ideja se Bashkimi Europian mund t\u00eb ndahej nuk ishte ide n\u00eb aj\u00ebr. N\u00eb vitet e kaluara Bashkimi Europian i ka mb\u00ebshtetur aspiratat europiane t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs dhe nd\u00ebshkuar me sanksione pushtimin rus t\u00eb 2014, por b\u00ebhej fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetje t\u00eb mefsht\u00eb dhe sanksione t\u00eb kufizuara. N\u00eb realitet, an\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm t\u00eb Bashkimit Europian, sidomos atyre per\u00ebndimor\u00eb, shpresonin ta ngrinin situat\u00ebn n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb ruajtur nj\u00eb minimum stabiliteti n\u00eb Europ\u00eb dhe bashk\u00ebpunuar me Rusin\u00eb n\u00eb fronte t\u00eb tjera. Putini mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur mbi faktin q\u00eb k\u00ebto vende nuk do ta modifikonin k\u00ebt\u00eb preferenc\u00eb themelore.<\/p>\n Presidenti rus dhe enturazhi i tij duhet patjet\u00ebr t\u00eb b\u00ebhen p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebs se n\u00eb rast eskalimi Bashkimi Europian do t\u00eb adoptonte sanksione m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnda se ato q\u00eb pasuan aneksimin e Krimes\u00eb dhe destabilizimin e Donbasit n\u00eb luft\u00ebn e 2014. Por Putini duhet t\u00eb ket\u00eb menduar se, i v\u00ebn\u00eb p\u00ebrball\u00eb faktit t\u00eb kryer, kohezioni europian do t\u00eb zbehej. Llogaria e Putinit ishte se sanksionet kan\u00eb nj\u00eb kosto dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse edhe p\u00ebr vendet europiane, q\u00eb do t\u00eb kishin pasur k\u00ebshtu nj\u00eb interes p\u00ebr t\u00eb stabilizuar \u00e7mimet e energjis\u00eb dhe t\u00eb commodities<\/em>. \u00a0Batica e refugjat\u00ebve ukrainas t\u00eb derdhur n\u00eb Bashkimin Europian do t\u2019i vendoste n\u00eb presion t\u00eb m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm europian\u00ebt, q\u00eb mbi emigracionin jan\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7ar\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn si n\u00eb asnj\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje tjet\u00ebr. Dhe sikur t\u00eb mos mjaftonte kjo, \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithmon\u00eb arma e frik\u00ebsimit dhe e k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimit t\u00eb eskalimit b\u00ebrthamor. Ironia (tragjike) p\u00ebr Putinin \u00ebsht\u00eb se sikur t\u00eb ishte kufizuar me njohjen e republikave t\u00eb sip\u00ebrp\u00ebrmendura t\u00eb Donjeckut dhe Luganskut n\u00eb Donbas, Bashkimi Europian do t\u00eb ishte lodhur t\u00eb gjente nj\u00eb mir\u00ebkuptim lidhur me nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje shum\u00eb t\u00eb rrept\u00eb, por n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb q\u00eb synon shkat\u00ebrrimin e Ukrain\u00ebs si nj\u00eb vend i pavarur i ka flakur tej \u00e7do dyshim Brukselit dhe n\u00eb kryeqytetet europiane dhe Bashkimi Europian \u00ebsht\u00eb zbuluar si aktor gjeopolitik.<\/p>\n P\u00ebrjashtimi i Rusis\u00eb<\/strong><\/p>\n Bashkimi Europian jo vet\u00ebm e ka d\u00ebnuar agresionin e Rusis\u00eb ndaj Ukrain\u00ebs si shkelje e dhunshme e s\u00eb drejt\u00ebs nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. Ka nd\u00ebrtuar edhe p\u00ebrplasjen me Rusin\u00eb n\u00eb terma normativ\u00eb, p\u00ebrplasja midis dy bot\u00ebs s\u00eb vlerave \u2013 nj\u00eb q\u00eb privilegjon t\u00eb drejt\u00ebn dhe lirit\u00eb, tjetra forca dhe autoritarizmi \u2013 n\u00eb kontrast t\u00eb pariparuesh\u00ebm. Prandaj \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb sensin e sigurimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb ardhmjeje t\u00eb demokratike t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs q\u00eb shum\u00eb jan\u00eb shprehur n\u00eb favor t\u00eb nj\u00eb aderimi t\u00eb saj n\u00eb Bashkimin Europian. Objektivi p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar n\u00eb siguri t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, p\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr tashm\u00eb e kompromentuar prej vitesh, p\u00ebrfundimisht \u00ebsht\u00eb arkivuar. Hapja ndaj Putinit, ndoshta n\u00eb termat e af\u00ebrsive ideologjike si p\u00ebr Hungarin\u00eb iliberale t\u00eb Viktor Orban apo t\u00eb kalkulimieve strategjike si n\u00eb rastin e Ostpolitik\u00ebs gjermane (por e favorizuar nga francez\u00ebt dhe sidomos nga italian\u00ebt), nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e mb\u00ebshtetshme. N\u00eb Bashkimin Europian Rusia nuk e ka m\u00eb asnj\u00eb partner.<\/p>\n Bashkimi Europian \u00ebsht\u00eb demonstruar i gatsh\u00ebm t\u2019i shkaktoj\u00eb nj\u00eb kosto t\u00eb lart\u00eb Rusis\u00eb. Ka ngrir\u00eb imobiliare dhe tituj t\u00eb thuajse \u00e7do oligarku af\u00ebr me Putinin, t\u00eb an\u00ebtar\u00ebve kryesor\u00eb t\u00eb kabinetit t\u00eb tij, si edhe t\u00eb vet\u00eb presidentit. Ka shk\u00ebputur pjes\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb bankave ruse nga sistemi mesazhistik nd\u00ebrbankar Swift, megjith\u00ebse duke ruajtur pagesat e importeve t\u00eb hidrokarbureve. Ka mbyllur aksesin ndaj tregjeve financiare europiane t\u00eb bankave dhe kompanive ruse dhe vendosur nj\u00eb limit prej 100000 eurosh n\u00eb depozitat e Bashkimit Europian t\u00eb qytetar\u00ebve rus\u00eb. Sidomos, Bashkimi Europian ka bllokuar askesin e Bank\u00ebs Qendrore Ruse ndaj rezervave t\u00eb jashtme t\u00eb mbajtura n\u00eb euro (rreth 32% e totalit, mbi 200 miliard), duke reduktuar kapacitetin e qeveris\u00eb ruse n\u00eb amortizimin e efektit t\u00eb sanksioneve. Dhe nuk ndalet k\u00ebtu. Bashkimi Europian e ka reduktuar ndjesh\u00ebm, me val\u00eb pakashum\u00eb integrale, shk\u00ebmbimet treg\u00ebtare me kompani ruse aktive n\u00eb sektorin e mbrojtjes, nxjerrjes dhe transportit t\u00eb hidrokarbureve, aerohap\u00ebsir\u00ebs, kantieristik\u00ebs, transporteve tok\u00ebsore e detare, sh\u00ebrbimeve t\u00eb sigurimit dhe t\u00eb risigurimit. I ka vendosur limite treg\u00ebtis\u00eb s\u00eb mallrave me p\u00ebrdorim dual dhe gjysm\u00ebp\u00ebr\u00e7uesve, materialeve t\u00eb nevojshme t\u00eb funksionimit t\u00eb aparaturave dixhitale si spmartfon\u00ebt dhe kompjuter\u00ebt (ve\u00e7 t\u00eb tjerash). Bashkimi Europian ka mbyllur hap\u00ebsir\u00ebn ajrore ndaj fluturimeve t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb dhe ndaluar kalimi sip\u00ebr Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr kompanit\u00eb europiane.<\/p>\n Va\u00eba e sanksioneve \u2013 ndaj atyre t\u00eb Bashkimit Europian i shtohen atyre t\u00eb Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara, Mbret\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb Bashkuar, Japonis\u00eb, Australis\u00eb dhe t\u00eb tjer\u00eb akoma \u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb maturuar m\u00eb tej me vendimin e organizatave t\u00eb ndryshme sportive dhe kulturore p\u00ebr ta p\u00ebrjashtuar Rusin\u00eb. Sidomos pse \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb zhvillimin nj\u00eb \u00e7impenjim kolosal spontan t\u00eb dhjet\u00ebra e dhjet\u00ebra kompanive europiane dhe jasht\u00ebeuropiane nga Rusia. Faktikisht, Bashkimi Europian ka kontribuar p\u00ebr ta p\u00ebrjashtuar Rusin\u00eb nga benefitet e globalizimit: tregje financiare t\u00eb hapura, investime direkte, treg\u00ebti, qarkullim personash, arg\u00ebtim, p\u00ebrdorim i teknologjis\u00eb p\u00ebr pagesat, informacion dhe t\u00eb tjera akoma. Bashkimi Europian u ka hapur dyert qindramij\u00ebra refugjat\u00ebve ukrainas, duke u dh\u00ebn\u00eb atyre mund\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb qarkullojn\u00eb, t\u00eb banojn\u00eb dhe t\u00eb punojn\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb, si edhe edhe t\u00eb ken\u00eb akses n\u00eb benefitet sociale. Komisioni Europian ka premtuar nj\u00eb alokim prej 1.2 miliard eurosh n\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetje makroekonomike Ukrain\u00ebs. K\u00ebtyre do t\u00eb vijn\u00eb t\u2019ju shtohen kontributet komb\u00ebtare.<\/p>\n S\u00eb fundi, por sigurisht jo e fundit p\u00ebr nga r\u00ebnd\u00ebsia, Bashkimi Europian ka premtuat t\u2019ia leht\u00ebsoj\u00eb asistenc\u00ebn ushtarake Ukrain\u00ebs, n\u00eb linj\u00eb me orientimin e thuajse t\u00eb gjith\u00eb shteteve an\u00ebtare, p\u00ebrfshi at\u00eb tradicionalisht ngurrues si Suedia dhe Gjermania. Vendimi i Berlinit p\u00ebr t\u2019i rritur shpenzimet ushtarake n\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb \u00e7do aspektet nj\u00eb riarmatim do t\u2019i shtyj\u00eb vendet e tjera e Bashkimit Europian t\u00eb shpenzojn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr mbrojtjen. Kjo hedh bazat e nj\u00eb forcimi t\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme dhe t\u00eb mbrojtjes s\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt t\u00eb Bashkimit Europian, jo n\u00eb kuptimin e nj\u00eb federalizimi sesa t\u00eb nj\u00eb integrimi m\u00eb t\u00eb madh t\u00eb kapaciteteve e t\u00eb investimeve dhe prandaj nj\u00eb perspektiv\u00ebn e nj\u00eb potenciali projektimi dhe operativ. Vizioni i nj\u00eb autonomie m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe dhe sovranitet strategjik t\u00eb kultivuar n\u00eb ve\u00e7anti nga Emmanuel Macron merr nj\u00eb form\u00eb pak m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuar.<\/p>\n Limitet e Europ\u00ebs gjeopolitike<\/strong><\/p>\n P\u00ebrgjigja e Bashkimit Europian ndaj pushtimit rus t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs ka qen\u00eb e shpejt\u00eb dhe jasht\u00ebzakonisht e ashp\u00ebr. Ekonomia ruse n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb moment \u00ebsht\u00eb toksike. Kush i afrohet e b\u00ebn me rrezikun e tij. Duhet deduktuar se p\u00ebrgjigja europiane ka qen\u00eb efikase? P\u00ebrgjigja paraprake \u00ebsht\u00eb: patjet\u00ebr q\u00eb po. Ama ekzistojn\u00eb limite t\u00eb sakta, dhe rreziqe pasuese ndaj transformimit t\u00eb supozuar n\u00eb aktor \u201cgjeopolitik\u201d t\u00eb Bashkimit Europian.<\/p>\n Limiti i par\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i lidhur me ecurin\u00eb e luft\u00ebs. Midis ekspert\u00ebve ushtarak\u00eb qarkullon ideja se ushtria pushtuese mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb af\u00ebr kolapsit, por nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e th\u00ebn\u00eb q\u00eb as ndalimi i fushat\u00ebs t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb fundin e dhunave. P\u00ebr momentin, Putini nuk ka b\u00ebr\u00eb t\u00ebrheqje lidhur me objektivitn e thyerjes s\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs. N\u00ebse lufta do t\u00eb b\u00ebhet m\u00eb brutale, Bashkimi Europian (ashtu si Shtetet t Bashkuara) do t\u00eb gjendet n\u00eb dar\u00eb midis logjik\u00ebs s\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb presionit \u2013 dhe ndihmave ushtarake p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn \u2013 dhe asaj t\u00eb shmangies s\u00eb eskalimit, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje ushtarake midis NATO dhe Rusis\u00eb. Bashkimi Europian, si asnj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr, nuk e ka nj\u00eb strategji t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb p\u00ebrtej presionit ndaj Mosk\u00ebs dhe ndihmave p\u00ebr Kievin. P\u00ebrcaktimi i hapave t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm do t\u00eb b\u00ebhet shum\u00eb m\u00eb rriskuese dhe, p\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb, aq m\u00eb shum\u00eb q\u00eb Moska ka hyr\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb spirale hiperautoritare dhe t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb hapur kana\u00ebet e komunikimit \u2013 nj\u00eb hap i nevojsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb frenuar eskalimin \u2013 mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet objekt kund\u00ebrshtish\u00eb n\u00eb rritje.<\/p>\n Limiti i dyt\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetshm\u00ebria e regjimit t\u00eb sanksioneve, sidomos n\u00ebse Bashkimit Europian do t\u2019i duhej t\u00eb kalonte n\u00eb reduktimin e importit t\u00eb hidrokarbureve nga Rusia. N\u00eb rast se lufta do t\u00eb zvarritej deri n\u00eb vjesht\u00eb, Bashkimi Europian do t\u00eb gjendet i detyruar t\u00eb ar\u00ebsyetoj\u00eb sesi t\u2019i ruaj\u00eb furnizimet e tij energjitike. Sesa \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundur ta b\u00ebj\u00eb pa Rusin\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e paqart\u00eb.<\/p>\n Limiti i tret\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb kohezioni europian, p\u00ebr sa i pajisur me jet\u00ebn e tij, e ka origjin\u00ebn e tij p\u00ebrpara n\u00eb koordinimin e vazhduehs\u00ebm me nj\u00eb administrat\u00eb amerikane me vokacion t\u00eb fort\u00eb atlantist. Megjithat\u00eb, Biden \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi t\u00eb madhe n\u00eb atdhe. N\u00ebse n\u00eb n\u00ebntor republikan\u00ebt \u2013 shum\u00eb prej t\u00eb cil\u00ebve \u201ctrumpian\u00eb\u201d \u2013 do t\u00eb merrnin kontrollin e Kongresit, at\u00ebhere shtylla transatlantike q\u00eb kontribuon p\u00ebr ta mbajtur unitetin europian do t\u00eb dob\u00ebsohej. N\u00eb rast se Donald Trump, q\u00eb dy dit\u00eb p\u00ebrpara pushtimin e p\u00ebrkufizonte akoma Putinin si nj\u00eb \u201cgjeni\u201d dhe q\u00eb nuk ka fshehur kurr\u00eb armiq\u00ebsin\u00eb e tij kundrejt Europ\u00ebs apo nj\u00eb kandidat tjet\u00ebr si ai do t\u00eb duhej t\u00eb fitonte presidencialet e 2024, kjo shtyll\u00eb do t\u00eb mungonte krejt\u00ebsisht.<\/p>\n N\u00eb konkluzion, Bashkimi Europian ka demonstruar nj\u00eb potencial influence gjeopolitike t\u00eb konsiderueshme. Rreziku q\u00eb uniteti europian mos t\u2019i duroj\u00eb nj\u00eb intensifikimi t\u00eb dhunave n\u00eb Ukranin\u00eb apo leht\u00ebsimit t\u00eb frontit transatlantik \u00ebsht\u00eb real. P\u00ebr Bashkimin Europian prova e zjarrit \u00ebsht\u00eb ende e pritshme, por precedentit i k\u00ebsaj jave t\u00eb fundit nuk do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb injorohet m\u00eb.<\/p>\n (nga Istituto Affari Internazionali<\/em>)<\/p>\n P\u00ebrgatiti<\/strong><\/p>\n ARMIN TIRANA<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Vladimir Putini, ka th\u00ebn\u00eb Joe Biden gjat\u00eb diskutimit n\u00eb Kongres mbi Gjendjen e Unionit, i ka gabuar bujsh\u00ebm llogarit\u00eb kur ka urdh\u00ebruar pushtimin e Ukrain\u00ebs. Presidenti rus duket se ka n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsuar aft\u00ebsin\u00eb e rezistenc\u00ebs s\u00eb ukrainasve, por edhe vendosm\u00ebrin\u00eb e Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara dhe t\u00eb aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb tyre p\u00ebr t\u2019ju kund\u00ebrv\u00ebn\u00eb planeve t\u00eb tij t\u00eb …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":8522,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8521"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8521"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8521\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}