N\u00eb dy vitet e fundit rendi bot\u00ebror \u00ebsht\u00eb tronditur nga pandemia q\u00eb i detyrohet Covid-19, i cili ka gjeneruar variante t\u00eb reja gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb agresive, duke shkaktuar n\u00eb vende t\u00eb ndryshme \u2013 sidomos ku vaksinat mungojn\u00eb \u2013 miliona t\u00eb vdekur dhe nga kriza klimaterike, q\u00eb nga viti n\u00eb vit b\u00ebhet m\u00eb akute dhe m\u00eb preokupuese, aq sa t\u00eb mobilizoj\u00eb jo vet\u00ebm aktivist\u00ebt e sektorit, t\u00eb ashtuquajturat \u00abl\u00ebvizje ekologjike\u00bb, por edhe politikan\u00ebt dhe bot\u00ebn e ekonomis\u00eb e t\u00eb prodhimit n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi. N\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb, kriza e shkaktuar nga Covid-19 ka shkaktuar n\u00eb pranver\u00ebn e 2020 r\u00ebnien e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs, mbi t\u00eb ardhur\u00ebn e s\u00eb cil\u00ebs mb\u00ebshtetet akoma ekonomia e disa shteteve t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme. Sipas disa analist\u00ebve, kombinimi midis pandemis\u00eb, kriz\u00ebs ekonlogjike prej ngrohjes globale dhe r\u00ebnia pasuese e \u00e7mimit t\u00eb hidrokarbureve (deri n\u00eb -50%) i ka \u00e7uar disa vende arabe \u2013 sidomos Emiratet e Bashkuara Arabe, Bahreinin, Sudanin dhe Marokun \u2013 midis ver\u00ebs dhe dhjetorit 2020 q\u00eb t\u00eb n\u00ebnshkruajn\u00eb t\u00eb ashtuquajturat \u00abMarr\u00ebveshje t\u00eb Abrahamit\u00bb me Izraelin. Pavar\u00ebsisht referimit t\u00eb qart\u00eb biblik, k\u00ebto marr\u00ebveshje n\u00eb realitet kan\u00eb pak fetare; ama mbyllin nj\u00eb fraktur\u00eb historike q\u00eb kishte ndodhur n\u00eb hapjen m\u00eb 1948 n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme me krijimin e shtetit t\u00eb Izraelit dhe aq ka peshuar shum\u00eb \u2013 duke shkaktuar konflikte, p\u00ebrplasje t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjakshme dhe atentate terroriste \u2013 n\u00eb politik\u00ebn e Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme e k\u00ebtyre 70 viteve t\u00eb fundit. Marr\u00ebveshje t\u00eb tilla, q\u00eb jan\u00eb realizuar me regjin\u00eb e Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara t\u00eb Donald Trump, dhe m\u00eb pas t\u00eb \u00abbekuara\u00bb edhe nga pasuesi i tij n\u00eb Sht\u00ebpin\u00eb e Bardh\u00eb, kan\u00eb p\u00ebsuar nj\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtim t\u00eb paprashikuar kur lider\u00ebt e shteteve prodhuese, sidomos Emiratet dhe Arabia Saudite \u2013 jan\u00eb vet\u00ebdij\u00ebsuar p\u00ebr vjet\u00ebrsin\u00eb e t\u00eb ardhur\u00ebs petrolifere. P\u00ebr motive me karakter politiko \u2013 fetar, Riadi nuk ka hyr\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrs\u00ebdrejti n\u00eb Marr\u00ebveshje, edhe princi i ri hereditar Mohammad bin Salman i cili ka qen\u00eb nj\u00eb prej frym\u00ebzuesve dhe mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebsve m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj, por duket se mbreti aktual Salman, tradicionalist dhe shum\u00eb fetar, ka shprehur refuzimin e tij t\u00eb prer\u00eb p\u00ebr ta n\u00ebnshkruar. Faktikisht nuk duhet harruar se Arabia Saudite ka privilegjin se \u00ebsht\u00eb vendi dy xhamive m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb islamit (Mek\u00ebs dhe Medin\u00ebs), gj\u00eb q\u00eb i jep primatin n\u00eb bot\u00ebn islamike sunite; ve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, p\u00ebr dekada ka financiar vendet arabe q\u00eb i kund\u00ebrviheshin Izraelit. R\u00ebnia marramend\u00ebse e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb fillimet e kriz\u00ebs pandemike, pavar\u00ebsisht rimarrjes s\u00eb saj, ka p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuar nj\u00eb sinjal t\u00eb paekuivok, duke konfirmuar nevoj\u00ebn e nj\u00eb tranzicioni afatshkurt\u00ebr apo afatmes\u00ebm ndaj burimeve (jo fosile) t\u00eb rinovueshme, boll q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrballoj\u00eb ngrohjen globale dhe reduktimin e emisionit t\u00eb gazit ser\u00eb, t\u00eb rreziksh\u00ebm p\u00ebr mjedisin, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb konfirmuar n\u00eb takimet e fundit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare midis krer\u00ebve t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj t\u00eb shteteve t\u00eb planetit: G20 e Rom\u00ebs dhe, sidomos, Cop26 e Glasgow.<\/p>\n
Ekspert\u00ebt e fush\u00ebs kan\u00eb fiksuar limitin maksimal p\u00ebr ngrohjen globale prej 1.5 grad\u00ebsh m\u00eb shum\u00eb respektivisht nivelit t\u00eb arritur n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn paraindustriale, p\u00ebrtej t\u00eb cilit do t\u00eb ishte e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb shmangeshin efektet e d\u00ebmshme dhe t\u00eb pakthyeshme ndaj mjedisit (rritje e nivelit t\u00eb deteve, dezertifikim, ngjarje metreologjike ekstreme dhe t\u00eb paparashikuara dhe tjet\u00ebr). Preokupimi p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb e saj p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb pas Marr\u00ebveshjes s\u00eb Klim\u00ebs t\u00eb Parisit t\u00eb 2015 nga krer\u00ebt e fuqive t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt i kan\u00eb vendosur limite emetimit t\u00eb gazit ser\u00eb dhe fiksuar pragun maksimal t\u00eb ngrohjes globale. Nga marr\u00ebveshje t\u00eb tilla, n\u00eb n\u00ebntorin e 2019, presidenti Trump, me mosmiratimin e nj\u00eb pjese konsistente t\u00eb opinionit publik amerikan, ishte disociuar, me q\u00ebllim q\u00eb t\u00eb ruante interesat ekonomike e vendit t\u00eb tij, por n\u00eb realitet p\u00ebr t\u00eb k\u00ebnqaur pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt e nxjerrjes s\u00eb qymyrit, q\u00eb e kishin votuar. Presidenti i ri Biden ka rihyr\u00eb n\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjen e Parisit, si\u00e7 kishte premtuar gjat\u00eb fushat\u00ebs elektorale, menj\u00ebher\u00eb pas zgjedhjes s\u00eb tij (21 janar 2021). Kjo ka qen\u00eb masa e par\u00eb e presidenc\u00ebs s\u00eb tij. Tani, n\u00ebse vendet e m\u00ebdha eksportuese t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe gazit synojn\u00eb q\u00eb ta ruajn\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb e tyre, duhet t\u2019i paraprijn\u00eb t\u00eb ashtuquajturit \u00abtranzicion energjitik\u00bb, duke p\u00ebrfituar nga resurset e m\u00ebdha financiare e fondeve t\u00eb tyre sovrane p\u00ebr t\u00eb investuar n\u00eb sektorin e energjive t\u00eb rinovueshme. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb sidomos p\u00ebr vendet e Gjirit, Arabia Saudite in primis<\/em>. Me nj\u00eb q\u00ebllim t\u00eb till\u00eb ato duhet t\u00eb kryejn\u00eb blerje masive teknologjie t\u00eb \u00abblert\u00eb\u00bb. Shteti q\u00eb n\u00eb at\u00eb rajon \u00ebsht\u00eb prodhuesi kryesor dhe eksportues \u00ebsht\u00eb Izraeli. N\u00eb mas\u00eb t\u00eb madhe, kjo shpjegon ar\u00ebsyen politiko \u2013 ekonomike t\u00eb Marr\u00ebveshjeve p\u00ebr t\u00eb cil\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb folur m\u00eb sip\u00ebr.<\/p>\n \u00c7\u00ebshtja e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb hidrokarbureve dhe <\/strong>\u00ab<\/strong>Marr\u00ebveshjet e Abrahamit<\/strong>\u00bb<\/strong><\/p>\n P\u00ebr \u00e7\u00ebshtjen e r\u00ebnies s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb hidrokarbureve n\u00eb pranver\u00ebn e 2020 dhe t\u00eb influenc\u00ebs q\u00eb kjo ka pasur m\u00eb pas \u2013 bashk\u00eb me kriz\u00ebn klimaterike dhe ngrohjen globale t\u00eb viteve t\u00eb fundit \u2013 mbi t\u00eb ashtuquajturat \u00abMarr\u00ebveshje t\u00eb Abrahamit\u00bb e ka trajtuar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb analitike dhe t\u00eb sakt\u00eb studiuesi i bot\u00ebs arabe Gilles Kepel n\u00eb librin e tij Rikthimi i Profetit<\/em>. Ai referohet q\u00eb m\u00eb 6 mars 2020, kur kriza pandemike ishte ende n\u00eb fillime, OPEC Plus (Organizata e Vendeve Eksportuese t\u00eb Naft\u00ebs), me pjes\u00ebmarrjen e jasht\u00ebzakonshme t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb mbledhur n\u00eb Vjen\u00eb p\u00ebr ta trajtuar \u00e7\u00ebshtjen e kriz\u00ebs petrolifere, q\u00eb kishte ndikuar fuqimisht mbi eksportimin e hidrokarbureve fosile n\u00eb nivel global. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb seli, Riadi dhe Moska \u2013 respektivisht prodhuesi i dyt\u00eb dhe i tret\u00eb bot\u00ebror t\u00eb naft\u00ebs \u2013 jan\u00eb akorduar p\u00ebr ta luftuar s\u00ebbashku hegjemonin\u00eb amerikane n\u00eb sektorin nxjerr\u00ebs (15% e totalit t\u00eb fu\u00e7ive t\u00eb prodhuara \u00e7do dit\u00eb n\u00eb bot\u00eb, kundrejt 12% \u2013 13% e dy vendeve t\u00eb tjera konkurruese) dhe p\u00ebr ta kufizuar influenc\u00ebn politike t\u00eb saj n\u00eb teatra t\u00eb ndryshme luftarake bot\u00ebrore (n\u00eb ve\u00e7anti, ato t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme ku Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb e pranishme). Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb mister q\u00eb prej disa vitesh Shtetet e Bashkuara e kan\u00eb arritur t\u00eb ashtuquajtur\u00ebn \u00abvet\u00ebp\u00ebrmbajtje n\u00eb fush\u00ebn energjitike\u00bb, duke u b\u00ebr\u00eb jo m\u00eb, si n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn, importues t\u00eb \u00abarit t\u00eb zi\u00bb, por eksportues t\u00eb nj\u00eb produkti t\u00eb till\u00eb n\u00eb nivel global. Nga k\u00ebtu strategjia politike e president\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit amerikan\u00eb (Obama, Trump dhe Biden), q\u00eb tenton ta braktisin Lindjen e Mesme, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb vendin e p\u00ebrq\u00ebndrimit m\u00eb t\u00eb madh petrolifer t\u00eb planetit, duke i dh\u00ebn\u00eb fund t\u00eb ashtuquajturave \u00abluft\u00ebra n\u00eb shkret\u00ebtir\u00eb\u00bb. P\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, Lindja e Mesme nuk do t\u00eb konsiderohej m\u00eb nj\u00eb territor strategjik p\u00ebr interesat amerikane, Shtetet e Bashkuara mund t\u00eb spostonin njer\u00ebz dhe mjete t\u00eb dislokuara n\u00eb ato vende drejt rajonit indo \u2013 paq\u00ebsor, me q\u00ebllim q\u00eb t\u00eb kontrolloj\u00eb ose, m\u00eb mir\u00eb, t\u00eb frenoj\u00eb ekspansionin e Kin\u00ebs, rivales s\u00eb re t\u00eb tyre. Kjo shpjegon edhe t\u00ebrheqjen e koh\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit, katastrofike \u2013 prej modaliteteve me t\u00eb cilat \u00ebsht\u00eb realizuar \u2013 e forcave amerikane nga Afganistani, n\u00eb fillimet e shtatorit 2021, pas 20 vitesh t\u00eb gjata q\u00ebndrimi n\u00eb rajon.<\/p>\n Duke u kthyer n\u00eb takimin e Vjen\u00ebs t\u00eb 2020, n\u00eb at\u00eb seli p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesi i Rusis\u00eb ka njoftuar vendimin e Kremlinit \u00abp\u00ebr ta rritur prodhimin rus p\u00ebr t\u00eb ulur \u00e7mimin e fu\u00e7is\u00eb s\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjet e prodhueshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb shistit, duke i d\u00ebmtuar n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb kompanit\u00eb nxjerr\u00ebse amerikane t\u00eb Teksasit dhe t\u00eb Alask\u00ebs\u00bb dhe duke i nxjerr jasht\u00eb tregut. Arabia Saudite \u00ebsht\u00eb par\u00eb e detyruar q\u00eb ta ndjek\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb strategji t\u00eb vendosur nga Moska, p\u00ebr ta kompensuar r\u00ebnien e \u00e7mimit me nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb prodhimit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs. \u00c7mimi ka r\u00ebn\u00eb k\u00ebshtu me 50% n\u00eb mars, duke prekur 32 dollar\u00ebt p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i. N\u00eb 2021 \u00ebsht\u00eb ringritur, duke arritur n\u00eb muajin tetor 80 \u2013 82 dollar\u00ebt p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i. Fitimi i munguar i vendeve eksportuese t\u00eb naft\u00ebs e Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme dhe e Afrik\u00ebs Veriore ka qen\u00eb i konsideruesh\u00ebm dhe ka kontribuar t\u2019i dob\u00ebsoj\u00eb k\u00ebto ekonomi t\u00eb brishta, q\u00eb pak m\u00eb pas do t\u00eb p\u00ebrballonin kriz\u00ebn e pandemis\u00eb s\u00eb Covid-19, duke p\u00ebsuar nj\u00eb num\u00ebr konsistent t\u00eb vdekurisht. Koh\u00ebt e fundit, n\u00eb fillimet e n\u00ebntorit, presidenti i Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara \u00ebsht\u00eb rikthyer mbi tem\u00ebn e naft\u00ebs: k\u00ebsaj radhe duke nxitur \u00abpadron\u00ebt e arit t\u00eb zi\u00bb q\u00eb t\u00eb rrisnin prodhimin dhe t\u00eb mbanin n\u00ebn kontroll \u00e7mimin. \u00abOPEC Plus, ka th\u00ebn\u00eb presidenti, me ton akuzues, nuk kurohet duke p\u00ebrdorur kapacitetin dhe pushtetin e saj p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndihmuar rigjall\u00ebrimin global n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment kritik p\u00ebr vendet e t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebs\u00bb. Ve\u00e7 t\u00eb tjerash, duhet n\u00ebnvizuar se kufizimet e vendosur nga karteli ruso \u2013 saudit n\u00eb muajt e lockdown <\/em>kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb t\u00eb ngrihen \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara me 60%.<\/p>\n Duke u kthyer n\u00eb faktet e pranver\u00ebs s\u00eb 2020, kombinimi midis pandemis\u00eb dhe r\u00ebnies s\u00eb \u00e7mimit t\u00eb hidrokarbureve e ka goditur r\u00ebnd\u00eb pjes\u00ebn e madhe e vendeve t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme, duke i destabilizuar kuadrin politik dhe duke i dob\u00ebsuar ekonomin\u00eb. \u00abShoq\u00ebrit\u00eb civile, shkruan Kepel, jan\u00eb rigjetur n\u00ebn k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimin e r\u00ebnies s\u00eb fitimeve t\u00eb ardhura nga t\u00eb ardhurat e naft\u00ebs dhe gazit q\u00eb ia kishin vonuar zhvillimin e nj\u00eb sip\u00ebrmarrjeje prodhuese\u00bb. Kjo situat\u00eb, pohon studiuesi, i ka dob\u00ebsuar m\u00eb tej shtetet arabe m\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebta: faktikisht, fitimi i munguar p\u00ebr vende t\u00eb tilla \u00ebsht\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar n\u00eb korrik nga FMN n\u00eb 270 miliard dollar\u00eb. Nj\u00eb situat\u00eb e till\u00eb ka hapur n\u00eb fakt perspektiva t\u00eb reja p\u00ebr vendet m\u00eb t\u00eb forta dhe kohezive, q\u00eb \u00abb\u00ebjn\u00eb nj\u00eb rekurs t\u00eb vazhduesh\u00ebm me provokim ushtarak dhe me rilan\u00e7imin ideologjik, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt kan\u00eb m\u00ebsuar ta akaparojn\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb postin e loj\u00ebs, duke p\u00ebrfituar nga tronditja q\u00eb ka tronditur t\u00eb gjith\u00eb zon\u00ebn e Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme\u00bb. Paras\u00ebgjithash Turqia, q\u00eb ka p\u00ebrfituar shum\u00eb nga situata e kriz\u00ebs q\u00eb kishte nisur t\u00eb krijohej n\u00eb vendet arabe prodhuese t\u00eb naft\u00ebs. K\u00ebshtu presidenti Erdo\u01e7an, duke b\u00ebr\u00eb lev\u00eb mbi situat\u00ebn kontigjente, ka k\u00ebrkuar t\u00eb rifitoj\u00eb, si n\u00eb planin ekonomik dhe politik, ashtu edhe n\u00eb at\u00eb ideologjik e fetar, nj\u00eb hegjemoni rajonale, q\u00eb n\u00eb koh\u00ebt e fundit, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb p\u00ebrplasjeve t\u00eb brendshme dhe t\u00eb luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Siri, ishte ridimensionuar fuqimisht.<\/p>\n Tur<\/strong>q<\/strong>ia <\/strong>dh<\/strong>e<\/strong> politika <\/strong>\u00abneootoman<\/strong>e<\/strong>\u00bb<\/strong> e saj<\/strong><\/p>\n Kriza e vendeve arabe i ka ofruar Turqis\u00eb mund\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebhet protagoniste, bashk\u00eb me Rusin\u00eb, n\u00eb skakier\u00ebn politike mesdhetare dhe t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme. Nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb, duke avancuar pretendime mbi disa territore n\u00eb kufirin turko \u2013 sirian, n\u00eb prizmin e siguris\u00eb (dometh\u00ebn\u00eb antikurd), por n\u00eb realitet ta rris\u00eb pranin\u00eb e saj n\u00eb at\u00eb rajon shum\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm n\u00eb planin strategjik dhe ta peshoj\u00eb rolin e saj n\u00eb nj\u00eb negociat\u00eb eventual paqeje. Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, duke u ulur n\u00eb Libi, si nga k\u00ebrkesa e autoritetit t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb s\u00eb Tripolit me q\u00ebllim q\u00eb t\u00eb luftoj\u00eb gjeneralin Haftar, zot i Cirenaica, i mb\u00ebshtetur nga Rusia, nga Egjipti dhe, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb fsheht\u00eb, edhe nga Franca. K\u00ebshtu Turqia ushtron hegjemonin\u00eb e saj mbi t\u00eb gjith\u00eb rajonin e Tripolitania dhe at\u00eb kontrollon vendburime t\u00eb pasura petrolifere. Faktikisht, sot Libia \u00ebsht\u00eb e ndar\u00eb midis Rusis\u00eb, e pranishme n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet ushtar\u00ebve mercenar\u00eb n\u00eb Cirenaica e n\u00eb Fezzan, dhe Turqis\u00eb, q\u00eb ka sht\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb dor\u00eb pjes\u00ebn veriore t\u00eb vendit. Raporti midis t\u00eb dy fuqive p\u00ebrshkruhet nga disa studiues si nj\u00eb \u00abrivalitet bashk\u00ebpunues\u00bb. Faktikisht, pas nj\u00eb periudhe t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr lufte t\u00eb armatosur, ata kan\u00eb prodhuar nj\u00eb lloj \u00abngrirjeje\u00bb t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs, duke qen\u00eb \u00abt\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb sponsor\u00ebt dominues t\u00eb dy pal\u00ebve n\u00eb luft\u00eb p\u00ebr pushtet\u00bb. Ve\u00e7 t\u00eb tjerash, duhet n\u00ebnvizuar se prania e turqve n\u00eb Libi i p\u00ebrgjigjet nevojave t\u00eb sakta gjeostrategjike t\u00eb \u00abfuqis\u00eb otomane\u00bb t\u00eb re emergjente, q\u00eb synon ta zgjeroj\u00eb influenc\u00ebn e saj mbi Mesdheun Lindor. Gj\u00eb q\u00eb i preokupon jo pak Shtetet e Bashkuara, t\u00eb cilat do t\u00eb donin ta ridimensiononin pesh\u00ebn politike e aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb tyre n\u00eb NATO mbi nj\u00eb rajon q\u00eb futet n\u00eb sfer\u00ebn e tyre t\u00eb influenc\u00ebs dhe q\u00eb p\u00ebr Uashingtonin \u2013 me motiv ngushticat e Bosforit \u2013 \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme. Turqia, q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e varf\u00ebr me hidrokarbure, p\u00ebrfiton nga prania e tij n\u00eb Libi \u2013 vend i pasur me naft\u00eb \u2013 p\u00ebr t\u00eb k\u00ebrkuar n\u00eb Mare nostrum <\/em>vendburime n\u00ebnujore gazi. Nga qeveria e Tripolitania \u2013 n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb i mbajtur nga al-Serraj \u2013 si kompensim p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrhyrjen e armatosur, n\u00eb n\u00ebndorin e 2019 Erdo\u01e7an ka pasur kon\u00e7ensionin e nj\u00eb \u00abZone Ekonomike Ekskluzive\u00bb, shum\u00eb i favorsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr Turqin\u00eb, por q\u00eb sulmon zonat detare greke dhe qipriote. Kjo i ka dh\u00ebn\u00eb nisje grindjeve diplomatike t\u00eb pafund, q\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen mund t\u00eb shp\u00ebrthejn\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb armatosur, duke qen\u00eb q\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtja e nd\u00ebrlikuar p\u00ebrfshihen \u00abuj\u00ebra\u00bb t\u00eb rivendikuara edhe nga Egjipti dhe nga Izraeli.<\/p>\n Turqia kontrollon edhe dy rrug\u00ebt kryesore e emigracionit klandestin q\u00eb vijn\u00eb nga Azia dhe nga Afrika e t\u00eb drejtuara drejt Europ\u00ebs: n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet detit Egje dhe Ballkanit, nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb, dhe n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet bregut libian, nga ana tjet\u00ebr. Kjo i jep Ankaras\u00eb rasti q\u00eb t\u00eb kap\u00eb pretendime neoimperialiste \u2013 ose neootomane, sipas disave \u2013 mbi zon\u00ebn e Mesdheut dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbajtur n\u00ebn gjendje shahu Bashkimin Europian, me k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimin e \u00abhapjes s\u00eb rubinetave t\u00eb emigracionit klandestin\u00bb. Bashkimi Europian \u00ebsht\u00eb detyruar t\u00eb paguaj\u00eb shuma t\u00eb m\u00ebdha parash\u00eb \u2013 deri m\u00eb tani 6 miliard euro \u2013 q\u00eb t\u00eb mund t\u00eb kontrolloj\u00eb \u00abkorridoret\u00bb e emigracionit. Rikthimi n\u00eb kult, m\u00eb 24 korrik t\u00eb 2020, i Xhamis\u00eb s\u00eb Sh\u00ebn Sofis\u00eb, t\u00eb cil\u00ebn Mustafa Kemal Atat\u00fcrk, themeluesi i shtetit modern turk, e kishte konvertuar n\u00eb muzeum, futej n\u00eb projektin ambicioz e riislamizimit t\u00eb Turqis\u00eb. Ve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, ajo n\u00ebnkuptohej t\u00eb demonstronte, emblematikisht, hegjemonin\u00eb turko \u2013 otomane mbi islamin sunit, n\u00eb vend t\u00eb Arabis\u00eb Saudite, vendit t\u00eb dy xhamive kryesore, q\u00eb num\u00ebron rreth 85% t\u00eb 1.5 miliard\u00ebve t\u00eb mysliman\u00ebve t\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebs. Praktikisht, ambicia e Erdo\u01e7an \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u2019i rikthej\u00eb Stambollit rolin e kryeqytetit bot\u00ebror t\u00eb besimtar\u00ebve, t\u00eb ashtuquajtur\u00ebs Umma<\/em>. Megjithat\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb jet\u00eb e leht\u00eb q\u00eb ta realizoj\u00eb: faktikisht, \u00abarab\u00ebt\u00bb dhe jo \u00abturqit\u00bb do t\u00eb ken\u00eb privilegjin e p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsimit, nga pik\u00ebpamja kulturore, gjuh\u00ebsore dhe fetare, qendr\u00ebn e bot\u00ebs islamike globale.<\/p>\n \u00c7\u00ebshtja izraelo \u2013 palestineze n\u00eb kontekstin e ri historik bot\u00ebror<\/strong><\/p>\n Faktet p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat kemi folur nd\u00ebrthuren me nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr \u00e7\u00ebshtje vendimtare: \u00e7impenjimin e Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara n\u00eb Lindje t\u00eb Mesme, e nisur ndrydhur n\u00eb koh\u00ebt e Obamas dhe i vazhduar me m\u00eb vendosm\u00ebri n\u00ebn Trump dhe Biden. Akti i fundit dometh\u00ebn\u00ebs i nj\u00eb procesi t\u00eb till\u00eb ka qen\u00eb braktisja e fundit, nga ana amerikane, e Afganistanit. Ai do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb gjykohet n\u00eb periudh\u00eb afatmesme \u2013 larg\u00ebt, edhe pse efektet e saj jan\u00eb deri m\u00eb tani t\u00eb qarta: faktikisht, ajo u mund\u00ebson strateg\u00ebve amerikane t\u00eb \u00abrivendosin\u00bb njer\u00ebz dhe n\u00eb fronte m\u00eb strategjike dhe jetike p\u00ebr interesat amerikane, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb frontin e ri t\u00eb rezistenc\u00ebs, at\u00eb t\u00eb indo \u2013 paq\u00ebsorit. Lidhur me t\u00ebrheqjen e ushtar\u00ebve amerikane, studiuesi i gjeopolitik\u00ebs Dario Fabbri ka shkruar: \u00abP\u00ebrtej \u00e7do vler\u00ebsimi t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm, superfuqia ka mbetur deri shum\u00eb n\u00eb vendin e pamundur t\u00eb Azis\u00eb Qendrore, kontekst me r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi dyt\u00ebsore, i paaft\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb mbi konkurrenc\u00ebn p\u00ebr supremacin\u00eb planetare. P\u00ebr amerikan\u00ebt qe \u00e7menduri t\u00eb shkonin 20 vite m\u00eb par\u00eb, do t\u00eb ishte e pakuptimt\u00eb t\u00eb q\u00ebndronin edhe nj\u00eb dit\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb\u00bb. Objektivi i fundit i Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara, vazhdon Fabbri, \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb t\u2019u l\u00ebn\u00eb antagonist\u00ebve t\u00eb tyre r\u00ebnd\u00ebsin\u00eb e marrjes me nj\u00eb territor kaq kompleks si Afganistani, i z\u00ebn\u00eb midis etnive t\u00eb ndryshme, shum\u00eb luftarake dhe \u00abi sh\u00ebnuar nga nj\u00eb horografi tejet impenjative\u00bb. Konkurrent\u00ebt e rinj mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb si Kina \u2013 e preokupuar nga mund\u00ebsia q\u00eb Afganistani t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbys\u00eb Pakistanin, terminal vendimtar i rrug\u00ebve t\u00eb reja t\u00eb m\u00ebndafshit \u2013 ashtu edhe Rusia \u2013 q\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb donte t\u00eb krijohej nj\u00eb boshll\u00ebk n\u00eb kufijt\u00eb e saj \u2013 por edhe Turqia dhe Irani, t\u00eb interesuar q\u00eb t\u2019i zgjasin tentakulat e tyre deri n\u00eb k\u00ebto rajone.<\/p>\n Duke u kthyer n\u00eb tem\u00ebn kryesore e k\u00ebtij artikulli, sipas sociologut anglez Michael Young, \u00e7impenjimi amerikan nga Lindja e Mesme mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb efekte sigurisht pozitive, duke i shtyr\u00eb shtetet arabe q\u00eb t\u00eb jen\u00eb m\u00eb realist\u00eb dhe t\u00eb marrin n\u00eb dor\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen e tyre. Nd\u00ebrkaq, ky \u00e7impenjim ka gjeneruar dinamika rajona\u00ebe t\u00eb reja q\u00eb kan\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb diskutim paradigma t\u00eb tyre t\u00eb s\u00eb kaluars dhe dob\u00ebsuar siguri q\u00eb deri pak koh\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb dukeshin t\u00eb mbyllura. P\u00ebr shembull, pyet sociologu, \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb rajon fakti i normalizimit t\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve diplomatike midis Izraelit dhe shteteve arabe, si\u00e7 parashikohet nga \u00abMarr\u00ebveshja e Abrahamit\u00bb? motivacionet m\u00eb t\u00eb thella, p\u00ebrgjigjet ai, ndryshojn\u00eb nga vendi n\u00eb vend, por \u00abn\u00eb kompleks k\u00ebto marr\u00ebveshje flakin tej nj\u00eb siguri dikur e strukturuar: at\u00eb t\u00eb rezistenc\u00ebs t\u00eb konfliktit arabo \u2013 palestinez. Natyrisht q\u00eb mund ta shp\u00ebrfilli, k\u00ebt\u00eb tradh\u00ebti t\u00eb palestinez\u00ebve nga ana e bashk\u00ebv\u00ebllez\u00ebrve t\u00eb tyre arab\u00eb, por n\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00ebnyra kjo dinamik\u00eb mund edhe t\u2019i avantazhoj\u00eb, pasi do ta shtr\u00ebngoj\u00eb nj\u00eb gjenerat\u00eb t\u00eb re palestinez\u00ebsh q\u00eb ta rimendoj\u00eb qasjen e tyre me armikun e p\u00ebrjetsh\u00ebm, larg nga manipulimet arabe\u00bb. Kjo p\u00ebr t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptuar se palestinez\u00ebt, sidomos t\u00eb rinjt\u00eb, q\u00eb nuk i kan\u00eb p\u00ebrjetuar element\u00ebt themelues t\u00eb shtetit t\u00eb Izraelit dhe, p\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, jan\u00eb m\u00eb pak t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb nga pik\u00ebpamja emotive, nuk kan\u00eb zgjedhje tjet\u00ebr se t\u00eb thon\u00eb izraelian\u00ebve se, n\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb shteti t\u00eb tyrin, duan dhe duan t\u00eb g\u00ebzojn\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha t\u00eb drejtat civile dhe politike q\u00eb nj\u00eb shtet normal bikomb\u00ebtar duhet t\u2019u siguroj\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00ebve.<\/p>\n Faktikisht, duke normalizuar raportet e tyre me Izraelin, shum\u00eb shtete arabe n\u00eb nj\u00eb far\u00eb m\u00ebnyre e kan\u00eb l\u00ebn\u00eb topin n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e homologut, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb Izraelit, dhe p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb rezultati aktualisht \u00ebsht\u00eb aspak i qart\u00eb, pavar\u00ebsisht se tani, duke konsideruar realitetin e fakteve, mund\u00ebsit\u00eb e zgjedhjes jan\u00eb t\u00eb kufizuara: \u00abOse t\u00eb pranojn\u00eb nj\u00eb shtet bikomb\u00ebtar, ose do t\u00eb duhet t\u2019i p\u00ebrz\u00ebn\u00eb palestinez\u00ebt nga Cisjordania dhe Jeruzalemi, ose t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatiten p\u00ebr t\u2019i shtypur p\u00ebrgjithmon\u00eb. Cilido ospion q\u00eb zgjidhet, do t\u00eb cop\u00ebtohen themelet virtuoze e tashme t\u00eb shtetit hebraik\u00bb. P\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, konflikti arabo \u2013 izraelian, pas \u00abMarr\u00ebveshjeve t\u00eb Abrahamit\u00bb, do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb rip\u00ebrcaktohet thell\u00ebsisht dhe k\u00ebsaj radhe pavar\u00ebsisht nga manipulimi dhe nga shantazhi i vendeve arabe, q\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn shpesh e kan\u00eb penguar nj\u00eb zgjidhje, p\u00ebr motive si politike, ashtu edhe ideologjike. Kjo nuk do t\u00eb mund t\u2019i vij\u00eb p\u00ebr shtat kauz\u00ebs palestineze, tashm\u00eb 70 vje\u00e7are e vjet\u00ebr. Ve\u00e7 t\u00eb tjerash, nj\u00eb kauz\u00eb q\u00eb nuk duket se i apasionon m\u00eb sheshet arabe, q\u00eb \u00abnxehen\u00bb dhe rianimohen, her\u00ebpas\u00ebhere, p\u00ebr tema m\u00eb konkrete dhe m\u00eb kontigjente, si rivendikimet me natyr\u00eb ekonomike (rritje e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb mallrave t\u00eb konsumit, pun\u00eb dhe ruajtje e sh\u00ebndetit) dhe k\u00ebrkes\u00eb p\u00ebr liri m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe n\u00eb aspektin politik dhe civil. Tash e prapa, ka mund\u00ebsi, do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb m\u00ebsohemi t\u00eb shikojm\u00eb apo t\u00eb imagjinojm\u00eb nj\u00eb Lindje t\u00eb Mesme pa pranin\u00eb e sh\u00ebmtuar amerikane dhe pa konfliktin e vjet\u00ebr, por ideologjikisht pjellor, arabo \u2013 palestinez dhe s\u00eb fundi, edhe pse n\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larg\u00ebt, nj\u00eb Lindje t\u00eb Mesme pa naft\u00eb. Nuk duket e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, por do t\u00eb ishte e urueshme.<\/p>\n (nga La Civilta Cattolica<\/em>)<\/p>\n P\u00ebrgatiti<\/strong><\/p>\n ARMIN TIRANA<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" N\u00eb dy vitet e fundit rendi bot\u00ebror \u00ebsht\u00eb tronditur nga pandemia q\u00eb i detyrohet Covid-19, i cili ka gjeneruar variante t\u00eb reja gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb agresive, duke shkaktuar n\u00eb vende t\u00eb ndryshme \u2013 sidomos ku vaksinat mungojn\u00eb \u2013 miliona t\u00eb vdekur dhe nga kriza klimaterike, q\u00eb nga viti n\u00eb vit b\u00ebhet m\u00eb akute dhe m\u00eb …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4812,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4811"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4811"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4811\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4812"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4811"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4811"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4811"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}