{"id":40441,"date":"2023-03-15T13:28:50","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T13:28:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/?p=40441"},"modified":"2023-03-15T13:29:03","modified_gmt":"2023-03-15T13:29:03","slug":"moldavia-dominoja-e-pare-ne-nje-plan-te-ri-te-rusise-per-pershkallezimin-e-konfliktit-ne-evrope","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/2023\/03\/15\/moldavia-dominoja-e-pare-ne-nje-plan-te-ri-te-rusise-per-pershkallezimin-e-konfliktit-ne-evrope\/","title":{"rendered":"Moldavia, \u201cdominoja\u201d e par\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb plan t\u00eb ri t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimin e konfliktit n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Nga Stefan Wolff<br \/>\n\u201cThe Conversation\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nj\u00eb nga pasojat e luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb fakti se Kremlini ka humbur nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb ndikimi t\u00eb tij n\u00eb vendet ish-sovjetike. Dhe kjo gj\u00eb krijon mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr ta kufizuar aft\u00ebsin\u00eb e Mosk\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb shfryt\u00ebzuar rolin e saj dikur dominues p\u00ebr t\u00eb \u00e7uar p\u00ebrpara q\u00ebllimet e saj t\u00eb luft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n<p>Megjithat\u00eb, kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb gjithashtu se Rusia ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzoj\u00eb tensionet dhe konfrontimet n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb rajonin. Gjat\u00eb jav\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit, Moldavia ka qen\u00eb n\u00eb qend\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjeve t\u00eb tilla nga Kremlini. Dhe ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb tregues se si ajo e parashikon faz\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb konfrontimit t\u00eb saj me Per\u00ebndimin.<\/p>\n<p>Edhe para fillimit t\u00eb luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, kishte shenja se vendet e Azis\u00eb Qendrore kishin filluar t\u00eb pretendonin m\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm interesat e tyre individuale dhe kolektive, nj\u00eb prirje q\u00eb vet\u00ebm sa \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtuar q\u00eb nga shkurti i vitit 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Nd\u00ebrsa \u00ebsht\u00eb forcuar roli i Kin\u00ebs n\u00eb rajon, pjes\u00ebrisht si rezultat i boshll\u00ebkut t\u00eb krijuar nga Rusia, SHBA-ja ka rigjall\u00ebruar marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet e saj me partner\u00ebt kryesor\u00eb n\u00eb Azin\u00eb Qendrore, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht Kazakistanin dhe Uzbekistanin, dhe kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb shenj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr e zvog\u00eblimit t\u00eb statuj\u00ebs nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>N\u00eb Kaukazin Jugor, edhe Turqia e ka sfiduar dominimin e dikursh\u00ebm t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb rajon. Ankaraja e ka mb\u00ebshtetur hapur Azerbajxhanin n\u00eb konfliktin me Armenin\u00eb (nj\u00eb klient i rus\u00ebve) p\u00ebr rajonin e Nagorno-Karabak.<\/p>\n<p>Kontrolli turk mbi infrastruktur\u00ebn kryesore t\u00eb tubacioneve, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb gazsjell\u00ebsi trans-anatolian, i cili lidh rajonin e Shah Denizit t\u00eb Azerbajxhanit me Gazsjell\u00ebsin Evropian Trans-Adriatik n\u00eb kufirin greko-turk, ofron nj\u00eb alternativ\u00eb jetike ndaj naft\u00ebs dhe gazit rus.<\/p>\n<p>Nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht, Bashkimi Evropian ka luajtur nj\u00eb rol m\u00eb pro-aktiv si nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebs n\u00eb konfliktin midis Armenis\u00eb dhe Azerbajxhanit. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb d\u00ebm t\u00eb Mosk\u00ebs, q\u00eb dikur ishte nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsi kryesor i fuqis\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb konflikt. Kufijt\u00eb e ndikimit rus u b\u00ebn\u00eb t\u00eb dukshme n\u00eb Gjeorgji koh\u00ebt e fundit.<\/p>\n<p>Pas 3 dit\u00eb protestash gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb dhunshme, qeveria atje u detyrua t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqte nj\u00eb projekt-ligj n\u00eb parlament q\u00eb do t\u00eb kishte kufizuar shum\u00eb lirit\u00eb civile dhe politike n\u00eb m\u00ebnyra q\u00eb t\u00eb kujtojn\u00eb ligjin \u201cmbi agjent\u00ebt e huaj\u201d n\u00eb Rusi. N\u00ebrkoh\u00eb Rusia gjithashtu duket se e ka tepruar me ndikimin e saj dashakeq n\u00eb Ballkan.<\/p>\n<p>Qeveria serbe \u2013 nj\u00eb nga aleatet e vjetra t\u00eb Mosk\u00ebs n\u00eb rajon \u2013 nuk tregoi asnj\u00eb hezitim n\u00eb shkurt t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti kur goditi protestuesit pro-Kremlinit q\u00eb u p\u00ebrpoq\u00ebn t\u00eb sulmonin nd\u00ebrtesat qeveritare n\u00eb kryeqytetin Beograd. P\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb kostove t\u00eb luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, Rusia mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb e kufizuar n\u00eb mas\u00ebn n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn mund ta frenoj\u00eb \u2013 apo edhe t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb \u2013 k\u00ebt\u00eb humbje t\u00eb ndikimit.<\/p>\n<p>Por do t\u00eb ishte i gabuar dhe i rreziksh\u00ebm n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsimi i p\u00ebrpjekjeve ruse p\u00ebr ta b\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb. Kjo gj\u00eb ka qen\u00eb m\u00eb e dukshme prej disa koh\u00ebsh n\u00eb Moldavi. Atje Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb vrullsh\u00ebm n\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjet destabilizuese q\u00eb synojn\u00eb rr\u00ebzimin e qeveris\u00eb pro-per\u00ebndimore t\u00eb Maia Sandu dhe pengimin e p\u00ebrpjekjeve t\u00eb vendit p\u00ebr t\u2019u an\u00ebtar\u00ebsuar n\u00eb Bashkimin Evropian.<\/p>\n<p>P\u00ebrpjekjet e Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb krijuar destabilitet n\u00eb Moldavi, dhe n\u00eb rajonin separatist Transnistria, mb\u00ebshteten kryesisht tek fushatat e keq-informimit, duke p\u00ebrhapur z\u00ebra<\/p>\n<p>se Moldavia dhe Ukraina kan\u00eb komplotuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb pushtuar Transnistrin\u00eb. Po ashtu Kremlini ka shfryt\u00ebzuar kriz\u00ebn ekonomike n\u00eb Moldavi, e shkaktuar nga inflacioni i lart\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, duke nxitur dyshime mbi kompetenc\u00ebn e qeveris\u00eb dhe legjitimitetin e kursit t\u00eb saj pro-evropian.<\/p>\n<p>Nd\u00ebrkaq Moska ka luajtur edhe me pasigurin\u00eb, duke pretenduar nj\u00eb sulm t\u00eb af\u00ebrt ukrainas<\/p>\n<p>n\u00eb Transnistria apo p\u00ebrdorimin e nj\u00eb \u201cbombe t\u00eb pist\u00eb\u201d nga Ukraina mbi territorin separatist. Por ekziston n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb edhe rreziku q\u00eb \u00e7far\u00ebdo asetesh ushtarake q\u00eb kontrollon Rusia n\u00eb Transnistria, mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren p\u00ebr t\u00eb krijuar nj\u00eb front t\u00eb dyt\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00ebn kund\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebs.<\/p>\n<p>Nd\u00ebrsa kjo gj\u00eb nuk ka shum\u00eb gjasa, ky skenar e ka detyruar Ukrain\u00ebn t\u00eb p\u00ebrqendroj\u00eb disa nga forcat e saj n\u00eb kufirin me Transnistrin\u00eb. Sepse sado i vog\u00ebl p\u00ebr momentin, ekziston rreziku i p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimit t\u00eb paq\u00ebllimsh\u00ebm q\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshij\u00eb shpejt Transnistrin\u00eb dhe Moldavin\u00eb dhe q\u00eb mund t\u00eb t\u00ebrheq\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebn dhe Rumanin\u00eb fqinje, nj\u00eb vend an\u00ebtar i NATO-s dhe nj\u00eb aleat ky\u00e7 i qeveris\u00eb s\u00eb Sandu, dhe q\u00eb ka lidhje t\u00eb forta historike me Moldavin\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>Rusia ka investuar shum\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjet e saj p\u00ebr destabilizimin e Moldavis\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa mund t\u00eb duket sikur ky investim nuk ka pasur shum\u00eb p\u00ebrfitime, ky do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimi i gabuar. Moska e ka pasur relativisht t\u00eb leht\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb nga zhg\u00ebnjimet q\u00eb ndjejn\u00eb shum\u00eb moldav\u00eb t\u00eb zakonsh\u00ebm, n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet p\u00ebrhapjes s\u00eb nj\u00eb narrative q\u00eb e devijon fajin dhe q\u00eb e p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebson frik\u00ebn dhe pasigurin\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>Rusia i ka p\u00ebrdorur me kujdes marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet me aleat\u00ebt e saj vendosur n\u00eb establishmentin politik moldav, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb Irina Vlah, udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsja e zgjedhur koh\u00ebt e fundit n\u00eb krye t\u00eb rajonit autonom Gagauzian apo partia opozitare pro-Mosk\u00ebs Shor. Kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se Kremlini ruan nj\u00eb ndikim jo proporcional malinj n\u00eb nj\u00eb vend me institucione tep\u00ebr t\u00eb dob\u00ebta.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00ebto leva t\u00eb ndikimit rus jan\u00eb t\u00eb spikatura n\u00eb Moldavi, por ato ekzistojn\u00eb edhe diku tjet\u00ebr. D\u00ebshtimi i fundit n\u00eb Gjeorgji, nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se Rusia do t\u00eb shmang\u00eb p\u00ebrdorimin s\u00ebrish t\u00eb k\u00ebtij ndikimi. P\u00ebrkundrazi, edhe disfata q\u00eb p\u00ebsoi koalicioni pro-rus i partive politike, \u00cbndrra Gjeorgjiane, n\u00eb lidhje me \u201cligjin e agjent\u00ebve t\u00eb huaj\u201d, q\u00eb tashm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr, i p\u00ebrshtatet axhend\u00ebs s\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme q\u00eb fokusohet mbi t\u00eb gjitha n\u00eb nxitjen e destabilitetit.<\/p>\n<p>Nj\u00eb zone post-sovjetike e paq\u00ebndrueshme mund t\u00eb mos jet\u00eb zgjedhja e par\u00eb e Mosk\u00ebs. Gjithsesi nga k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrimi i Kremlinit, ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e preferueshme sesa nj\u00eb \u201clagje\u201d ku Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb e rrethuar nga vende t\u00eb forta, t\u00eb mir\u00eb-qeverisura me nj\u00eb orientim pro-per\u00ebndimor.<\/p>\n<p>Nj\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb e till\u00eb nuk premton gj\u00ebra t\u00eb mira p\u00ebr vendet q\u00eb jan\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb varura nga Rusia ekonomikisht apo ushtarakisht, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Armenin\u00eb, Kirgistanin dhe Taxhikistanin. Dhe as p\u00ebr vendet me komunitete t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme etnike ruse, si n\u00eb Kazakistan, apo edhe n\u00eb vendet an\u00ebtare t\u00eb NATO-s si Letonia dhe Estonia.<\/p>\n<p>Kjo i b\u00ebn edhe m\u00eb dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse ngjarjet aktuale n\u00eb Moldavi. Dhe n\u00ebse ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb test i nj\u00eb versioni t\u00eb ri t\u00eb manualit t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr rus t\u00eb destabilizimit t\u00eb fqinj\u00ebve, \u00ebsht\u00eb akoma m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme q\u00eb t\u00eb ndalohet plani djall\u00ebzor i Kremlinit n\u00eb Moldavi. \/albeu.com<\/p>\n<p><em>Sh\u00ebnim:Stefan Wolff, profesor i siguris\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare n\u00eb Universitetin e Birmingemit, Angli.<br \/>\nP\u00ebrktheu: Alket Goce-AlbEu.com<\/em><strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nga Stefan Wolff \u201cThe Conversation\u201d Nj\u00eb nga pasojat e luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb fakti se Kremlini ka humbur nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb ndikimi t\u00eb tij n\u00eb vendet ish-sovjetike. Dhe kjo gj\u00eb krijon mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr ta kufizuar aft\u00ebsin\u00eb e Mosk\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb shfryt\u00ebzuar rolin e saj dikur dominues p\u00ebr t\u00eb \u00e7uar p\u00ebrpara q\u00ebllimet &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":40442,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40441"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40441"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40441\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40442"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}