{"id":47697,"date":"2023-06-05T08:19:03","date_gmt":"2023-06-05T08:19:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/?p=47697"},"modified":"2023-06-05T08:19:03","modified_gmt":"2023-06-05T08:19:03","slug":"nje-lloj-i-ri-lufte-boterore","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/2023\/06\/05\/nje-lloj-i-ri-lufte-boterore\/","title":{"rendered":"Nj\u00eb lloj i ri lufte bot\u00ebrore"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Retorika nuk e shmang p\u00ebrplasjen totale. N\u00eb betej\u00ebn cfilit\u00ebse Ukraina do t\u2019i ezauroj\u00eb e para forcat. Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebrkim t\u00eb vet\u00ebvendosjes komb\u00ebtare t\u00eb saj dhe luan gjith\u00e7ka. Amerika ka vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar. Po hapet nj\u00eb er\u00eb e re.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Fushata ushtarake ruse n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb vazhdon tashm\u00eb prej m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb viti: si\u00e7 ndodh shpesh, operacionet ushtarake nuk kan\u00eb shkuar si\u00e7 kan\u00eb qen\u00eb planifikuar. Shoku i provuar n\u00eb shkurtin e 2022 nga pjesa m\u00eb e madhe e politikan\u00ebve, diplomat\u00ebve, analist\u00ebve do t\u00eb ishte edhe m\u00eb e madhe n\u00ebse do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb parashikohej qysh nga fillimi natyra dhe jet\u00ebgjat\u00ebsia e k\u00ebtij konflikti. Gjat\u00eb vitit t\u00eb fundit ka ndodhur ajo q\u00eb ndodh gjithmon\u00eb: ngjarje q\u00eb dikur dukeshin t\u00eb pamendueshme si rutin\u00eb, n\u00eb mos norma. Shum\u00eb prej rus\u00ebve kund\u00ebrshtar\u00eb me luft\u00ebn kan\u00eb l\u00ebn\u00eb vendin (flitet p\u00ebr qindramij\u00ebra persona). Kush ka mbetur n\u00eb favor t\u00eb zgjedhjeve t\u00eb Mosk\u00ebs, ruan nj\u00eb indiferenc\u00eb apo e njeh entitetin e problemeve, por mendohet se duhet t\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb bashk\u00eb me vendin edhe n\u00eb k\u00ebto koh\u00ebra t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira. Sot \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb se Ukraina \u00ebsht\u00eb distancuar nga e kaluara. Mbyllet nj\u00eb epok\u00eb, q\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb kthehet t\u00eb varet nga rezultatet e k\u00ebtij konflikti. Nuk b\u00ebhej fjal\u00eb vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr pasLuft\u00ebn e Ftoht\u00eb, edhe pse i referohet sidomos 30 viteve t\u00eb fundit. B\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb er\u00eb ku nj\u00eb luft\u00eb midis vendeve t\u00eb m\u00ebdha nuk konsiderohej si zgjidhje e mundshme e grindjeve gjeopolitike. M\u00eb thjesht\u00eb, b\u00ebhej fjal\u00eb p\u00ebrt\u00eb gjith\u00eb periudh\u00ebn q\u00eb ka pasuar konfliktin e dyt\u00eb bot\u00ebror dhe q\u00eb ka marr\u00eb form\u00ebn e Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb e pastaj at\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00eb ashtuquajturit rendin nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar liberal. Ajo q\u00eb k\u00ebto periudha kishin t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt qe dominimi i superfuqive (fillimisht dy, m\u00eb pas nj\u00eb) mbi gjeopolitik\u00ebn bot\u00ebrore dhe ekzistenca e nj\u00eb sistemi institucionesh q\u00eb p\u00ebrjashtonte \u00e7do mas\u00eb direkte dhe ballore t\u00eb raporteve t\u00eb forc\u00ebs.<\/p>\n<p>Nga frik\u00ebsimi i dikursh\u00ebm ka mbetur nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e vetme, ndoshta m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishmja: arm\u00ebt b\u00ebrthamore. \u00cbsht\u00eb ruajtur vet\u00ebdija se nj\u00eb konflikt midis fuqive t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, t\u00eb gjitha t\u00eb pajisura me bomb\u00ebn atomike, ka shum\u00eb t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb q\u00eb \u00e7on n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb atomike. Ky mekaniz\u00ebm frik\u00ebsimi \u00ebsht\u00eb ende i vlefsh\u00ebm. Pa arm\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore, Rusia dhe NATO nuk do ta p\u00ebrkrahnin m\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb hibride, por nj\u00eb n\u00eb kuptimin e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb t\u00eb fjal\u00ebs n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb. Megjithat\u00eb, n\u00eb radh\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb, frika q\u00eb ngjall lufta atomike \u00ebsht\u00eb qartazi shum\u00eb m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt sesa e 40 \u2013 50 viteve m\u00eb par\u00eb. N\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb b\u00ebhej fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb eventualitet p\u00ebr t\u2019u shmangur n\u00eb \u00e7do rrethan\u00eb; tani mbi k\u00ebto rrethana fillohet t\u00eb reflektohet, edhe pse deri m\u00eb tani vet\u00ebm n\u00eb fantazit\u00eb m\u00eb mizore dhe t\u00eb pap\u00ebrgjegjshme. N\u00eb radh\u00eb t\u00eb dyt\u00eb, shembulli i fushat\u00ebs ukrainase demonstron se shkalla e p\u00ebrplasjes indirekte, edhe pse haptazi e deklaruar, mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhej shum\u00eb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb. Largohet me fjal\u00eb eventualiteti t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren mjete ekstreme, duke dh\u00ebn\u00eb p\u00ebrshtypjen se \u00e7\u00ebshtja \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrjashtuar. Por nuk ekziston siguria se nuk b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr nj\u00eb iluzion. Spektri i luft\u00ebs bot\u00ebrore profilohet e pap\u00eblqyeshme n\u00eb retorik\u00ebn e t\u00eb gjitha pal\u00ebve n\u00eb loj\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>Gjysma e dyt\u00eb e \u2018900 na ka m\u00ebsuar me iden\u00eb se lufta bot\u00ebrore \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundur. Arm\u00ebt b\u00ebrthamore, q\u00eb ngjallin frik\u00eb sepse projektojn\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrimin e planetit, i kan\u00eb shkat\u00ebrruar n\u00eb syt\u00eb e fuqive q\u00eb e mbajn\u00eb zakonin e sqarimit t\u00eb raporteve t\u00eb forc\u00ebs n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet p\u00ebrplasjes ushtarake. N\u00ebse konfrontimet ndodhin indirekt, n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet t\u00eb tret\u00ebve, at\u00ebhere nuk ka limite p\u00ebrve\u00e7 atyre t\u00eb resurseve t\u00eb disponueshme, por n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb direkte, \u00e7\u00ebshtja \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrjashtuar. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kuptim atomi \u00abjopaq\u00ebsor\u00bb ishte disiplinuar. Megjithat\u00eb kishte si kund\u00ebrindikues desensbilizimin: n\u00eb momentin ku \u00ebsht\u00eb bindur se nuk do t\u00eb shp\u00ebrthej\u00eb m\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb bot\u00ebrore, hapet nj\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb e madhe dhe e pafundme manovre p\u00eblr grindjet lokale pakashum\u00eb intensive. K\u00ebto grindje kan\u00eb fundin e testimit t\u00eb an\u00ebve m\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebta t\u00eb konkurrentit dhe n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet t\u00eb cilit mund t\u00eb \u00abl\u00ebvizje\u00bb duke akumuluar pika ekstra n\u00eb nj\u00eb duel t\u00eb pafund\u00ebm q\u00eb nuk e parashikon nj\u00eb fitore me KO (fitorja n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn e Ftoht\u00eb, n\u00eb fund t\u00eb fundit, \u00ebsht\u00eb arritur n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb papritur: nj\u00ebri prej kund\u00ebrshtar\u00ebve thjesht ka braktisur ringun). N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kuptim, Lufta e Ftoht\u00eb nuk ishte m\u00eb pak \u00abhibride\u00bb se ajo q\u00eb shikojm\u00eb t\u00eb zhvillohen sot n\u00eb sken\u00ebn nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, pavar\u00ebsisht se asnj\u00eb nuk m\u00eb ka ardhur n\u00eb mendje se quhet k\u00ebshtu.<\/p>\n<p>Megjithat\u00eb edhe lufta bot\u00ebrore \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb \u00abbot\u00ebrore\u00bb jo n\u00eb momentin n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn luftohej, por m\u00eb pas, e r\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb historike. Mobilizimet masive t\u00eb ver\u00ebs dhe t\u00eb vjesht\u00ebs 1914 nuk i d\u00ebrgonin europian\u00ebt n\u00eb frontet e nj\u00eb \u00ablufte bot\u00ebrore\u00bb. Ve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb optimiste, parashikohej se konflikti do t\u00eb zgjaste deri p\u00ebr Krishtlindje, kur t\u00eb gjith\u00eb do t\u00eb ktheheshin n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi. Inercia e perceptimit e dh\u00ebn\u00eb nga luft\u00ebrat e shpeshta t\u00eb \u2018800 dhe \u2018900, nganj\u00ebher\u00eb brutale, por t\u00eb kufizuara \u2013 luft\u00ebra q\u00eb shkonin t\u00eb \u00abkorrigjonin\u00bb ekuilibrat e pushtetit \u2013 pengoi t\u00eb besohej n\u00eb mund\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb shp\u00ebrthente nj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje destruktive totale. Nj\u00eb vet\u00ebdije e till\u00eb erdhi gradualisht, me shum\u00ebfishimin e humbjeve, me mas\u00ebn gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb luftimeve dhe t\u00eb pasojave t\u00eb tyre. N\u00eb fillimin e shekullit t\u00eb kaluar politikan\u00ebt europiane\u00eb p\u00ebrkundeshin n\u00eb bindjen se brenda sistemit t\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve t\u00eb vendosur (ai \u00abkoncert europian\u00bb rezultat i Kongresit t\u00eb Vjen\u00ebs, megjith\u00ebse n\u00eb fillimin e \u2018900 do t\u00eb prishej fuqimisht) do t\u00eb kishte qen\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e mundur t\u00eb shmangej e pariparueshmja, pavar\u00ebsisht nga sa do t\u00eb kushtonte. Sot nj\u00eb rol i ngjash\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00ebuajtur nga funksioni shkurajues i arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore, q\u00eb e p\u00ebrjashton nj\u00eb luft\u00eb bot\u00ebrore. Por \u00e7far\u00eb n\u00ebnkupton?<\/p>\n<p>Papa e ka quajtur konfliktin n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb bot\u00ebrore q\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb shpejt, duke qen\u00eb se gjenden tashm\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshira shum\u00eb \u00abduar\u00bb dhe shum\u00eb interesa. Atdhe\u00a0 i Shenjt\u00eb ndoshta ka t\u00eb drejt\u00eb. Fushata ushtarake n\u00eb zhvillim ka t\u00eb gjitha karakteristikat e nj\u00eb sfide autentike midis fuqive t\u00eb m\u00ebdha. Disponueshm\u00ebria e arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore i jep nj\u00eb karakter special, por kjo nuk e b\u00ebn luft\u00ebn m\u00eb pak mizore apo fatale. Vet\u00eb forma e p\u00ebrplasjes \u00ebsht\u00eb e ve\u00e7ant\u00eb. Shtetet e Bashkuara (si lider t\u00eb nj\u00eb Per\u00ebndim gjenerik) jan\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb indirekt, por shum\u00eb aktivisht, duke e mbajtur n\u00eb jet\u00eb agjentin e tyre nd\u00ebrlufutes, Ukrain\u00ebn. Rusia kryen operacione ushtarake vet\u00eb, duke i p\u00ebrplasur direkt me agjentin e Amerik\u00ebs n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e betej\u00ebs. Kina q\u00ebndron menjan\u00eb, duke k\u00ebrkuar nj\u00eb ekuilib\u00ebr, por e konsideron rezultatin nj\u00eb faktor shum\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen e saj. Pavar\u00ebsisht ngurrimit kategorik t\u00eb saj p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyr\u00eb, Pekini konsideron se nj\u00eb sukses hipotetik i Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb konflikt \u00ebsht\u00eb dizavantazhues p\u00ebr Kin\u00ebn dhe do t\u00eb impenjohet q\u00eb t\u00eb mos realizohet. T\u00eb tre lojtar\u00ebt po luajn\u00eb rangun n\u00eb hierarkis\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare n\u00eb pritje t\u00eb faz\u00ebs s\u00eb ardhshme. Prej t\u00eb treve, Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo q\u00eb rrezikon m\u00eb shum\u00eb se t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt, pasi \u00ebsht\u00eb direkt e p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb dhe ka nisur praktikisht k\u00ebt\u00eb form\u00eb konflikti, pa e vler\u00ebsuar korrekt zhvillimin. Shtetet e Bashkuara kan\u00eb m\u00eb pak p\u00ebr t\u00eb humbur dhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar, edhe n\u00eb kuptimin e ngusht\u00eb ekonomik.<\/p>\n<p>Europa, aktor tjet\u00ebr i p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb konflikt, gjendet n\u00eb nj\u00eb pozicion t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb. Nuk po lufton p\u00ebr nj\u00eb rol t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm t\u00eb sajin, por ruajtjen (e pamundur) t\u00eb modus vivendi t\u00eb m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm. N\u00eb gjith\u00eb Per\u00ebndimin p\u00ebrs\u00ebritet slogani i papranueshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb \u00abrendit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar t\u00eb bazuar mbi rregullat\u00bb aktual. Megjithat\u00eb, p\u00ebr Amerik\u00ebn b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbrojtur dominimin e saj, i cili n\u00eb linj\u00eb parimore mund t\u00eb garantohet edhe n\u00eb m\u00ebnyra t\u00eb tjera. Kurse p\u00ebr Europ\u00ebn fundi i sistemit t\u00eb m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm n\u00ebnkupton zhdukjen e nj\u00eb forme ekzistence politike q\u00eb i kishte garantuar nj\u00eb sukses t\u00eb caktuar duke filluar nga \u2018900 e dyt\u00eb. Edhe duke pranuar se konflikti p\u00ebrfundon si\u00e7 uron Per\u00ebndimi, masa e ndryshimeve politike, ekonomike dhe psikologjiko \u2013 kulturore n\u00eb kontinentin europian e p\u00ebrjashton rikthimin e pik\u00ebs s\u00eb art\u00eb t\u00eb integrimit. Vendet kryesore europiane, nj\u00ebri pas tjetrit, po e kuptojn\u00eb nevoj\u00ebn e fuqizimit t\u00eb kapaciteteve t\u00eb tyre si t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb ende e qart\u00eb se deri n\u00eb \u00e7far\u00eb pike k\u00ebto kapacitete do t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebta europiane, ashtu si\u00e7 mbetet e qart\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtja e s\u00eb ardhmes s\u00eb Bashkimit Europian. N\u00eb nj\u00eb far\u00eb kuptimi, p\u00ebr Europ\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb tani e preferueshme q\u00eb konflikti t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb. Forca m\u00eb e madhe provokon konflikte t\u00eb brendshme dhe kosto ekonomike t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, ppr sh\u00ebrben edhe si ngjit\u00ebs. Aq m\u00eb shum\u00eb q\u00eb linjat kryesore t\u00eb veprimit jan\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuara nga Uashingtoni dhe Bashkimi Europian mund t\u2019 lejoj\u00eb t\u00eb mos i p\u00ebrziej\u00eb n\u00eb strategjin\u00eb e tij, p\u00ebr momentin. E gjitha kjo (nuk futemi n\u00eb merit\u00ebn e sjelljes s\u00eb aktor\u00ebve t\u00eb tjer\u00eb t\u00eb dor\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb, midis t\u00eb cilave India, Turqia, petromonarkit\u00eb e Gjirit, Irani dhe shum\u00eb vende t\u00eb tjer\u00eb q\u00eb mb\u00ebshteten mbi dividend\u00ebt e konfliktit) konfirmon mesazhin e Pap\u00ebs Fran\u00e7esku: shtrirja e interesave n\u00eb loj\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo e nj\u00eb lufte bot\u00ebrore, q\u00eb mund t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb n\u00eb koh\u00eb dhe deri t\u00eb zgjerohet, edhe me arm\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore. Sigurisht k\u00ebto gj\u00ebra e kufizojn\u00eb kuadrin, p\u00ebr q\u00eb mbetet aq i gjat\u00eb sa t\u2019ia l\u00ebr\u00eb vendin nj\u00eb beteje t\u00eb gjat\u00eb dhe mizore cfilitjeje. \u00c7far\u00eb n\u00ebnkupton e gjitha kjo p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb, q\u00eb q\u00ebllimisht ka vendosur t\u00eb hidhet n\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje t\u00eb fort\u00eb n\u00eb shkurtin e 2022?<\/p>\n<p>Prapa nj\u00eb lufte bot\u00ebrore, \u00e7far\u00ebdo forme q\u00eb ajo merr, fshihet nj\u00eb problem hierarkie nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. Konfliktet m\u00eb specifike q\u00eb v\u00ebrtiten brenda tij futen n\u00eb nj\u00eb kuad\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm. Megjithat\u00eb, n\u00ebse nj\u00ebri nga aktor\u00ebt i atribuon nj\u00eb dometh\u00ebnie historike apo deri ekzistenciale ndaj nj\u00ebrit prek k\u00ebtyre konflikteve t\u00eb ve\u00e7anta, p\u00ebrplasja merr nj\u00eb sfumatur\u00eb t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb, jo gjithmon\u00eb t\u00eb ar\u00ebsyeshme. E till\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtja ukrainase p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb. Operacioni special ushtarak aktual p\u00ebrfshin t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 3 fushata t\u00eb ve\u00e7anta, secila me nj\u00eb logjik\u00eb dhe prapatok\u00eb t\u00eb saj\u00ebn. N\u00eb disa aspekte kompletojn\u00eb nj\u00ebra tjetr\u00ebn, p\u00ebr disa t\u00eb tjer\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtohen. Fakti \u00ebsht\u00eb se qysh nga fillimi i operacionit ishte e qart\u00eb sesa objektivat qen\u00eb konfuz\u00eb dhe planet pak t\u00eb qarta pik\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb. Motivacioni q\u00eb ka shkaktuar aksionet uhtarake ka qen\u00eb respekti i munguar i garancive afatgjata t\u00eb siguris\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebrkuara nga Rusia n\u00eb dhjetorin e 2021. Moska i ka mbledhur t\u00eb gjitha kritikat e saj respektivisht rendit politiko \u2013 ushtarak europian t\u00eb ngritura pas Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb dhe i ka ekspozuar n\u00eb form\u00eb ultimatumi. Ultimatumi nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb pranuar dhe k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb jan\u00eb miratuar \u00abmasat tekniko \u2013 ushtarake\u00bb. E gjitha kjo futet n\u00eb logjik\u00ebn e luft\u00ebs bot\u00ebrore. Komponentja e dyt\u00eb e kriz\u00ebs i detyrohet problemit t\u00eb ngrehin\u00ebs shtet\u00ebrore\/komb\u00ebtare brenda nj\u00eb hap\u00ebsire qytet\u00ebrimi t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt q\u00eb n\u00eb dekadat e funditka p\u00ebsuar tronditje. \u00c7\u00ebshtja \u00ebsht\u00eb e lidhur me rrethana historike dhe kulturore, t\u00eb cilat jan\u00eb m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti subjektive, dhe nuk u p\u00ebrmbahen kalkulimeve t\u00eb ftoh\u00ebta. Nj\u00eb fenomen aq i brisht\u00eb si ndjenja komb\u00ebtare dhe marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet sociale q\u00eb ajo krijon nuk p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb premis\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb loj\u00eb gjeopolitike t\u00eb ar\u00ebsyshme.<\/p>\n<p>Ky nivel i par\u00eb dhe i dyt\u00eb i konfliktit jan\u00eb t\u00eb lidhura fuqimisht midis tyre 6 muaj p\u00ebrpara fillimit t\u00eb fushat\u00ebs n\u00eb nj\u00eb artikull t\u00eb Vladimir Putinit t\u00eb titulluar \u00abMbi unitetin historik e rus\u00ebve dhe ukrainasve\u00bb. \u00c7\u00ebshtja e tret\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e politik\u00ebs s\u00eb brendshme. N\u00eb \u00e7far\u00eb mase d\u00ebshira p\u00ebr ta ndryshuar rr\u00ebnj\u00ebsisht natyr\u00ebn e zhvillimit t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb e ka motivuar zgjedhjen, mundet vet\u00ebm t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqet dhe t\u00eb gjendet. Vladimir Putini kthehet rregullisht mbi tem\u00ebn e dob\u00ebsimit t\u00eb sovranitetit teknologjik dhe t\u00eb barr\u00ebsis\u00eb n\u00eb rritje nga jasht\u00eb si rezultat i periudh\u00ebs passovjetike. Lidershipi rus \u00ebsht\u00eb i bindur se globalizimi i vjet\u00ebr ka mbaruar dhe se po vjen nj\u00eb epok\u00eb vet\u00ebmjaftueshm\u00ebrie. P\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, lidhjet e s\u00eb kaluar\u00ebs duhet prer\u00eb dhe nuk b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb prer\u00eb raporte, por sidomos t\u00eb nj\u00eb riorientimi t\u00eb brendshlm, edhe p\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket struktur\u00ebs baz\u00eb dhe indit shoq\u00ebror. Nj\u00eb terapi e p\u00ebrplasjes e ka b\u00ebr\u00eb Rusin\u00eb t\u00eb kthehet nga bota. Do t\u00eb duhet nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr p\u00ebr ta shtyr\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb ecjen. N\u00eb drit\u00ebn e vitit t\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb lufitmeve, cilat jan\u00eb shanset e suksesit t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb dimensionet e ndryshme t\u00eb konfliktit?<\/p>\n<p>N\u00ebse ecim s\u00ebprapthi, operacioni ushtarak ka konfirmuar mbizot\u00ebrimin e kritik\u00ebs themelore n\u00eb struktur\u00ebn e vendit dhe nevoj\u00ebn e nj\u00eb modernizmi cil\u00ebsor t\u00eb tij. Modernizimi i dekadave t\u00eb kaluara \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00abmarr\u00eb hua\u00bb, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb ka ndodhur n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe mbi baza t\u00eb ndodhura nga jasht\u00eb. Difektet tona do t\u00eb shfaqeshin gjith\u00ebesesi. Nga cil\u00ebsia e pun\u00ebs s\u00eb disa institucioneve ky\u00e7e, praktikave administrative dhe mekanizmave vendimmarr\u00ebs, deri n\u00eb vjet\u00ebrsin\u00eb e vizioneve strategjike dhe kontradikt\u00ebn e t\u00eb dashurit s\u00eb mbajturi t\u00eb nj\u00eb linje ideologjike ekskluzive, boll q\u00eb t\u00eb varen thell\u00ebsisht nga bota e jashtme. Tani kjo t\u00ebr\u00ebsi difektesh \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb drit\u00ebn e reflektor\u00ebve. \u00cbsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb thuash sesa \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundur t\u00eb p\u00ebrballohet e gjith\u00eb kjo kritik\u00eb, teksa nga jasht\u00eb vijn\u00eb tronditje me impakt t\u00eb fort\u00eb negativ, por sa m\u00eb shum\u00eb pikat e dob\u00ebta jan\u00eb t\u00eb dukshme dhe mund t\u00eb fillohen t\u00eb p\u00ebrballohen. Natyrisht, n\u00eb momentin n\u00eb t\u00eb cilin form\u00ebsohet nj\u00eb model i ri zhvillimi, ai i m\u00ebparshmi pashmangshm\u00ebrisht zhduket. Ai i Ukrain\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje tjet\u00ebr. Jan\u00eb koh\u00eb t\u00eb err\u00ebta p\u00ebr \u00abunitetin historik midis rus\u00ebve dhe ukrainasve\u00bb, p\u00ebrderisa n\u00eb praktik\u00eb nuk ka asnj\u00eb unitet, n\u00eb mos nj\u00eb ndarje t\u00eb detyruar. Gjat\u00eb vitit 2022 thelbi i konfrontimit \u00ebsht\u00eb reduktuar n\u00eb at\u00eb pik[ sa q\u00eb k\u00ebrkohet vet\u00ebm t\u00eb indivisualizohet vija ndar\u00ebse midis t\u00eb dy kombeve. Koncepti pjes\u00ebrisht i vagullt i \u00abBot\u00ebs Ruse\u00bb, q\u00eb parashikonte m\u00ebnyra t\u00eb ndryshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb arritur vet\u00ebvendosjen (p\u00ebrfshi \u00abdenazifikimin\u00bb ose, n\u00eb terma amerikan\u00eb, \u00abndryshimin e regjimit\u00bb) e ka humbur p\u00ebrmbajtjen e tij gjat\u00eb p\u00ebrplasjeve t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjakshme dhe operacioneve ushtarake n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb. N\u00eb nj\u00eb kuptim t\u00eb caktuar, gj\u00ebrat jan\u00eb thjesht\u00ebzuar, gjysm\u00ebtonet jan\u00eb zhdukur.<\/p>\n<p>P\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve midis rus\u00ebve dhe ukrainasve, \u00abhibriditeti\u00bb passovjetik ia ka l\u00ebn\u00eb vendin dikotomis\u00eb s\u00eb thjesht\u00eb midis njerit dhe tjetrit. Ngjarjet tragjike t\u00eb k\u00ebtyre muajve e kan\u00eb zbutur thell\u00ebsisht \u00e7\u00ebshtjen e vet\u00ebdijes komb\u00ebtare dhe t\u00eb bazave mbi t\u00eb cilat ajo nd\u00ebrtohet. Mjeti tani \u00ebsht\u00eb i qart\u00eb: forca. Kjo vlen edhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb dy pal\u00ebt n\u00eb konflikt. Vet\u00ebvendosja e Ukrain\u00ebs respekton nj\u00eb rol klasik: luft\u00ebrat gjenerojn\u00eb kombet. Megjithat\u00eb, edhe Rusia po vet\u00ebvendoset, duke p\u00ebrkufizuar fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr fjal\u00eb atje ku kalojn\u00eb kufijt\u00eb e saj, ata gjeografik\u00eb dhe ata mendor\u00eb. Territori ukrainas, ku nuk ka ekzistuar kurr\u00eb nj\u00eb lin\u00eb e qart\u00eb demarkacioni midis rus\u00ebve dhe jorus\u00ebve, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb fush\u00ebbeteje natyrale dhe e pashmangshme. Nga t\u00eb dy pal\u00ebt pasqyrohen referime ndaj \u00abLuft\u00ebs s\u00eb Madhe Patriotike\u00bb (Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore), por jan\u00eb asimetrike. Ukraina e p\u00ebrkufizon vet\u00ebveten n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet konfrontimit me Rusin\u00eb. Kjo e fundit niset nga presupozimi se nuk po e lufton Ukrain\u00ebn si t\u00eb till\u00eb \u2013 q\u00ebndrimet ndaj vendit fqinj variojn\u00eb shum\u00eb dhe shpesh n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb paradoksale, por m\u00eb shum\u00eb luft\u00eb kund\u00ebr nj\u00eb \u00abPer\u00ebndimi kolektiv\u00bb q\u00eb q\u00ebndron prapa Kievit. Kund\u00ebr k\u00ebtij armiku kryen nj\u00eb \u00abluft\u00eb patriotike\u00bb p\u00ebr mbijetes\u00ebn komb\u00ebtare t\u00eb saj dhe, nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht, p\u00ebr rolin e saj n\u00eb hierarkin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore. \u00cbsht\u00eb k\u00ebtu q\u00eb arrihet n\u00eb nivelin e tret\u00eb. N\u00ebse vler\u00ebsojm\u00eb ngjarjet n\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb shfaqen dyshime thelb\u00ebsore. \u00cbsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb se t\u00eb t\u00ebrheqja n\u00eb hierarkin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb rrezik p\u00ebr mbijetes\u00ebn ton\u00eb komb\u00ebtare? Pozicioni zyrtar \u00ebsht\u00eb se \u00ebsht\u00eb k\u00ebshtu, por po kontestohet. Fushata ushtarake ruse n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb po na \u00e7on drejt nj\u00eb \u00abplani\u00bb tjet\u00ebr? Nj\u00eb \u00abplan\u00bb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb apo m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt?<\/p>\n<p>Hipotezohej se Rusia, duke ju kund\u00ebrv\u00ebn\u00eb fuqimisht ekspansionit t\u00eb pakontrolluar t\u00eb NATO dhe monopolit t\u00eb Per\u00ebndimit mbi p\u00ebrkufizimin e rendit bot\u00ebror, do t\u00eb siguronte thuajse automatikisht nj\u00eb vend n\u00eb Premier League gjeopolitike. Ky do t\u00eb ishte ka mund\u00ebsi rasti q\u00eb ndoshta do t\u00eb konkretizohej skenari fillestar: nj\u00eb operacion i shpejt\u00eb dhe efikasi prirur p\u00ebr ta rip\u00ebrcaktuar Ukrain\u00ebn. Kjo nuk ka ndodhur dhe Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb rigjetur e zhytur n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb zgjatur cfilitjeje q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb shtyr\u00eb deri m\u00eb sot. Suksesi \u00ebsht\u00eb i mundur, edhe pse shum\u00eb m\u00eb pak spektakolare se parashikimi: kund\u00ebrshtari do t\u2019i ezauroj\u00eb i par\u00eb forcat e tij dhe do t\u2019i duhet ta njoh\u00eb s\u00ebrish Mosk\u00ebn si interlokutore. T\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat ngjarje mund t\u00eb interpretohen edhe n\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt, gj\u00eb q\u00eb Per\u00ebndimi ka nd\u00ebrmend t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb: sipas k\u00ebsaj pik\u00ebpamjeje, Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb e larguar nga pozicioni i saj si fuqi bot\u00ebrore, duke mbetur e ngecur n\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje rajonale dhe duke humbur aft\u00ebsin\u00eb e pozicionimit n\u00eb shkall\u00eb bot\u00ebrore. Turbulencat n\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00ebn passovjetik- skenar p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilin \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e qart\u00eb se Moska nuk ka koh\u00eb t\u00eb merret, duke par\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtjen ukrainase n\u00eb zhvillim \u2013 tregojn\u00eb sesa \u00ebsht\u00eb reduktuar aft\u00ebsia e Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr ta urdh\u00ebruar pjes\u00ebn e bot\u00ebs m\u00eb t\u00eb af\u00ebrt me t\u00eb. Prandaj konfrontimi me Ukrain\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb gjilp\u00ebra e vetme e peshores p\u00ebr Federat\u00ebn. Moska ka synuar gjith\u00e7ka mbi kolapsin e konfigurimit t\u00eb m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm bot\u00ebror. Basti duke logjik: kriza e t\u00eb gjith\u00eb rendit bot\u00ebror ka filluar rreth 15 vite m\u00eb par\u00eb dhe qysh at\u00ebhere \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsuar ndjesh\u00ebm. \u00c7\u00ebshtjet tani jan\u00eb dy: sa i shpejt\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb ky proces dhe cili do t\u00eb jet\u00eb funksionimi relativ i Rusis\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>P\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket afatit, dyshimi \u00ebsht\u00eb se mos vendi yn\u00eb do t\u00eb ket\u00eb resurse t\u00eb mjaftueshme p\u00ebr ta pritur monentin ku nj\u00eb tronditje e p\u00ebrgjithshme do t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb modifikimin e t\u00eb gjith\u00eb axhend\u00ebs nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. Kurse p\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket funksionit q\u00eb do t\u00eb luaj\u00eb Rusia, ndodhi \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb komplekse. Premisat p\u00ebr prishjen e rendit t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr bot\u00ebror qen\u00eb akumuluar prej koh\u00ebsh, por ka qen\u00eb Moska ajo q\u00eb ka marr\u00eb rolin e dashit shkat\u00ebrrues. Lidhur me k\u00ebt\u00eb, nuk mund t\u00eb harrohet fati q\u00eb i ka takuar Bashkimit Sovjetik: sapo t\u00eb shmangura ndryshimet epokale n\u00eb raportet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebare t\u00eb forc\u00ebs, ka p\u00ebrfunduar p\u00ebr t\u00eb qen\u00eb viktima e vetme. Tashm\u00eb bota ka hyr\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb epok\u00eb q\u00eb njoftohet shum\u00eb e ashp\u00ebr. Duke qen\u00eb se t\u00eb gjitha aktor\u00ebt nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb synojn\u00eb t\u2019i minimizojn\u00eb kostot, secili do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb t\u2019i transferoj\u00eb kostot tek t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt. C\u00ebnueshm\u00ebrit\u00eb e detyruara nga faktor\u00eb t\u00eb brendsh\u00ebm e t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm nd\u00ebrthuren rreziksh\u00ebm. Soliditeti i sistemeve shtet\u00ebrore \u00ebsht\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb prov\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha frontet dhe do t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktoj\u00eb suksesin n\u00eb k\u00ebto koh\u00eb t\u00eb trazuara. Kapaciteti p\u00ebr t\u2019i rezistuar presioneve t\u00eb forta dhe t\u00eb garantoj\u00eb, kund\u00ebr \u00e7do parashikimi, nj\u00eb zhvillimi n\u00eb hap me koh\u00ebt p\u00ebrb\u00ebn faktorin vendimtar. N\u00eb konfliktin e trefisht\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb cilin Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb impenjuar \u2013 me rendin bot\u00ebror, me Ukrain\u00ebn dhe me vet\u00ebveten (p\u00ebr ndryshimin) \u2013 dimensioni i tret\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb themelor. \u00cbsht\u00eb direkt i lidhur me t\u00eb par\u00ebn: Russa ka nj\u00eb interes objektiv ta p\u00ebrshpejtoj\u00eb shp\u00ebrb\u00ebrjen e rendit t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr bot\u00ebror, por sa m\u00eb gjat\u00eb ruhen themelet e k\u00ebtij rendi, aq m\u00eb shum\u00eb vet\u00eb ky rend do t\u2019i sulmoj\u00eb ata q\u00eb d\u00ebshirojn\u00eb ta ndryshojn\u00eb at\u00eb. Pjesa m\u00eb problematike \u00ebsht\u00eb e dyta. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb rast\u00ebsi q\u00eb gabimet m\u00eb trashanike n\u00eb llogaritje kan\u00eb qen\u00eb t\u00eb lidhura pik\u00ebrisht n\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitjen e fushat\u00ebs ushtarake.<\/p>\n<p>Nj\u00eb shekull m\u00eb par\u00eb, n\u00eb 1923, bota i tha fjal\u00ebn fund nj\u00eb periudhe tronditjesh t\u00eb tmerrshme. N\u00eb Lozan\u00eb u firmos nj\u00eb traktat q\u00eb fiksoi rezultatet e fundit t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Madhe t\u00eb periudh\u00ebs 1914 \u2013 1918. N\u00eb Rusi dor\u00ebzimi i gjeneralit Pepeljaev n\u00eb Lindjen e Larg\u00ebt i dha fund betejave t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb luft\u00eb civile. Pati nj\u00eb pauz\u00eb prej nj\u00eb dekade e gjys\u00ebm, q\u00eb rezultoi p\u00ebrgatitore p\u00ebr raundin e dyt\u00eb t\u00eb sfid\u00ebs bot\u00ebrore. Tani \u00ebsht\u00eb e kund\u00ebrta: pauza ka mbaruar. Megjithat\u00eb, lufta bot\u00ebrore, q\u00eb k\u00ebsaj radhe nuk do t\u00eb paraqitet si nj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje e vetme e p\u00ebrgjithshme, por si nj\u00eb seri p\u00ebrplasjesh t\u00eb dallueshme, po merr jet\u00eb. Nuk do t\u00eb jet\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje nj\u00eb viti apo dy vjet\u00ebsh: riasetimi paralajm\u00ebrohet i gjat\u00eb dhe n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb. \u00cbsht\u00eb n\u00eb rrjedh\u00ebn e vitit t\u00eb sapofilluar, 2023, q\u00eb perspektivat e vendit ton\u00eb do t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktohen n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe. Dinamikat mbi t\u00eb gjitha dhe tre frontet e sip\u00ebr p\u00ebrshkruar do t\u00eb sqarohen. Ashtu si mund\u00ebsit\u00eb e fitores, p\u00ebr si mund t\u2019i kuptojm\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>(nga <em>Limes<\/em>)<\/p>\n<p><strong>P\u00ebrgatiti<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>ARMIN TIRANA<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Retorika nuk e shmang p\u00ebrplasjen totale. N\u00eb betej\u00ebn cfilit\u00ebse Ukraina do t\u2019i ezauroj\u00eb e para forcat. Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebrkim t\u00eb vet\u00ebvendosjes komb\u00ebtare t\u00eb saj dhe luan gjith\u00e7ka. Amerika ka vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar. Po hapet nj\u00eb er\u00eb e re. Fushata ushtarake ruse n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb vazhdon tashm\u00eb prej m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb viti: si\u00e7 ndodh &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":47698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47697"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47697"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47697\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47697"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47697"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47697"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}