Projeksionet e reja t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb p\u00ebr 2021-1050, t\u00eb hartuara nga nj\u00eb grup ekspert\u00ebsh t\u00eb Organizat\u00ebs Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare p\u00ebr Migracion (IOM), tregojn\u00eb se vendi do t\u00eb ket\u00eb rreth 2 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2050, nga rreth 2.76 aktualisht. Mosha mediane arrin 49 vje\u00e7. Grupmosha n\u00ebn 19 vje\u00e7 do t\u00eb tkurret me 47% dhe ajo mbi 65 do t\u00eb zgjerohet n\u00eb num\u00ebr me 65%.<\/p>\n
Forca e re e pun\u00ebs nuk do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebsoj\u00eb pensionist\u00ebt. Politika \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb faz\u00eb t\u00eb hershme p\u00ebr t\u00eb trajtuar seriozisht kriz\u00ebn demografike dhe pasojat q\u00eb vijn\u00eb prej saj. Do t\u00eb ndikohen t\u00eb gjitha aspektet sociale, ekonomike dhe politike t\u00eb vendit. Qarqet q\u00eb po vuajn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb tranzicionin e popullsis\u00eb. Zgjidhjet q\u00eb rekomandohen<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrtej problemeve t\u00eb tjera q\u00eb lidhen me tranzicionin e gjat\u00eb, varf\u00ebrin\u00eb q\u00eb nuk po \u00e7rr\u00ebnjoset dhe demokracin\u00eb e brisht\u00eb, \u00e7\u00ebshtja m\u00eb e mpreht\u00eb me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn po p\u00ebrballet vendi \u00ebsht\u00eb demografia. Reduktimi i popullsis\u00eb dhe plakja e saj u shnd\u00ebrruan n\u00eb shqet\u00ebsimin kryesor t\u00eb bizneseve vitet e fundit, por duket se perspektiva \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e err\u00ebt dhe masat e rikuperimit nuk japin rezultate n\u00eb afat t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb janar t\u00eb vitit 2023, INSTAT raportoi se popullsia e vendit u reduktua edhe me mbi 31 mij\u00eb persona n\u00eb krahasim me janarin 2022 dhe 145 mij\u00eb persona m\u00eb pak se m\u00eb 2011, kur u krye Censi i fundit.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb projeksion i fundit i Organizat\u00ebs Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare p\u00ebr Migracion (IOM) p\u00ebr popullsin\u00eb 2021 \u2013 2050 tregoi se numri i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm i popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb brenda nj\u00eb kufiri realist midis 2,06 dhe 2,3 milion\u00eb banor\u00ebsh deri n\u00eb vitin 2050.<\/p>\n
Projeksionet e reja kan\u00eb vend p\u00ebr marzhe t\u00eb larta gabimi n\u00eb var\u00ebsi t\u00eb zhvillimeve n\u00eb emigracion dhe normave t\u00eb fertilitetit, por t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat jan\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb sakta p\u00ebr ecurin\u00eb e popullsis\u00eb mbi 65 vje\u00e7. Projeksionet e reja t\u00eb IOM, pavar\u00ebsisht se nuk jan\u00eb zyrtare, tregojn\u00eb popullata e f\u00ebmij\u00ebve 0-19 vje\u00e7 do t\u00eb p\u00ebsoj\u00eb r\u00ebnie me 47% deri n\u00eb vitin 2050, nd\u00ebrsa popullsia mbi 65 vje\u00e7 do t\u00eb zgjerohet me 56%.<\/p>\n
R\u00ebnia e popullsis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e dukshme, por mungesa e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb sakta p\u00ebr grupmoshat dhe shp\u00ebrndarjen gjeografike i b\u00ebjn\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb forta efektet negative dhe m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira zgjidhjet. Shtyrja e censit dhe mungesa e projeksioneve t\u00eb sakta p\u00ebr pritshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e treguesit t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb i kan\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb zon\u00eb t\u00eb err\u00ebt bizneset.<\/p>\n
Kryetari i Dhom\u00ebs s\u00eb Tregtis\u00eb dhe Industris\u00eb, Nikolin Jaka, i konsideroi thelb\u00ebsore t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e sakta p\u00ebr popullsin\u00eb, pasi informacioni mbi numrin dhe struktur\u00ebn e popullsis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb jetik p\u00ebr planet dhe aktivitetin e biznesit. Ekonomisti i njohur, Selami Xhepa, b\u00ebri thirrje p\u00ebr nj\u00eb trajtim serioz t\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtjeve q\u00eb lidhen me kapitalin human.<\/p>\n
Sipas tij, reformat strukturore mbeten thelb\u00ebsore p\u00ebr t\u00eb krijuar nj\u00eb mjedis nxit\u00ebs jo vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr investimet private, por edhe p\u00ebr rritjen e produktivitetit t\u00eb pun\u00ebs. Politikat mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebse p\u00ebr investitor\u00ebt duhet t\u00eb riformatohen p\u00ebr arritjen jo thjesht t\u00eb objektivave sasior\u00eb, por t\u00eb disa objektivave cil\u00ebsor\u00eb q\u00eb ndikojn\u00eb n\u00eb mir\u00ebqenien e shoq\u00ebris\u00eb, si thelb\u00ebsor\u00eb p\u00ebr rritjen e popullsis\u00eb, \u2013 k\u00ebshilloi Xhepa.<\/p>\n
Projeksionet e reja t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, Shqip\u00ebria 2 mln banor\u00eb m\u00eb 2050<\/strong><\/p>\n Rezultatet e parashikimit t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb nga nj\u00eb grup i madh ekspert\u00ebsh vendas e t\u00eb huaj, q\u00eb u udh\u00ebhoq nga IOM \u2013 Albania, tregojn\u00eb se numri i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm i banor\u00ebve n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri ka gjasa t\u00eb ulet thuajse n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb lineare gjat\u00eb tri dekadave t\u00eb ardhshme.<\/p>\n \u201cN\u00ebse supozojm\u00eb se popullsia e vendit n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2020 ishte 2,83 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb, numri i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm duhet t\u00eb arrij\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin prej 2,34 milion\u00eb banor\u00ebsh brenda nj\u00eb kufiri realist midis 2,06 dhe 2,64 milion\u00eb banor\u00ebsh deri n\u00eb vitin 2050\u201d, \u2013 sipas projeksionit t\u00eb IOM.<\/p>\n Sipas ekspert\u00ebve, arsyet e k\u00ebsaj r\u00ebnieje jan\u00eb lindshm\u00ebria e ul\u00ebt dhe n\u00eb r\u00ebnie, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb tkurrjes s\u00eb numrit t\u00eb n\u00ebnave dhe fertilitetit t\u00eb ul\u00ebt. Numri relativisht i lart\u00eb dhe n\u00eb rritje i vdekjeve t\u00eb shkaktuara nga rritja e numrit t\u00eb personave t\u00eb moshuar dhe humbjet q\u00eb do t\u00eb vijn\u00eb nga emigracioni do t\u00eb \u00e7ojn\u00eb n\u00eb r\u00ebnien e popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb vendit.<\/p>\n Ekspert\u00ebt e IOM arrit\u00ebn n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimin se ndryshimi i pritsh\u00ebm p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson r\u00ebnien e numrit t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb me rreth 17% me pasiguri t\u00eb skajshme 7% dhe 27% n\u00eb fund t\u00eb periudh\u00ebs 30-vje\u00e7are t\u00eb mbuluar nga parashikimi. N\u00eb terma absolut\u00eb, popullsia ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb tkurret me 33-45 mij\u00eb persona n\u00eb vit, gjat\u00eb viteve 2021-2050.<\/p>\n N\u00eb dy dekadat e fundit, zhvillimet reale n\u00eb popullsin\u00eb e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb kan\u00eb qen\u00eb m\u00eb negative se skenari pesimist. P.sh. n\u00eb projeksionet e INSTAT t\u00eb 2019-2031, popullsia e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, sipas skenarit t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb ul\u00ebt do t\u00eb ishte 2,80,109 banor\u00eb m\u00eb 2023, por vet\u00eb INSTAT n\u00eb matjet vjetore, raportoi se ishin rreth 47 mij\u00eb banor\u00eb, ose 1.6% m\u00eb pak se parashikimi pesimist.<\/p>\n Mosha mediane arrin n\u00eb 49 vje\u00e7 m\u00eb 2050<\/strong><\/p>\n Projeksionet e IOM tregojn\u00eb se mosha mediane (mesorja q\u00eb ndan popullsin\u00eb n\u00eb dy pjes\u00eb t\u00eb barabarta) do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb n\u00eb 49 vje\u00e7 deri n\u00eb vitin 2050, sipas variantit mesatar t\u00eb parashikimit. Popullsia fem\u00ebrore e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb mesatarisht rreth 50 vje\u00e7. Popullsia mashkullore pritet t\u00eb jet\u00eb thuajse dy vjet m\u00eb e re (48 vje\u00e7) se ajo fem\u00ebrore deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb periudh\u00ebs s\u00eb parashikimit.<\/p>\n Sipas ekspert\u00ebve, ky ndryshim n\u00eb mosh\u00ebn mesatare midis meshkujve dhe femrave \u00ebsht\u00eb logjik. Ai rrjedh nga dy fakte: Nj\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje natyrore m\u00eb e lart\u00eb e djemve mes t\u00eb sapolindurve dhe vdekshm\u00ebria p\u00ebrtej parashikimeve t\u00eb pritshme e meshkujve t\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha moshave, duke sjell\u00eb num\u00ebr m\u00eb t\u00eb madh t\u00eb femrave n\u00eb moshat m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha.<\/p>\n Mosha mediane e popullsis\u00eb nisi rritjen pas vitit 1979. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vit, sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb INSTAT, mediana e popullsis\u00eb ishte 20 vje\u00e7. Nga viti 1979 deri n\u00eb vitin 2022, mosha mediane \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur me 18.8 vite.<\/p>\n Projeksionet e INSTAT p\u00ebr vitet n\u00eb vijim tregojn\u00eb p\u00ebr plakje t\u00eb m\u00ebtejshme t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb. Deri n\u00eb vitin 2060, mosha mediane pritet t\u2019i ket\u00eb kaluar t\u00eb 50 vitet.<\/strong><\/p>\n INSTAT raportoi se mosha mediane e popullsis\u00eb ishte 38.8 vje\u00e7 n\u00eb vitin 2022, por projeksionet e reja tregojn\u00eb se do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb n\u00eb 49 vje\u00e7 n\u00eb vitin 2050, sipas nj\u00eb skenari normal t\u00eb parashikimit t\u00eb fundit nga IOM.<\/p>\n Shqip\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb ende nj\u00eb nga popullsit\u00eb me mosh\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb re n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, por po plaket me ritme shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejta se shtetet e tjera. Sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb Eurostat, popullsia shqiptare e grupmosh\u00ebs deri n\u00eb 14 vje\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb \u201ctkurrur\u201d me 3.1% pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje, n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn 2014 -2021, duke kryesuar list\u00ebn e 37 vendeve p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat jan\u00eb publikuar t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat.<\/p>\n Shqip\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb ende sot nj\u00eb nga popullsit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb reja n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, me nj\u00eb mosh\u00eb mediane 38.8 vje\u00e7, por pas disa dekadash pritet q\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb popullsia m\u00eb e plakur, jo vet\u00ebm n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, por n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn.<\/p>\n Llogaritjet jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb nga nj\u00ebsia e p\u00ebrpunimit t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave \u201cVisual Capitalist\u201d, q\u00eb ka analizuar t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e divizionit t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb t\u00eb Organizat\u00ebs s\u00eb Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara (OKB). Sipas parashikimeve, 49% e popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb 65 vje\u00e7 e lart deri n\u00eb vitin 2100, pesha m\u00eb e lart\u00eb n\u00eb bot\u00eb dhe dyfishi i mesatares globale deri n\u00eb at\u00eb vit.<\/p>\n Grupi i t\u00eb rinjve n\u00ebn 19 vje\u00e7 ulet me 47%, ai mbi 65% rritet me 56%<\/strong><\/p>\n Projeksioni i fundit p\u00ebr popullsin\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb detajuar tregon se numri i f\u00ebmij\u00ebve dhe adoleshent\u00ebve (0-19 vje\u00e7) nga 656 mij\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2020 do t\u00eb bjer\u00eb n\u00eb rreth 350 mij\u00eb pas 30 vitesh (2050), ose 47%.<\/p>\n R\u00ebnia relative e pritshme do t\u00eb jet\u00eb rreth 22% gjat\u00eb dekad\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb dhe 19% dhe 16% n\u00eb dy dekadat n\u00eb vijim. P\u00ebrqindja e k\u00ebsaj kategorie moshe ndaj popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme do t\u00eb zvog\u00eblohet me 8 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeje ndaj totalit t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, nga 23,2% koh\u00ebt e fundit n\u00eb 15% n\u00eb mesin e k\u00ebtij shekulli.<\/p>\n N\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt, numri i t\u00eb moshuarve ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb rritet. Kjo rritje do t\u00eb jet\u00eb mjaft intensive n\u00eb dy dekadat e para. Popullata e moshuar mbi 65 vje\u00e7 ose 430 mij\u00eb persona n\u00eb vitin 2020 do t\u00eb rritet n\u00eb rreth 670 mij\u00eb persona deri n\u00eb vitin 2050, ose me 56%.<\/p>\n Ekspert\u00ebt e IOM vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb se nj\u00eb zhvillim i till\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb sfid\u00eb reale p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb sistemin shoq\u00ebror t\u00eb vendit dhe q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e tij. Grupi i ekspert\u00ebve pohon se projeksionet mbi ecurin\u00eb e p\u00ebrgjithshme t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb mund t\u00eb mos jen\u00eb t\u00eb sakta, por ecuria e popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb mosh\u00eb madhore \u00ebsht\u00eb treguesi m\u00eb i besuesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n Flukset emigratore dhe norma e fertilitetit mund t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb t\u00eb padobishme parashikimet p\u00ebr lindjet dhe grupet e t\u00eb rinjve, por kontigjent\u00ebt e pleqve jan\u00eb t\u00eb sakta. Arsyeja \u00ebsht\u00eb se t\u00eb gjith\u00eb t\u00eb moshuarit e ardhsh\u00ebm (+65 vje\u00e7) tani jan\u00eb +35 vje\u00e7 e lart.<\/p>\n Pjes\u00ebmarrja e k\u00ebtyre personave n\u00eb migrimin nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar dhe probabiliteti i emigrimit (t\u00eb p\u00ebrhersh\u00ebm) \u00ebsht\u00eb tashm\u00eb i pak\u00ebt.<\/p>\n Nd\u00ebr kategorit\u00eb e t\u00eb moshuarve, pesha do t\u00eb zhvendoset nga t\u00eb moshuarit m\u00eb t\u00eb rinj te m\u00eb t\u00eb plakurit. N\u00eb vitin 2020, t\u00eb moshuarit mbi 85 vje\u00e7 p\u00ebrb\u00ebnin 15% t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb mbi 65 vje\u00e7, por pas 30 vjet\u00ebsh, ata do t\u00eb jen\u00eb 35%.<\/p>\n T\u00eb moshuarit e mosh\u00ebs s\u00eb mesme (75-84 vje\u00e7) nga 23% t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb mbi 65 vje\u00e7 m\u00eb 2020 do t\u00eb arrijn\u00eb n\u00eb 29% n\u00eb vitin 2038 dhe m\u00eb pas do t\u00eb zbres\u00eb n\u00eb 21% n\u00eb vitin 2050.<\/p>\n Pjesa e t\u00eb moshuarve t\u00eb rinj (65-74 vje\u00e7) pritet t\u00eb ulet nga 61% e totalit t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb mbi 65 vje\u00e7 n\u00eb vitin 2020 n\u00eb 44% n\u00eb vitin 2050. Nj\u00eb zhvillim i till\u00eb duhet t\u00eb vij\u00eb si rezultat i dinamik\u00ebs s\u00eb pabarabart\u00eb t\u00eb n\u00ebngrupeve t\u00eb moshuarve. \/Monitor<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Projeksionet e reja t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb p\u00ebr 2021-1050, t\u00eb hartuara nga nj\u00eb grup ekspert\u00ebsh t\u00eb Organizat\u00ebs Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare p\u00ebr Migracion (IOM), tregojn\u00eb se vendi do t\u00eb ket\u00eb rreth 2 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2050, nga rreth 2.76 aktualisht. Mosha mediane arrin 49 vje\u00e7. Grupmosha n\u00ebn 19 vje\u00e7 do t\u00eb tkurret me 47% dhe ajo mbi 65 do …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":49545,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49544"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49544"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49544\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49545"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}