N\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn rigjall\u00ebrimi i shpejt\u00eb ekonomik pas tronditjeve t\u00eb shkaktuara nga pandemia ka shp\u00ebrthyer val\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb t\u00eb inflacionit q\u00eb kemi asistuar nga vitet e para t\u00eb \u201880. N\u00eb ver\u00ebn e 2021 bankat qendrore jan\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjur duke ringritur p\u00ebrqindjet e interesit. Brazili ka qen\u00eb i pari. N\u00eb fillimet e 2022 i \u00ebsht\u00eb bashkuar Federal Reserve (FED, banka qendrore e Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara), duke shkaktuar nj\u00eb efekt imitimi: kur FED l\u00ebviz dhe dollari forcohet, vendet e tjera ose rrisin p\u00ebrqindjet e interesit t\u00eb tyre, ose i duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrballen me nj\u00eb zhvler\u00ebsim t\u00eb fort\u00eb q\u00eb kontribuon n\u00eb ushqimin e inflacionit. Konturet e k\u00ebsaj skeme jan\u00eb t\u00eb njohura. Gj\u00ebja e re \u00ebsht\u00eb gjer\u00ebsia e fenomenit. Po p\u00ebrjetojm\u00eb ngurt\u00ebsimin m\u00eb t\u00eb zgjeruar t\u00eb politikave monetare q\u00eb bota ka asistuar ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb. Edhe pse p\u00ebrqindjet e interesit nuk jan\u00eb rritur si pas vitit 1979 kur n\u00eb krye t\u00eb FED ishte Paul Volcker, sot ky fenomen p\u00ebrfshin nj\u00eb num\u00ebr shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madh bankash qendrore.<\/p>\n
Jemi n\u00eb nj\u00eb prej atyre momenteve n\u00eb t\u00eb cilat b\u00ebhet historia. P\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket ekonomive t\u00eb avancuara, era e globalizimit e viteve \u201990 e k\u00ebtej ka qen\u00eb nj\u00eb epok\u00eb zvog\u00eblimi e inflacionit dhe ekspansionit monetar t\u00eb promovuar nga bankat qendrore. Tani ky ekuilib\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrmbysur dhe gj\u00ebja po ndodh n\u00eb shkall\u00eb globale. P\u00ebrtej presionit dizinflacionist, po p\u00ebrjetojm\u00eb edhe fundin e programeve t\u00eb stimulit t\u00eb lan\u00e7uara gjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs s\u00eb kovidit, lan\u00e7imin e masave si ligji p\u00ebr reduktimin e inflacionit (Inflation Reduction Act). Sipas nj\u00eb analisti t\u00eb qendr\u00ebs k\u00ebrkimore Brookings Institution, n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara n\u00eb tremujorin e tret\u00eb i ashtuquajturi \u201cdrenazh fiskal\u201d (dometh\u00ebn\u00eb fakti q\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurat e rritura me shtytjen e inflacionit p\u00ebrfundojn\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb paguar nj\u00eb tarif\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb) do ta ngadal\u00ebsoj\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb me t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 3.4 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeje t\u00eb PBB. \u00cbsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb parashikohen pasojat e k\u00ebtij cikli deflacionist global.<\/p>\n
Nuk ka ndodhur kurr\u00eb n\u00eb shkall\u00eb kaq t\u00eb gjer\u00eb. Do t\u00eb zvog\u00ebloj\u00eb inflacionin? Ka mund\u00ebsi, ama rrezikojm\u00eb edhe nj\u00eb re\u00e7ision global, q\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb keqen e hipotezave mund ta rr\u00ebzoj\u00eb tregun imobiliar, t\u00eb falimentoj\u00eb biznese e shtete dhe t\u00eb hedh\u00eb qindra milion njer\u00ebz n\u00eb papun\u00ebsi dhe n\u00eb vuajtje. K\u00ebshtu q\u00eb politikan\u00ebt duhet t\u00eb reflektojn\u00eb mbi tre \u00e7\u00ebshtje: p\u00ebrqindjet e interesit jan\u00eb nj\u00eb instrument tejet brutal p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrballuar disekuilibrat aktual\u00eb ekonomik\u00eb? Jan\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje bankier\u00ebt qendror\u00eb t\u00eb individualizojn\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjen e duhur t\u00eb interesit p\u00ebr ta ngadal\u00ebsuar inflacionit pa ia marr\u00eb frym\u00ebn ekonomis\u00eb? Dhe nj\u00eb ekonomi globale e r\u00ebnduar nga borxhet \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u2019i mbijetoj\u00eb nj\u00eb rritjeje t\u00eb fort\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeve t\u00eb interesit t\u00eb promovuar nga FED?<\/p>\n
Inflacioni thuajse n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb provokuar nga ngadal\u00ebsimet n\u00eb furnizimet t\u00eb shkaktuara nga kovidi dhe nga \u00e7mimi i energjis\u00eb. Nj\u00eb rritje e p\u00ebrqindjeve t\u00eb interesit nuk do ta rris\u00eb sasin\u00eb e gazit apo t\u00eb mikro\u00e7ipave n\u00eb treg, krejt\u00ebsisht tjet\u00ebr. Reduktimi i investimeve do ta kufizoj\u00eb aft\u00ebsin\u00eb e ardhshme t\u00eb prodhimit dhe, p\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, furnizimet. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb motiv n\u00eb Europ\u00ebn e rritjeve modeste t\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeve t\u00eb interesit t\u00eb vendosura nga Banka Qendrore Europiane jan\u00eb t\u00eb shoq\u00ebruara nga futja e tavaneve ndaj \u00e7mimit t\u00eb elektricitetit dhe t\u00eb gazit t\u00eb vendosura nga disa vende t\u00eb Bashkimit Europian. Dara monetare dhe e bilancit sh\u00ebrben p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur q\u00eb inflacioni t\u00eb konsolidohet dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapet. \u00cbsht\u00eb ky sot preokupimi kryesor i FED. Ama frenimi e ka nj\u00eb \u00e7mim. Instrumentat kryesor\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet t\u00eb cilit politika e FED do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb funksionoj\u00eb jan\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsimi i ekonomise dhe nj\u00eb brisht\u00ebsi m\u00eb e madhe e tregut t\u00eb pun\u00ebs, gj\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00ebnkupton m\u00eb shum\u00eb papun\u00ebsi. Mos po shtyhet pak si shum\u00eb p\u00ebrtej dara globale?<\/p>\n
Tashm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb zgjedh\u00ebsh p\u00ebrqindjen e interesit vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr nj\u00eb ekonomi t\u00eb vetme. Si i b\u00ebhet t\u00eb zgjedh\u00ebsh p\u00ebrqindjet e duhura sikur edhe t\u00eb gjitha vendet fqinje po i rrisin ato? Kur nj\u00eb bank\u00eb qendrore rrit p\u00ebrqindjet e interesit, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn mund t\u00eb frenohet inflacioni \u00ebsht\u00eb rritja e vler\u00ebs s\u00eb monedh\u00ebs. P\u00ebrqindje interesi m\u00eb t\u00eb larta interesi t\u00ebrheqin investitor\u00ebt e huaj dhe e shtyjn\u00eb p\u00ebr lart shk\u00ebmbimin. Nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb m\u00eb e fort\u00eb i b\u00ebn importet m\u00eb ekonomike dhe zbret inflacionin. \u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb politik\u00eb klasike e vjedhjes s\u00eb kafshat\u00ebs ndaj vendeve fqinje. Forca e dollarit n\u00eb 2022 i b\u00ebn importet e Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara m\u00eb ekonomike, por nj\u00ebherazi b\u00ebn t\u00eb rriten \u00e7mimet p\u00ebr \u00e7do vend q\u00eb e paguan naft\u00ebn apo tjet\u00ebr n\u00eb dollar\u00eb. P\u00ebr t\u2019ju p\u00ebrgjigjur k\u00ebtij inflacioni t\u00eb importuar, bankat e tjera qendrore duhet t\u2019i rrisin akoma m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjet e tyre t\u00eb interesit, duke ushqyer nj\u00eb rreth vicioz.<\/p>\n
Rezultati final i k\u00ebsaj lufte ofertash \u00ebsht\u00eb i paparashikuesh\u00ebm, por nj\u00eb gj\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb: do t\u2019i shtyj\u00eb akoma p\u00ebr m\u00eb lart p\u00ebrqindjet e interesit dhe kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb pasoja e vetme q\u00eb duhet t\u2019i frik\u00ebsohemi n\u00eb dizinflacionin e par\u00eb global. \u00c7mimi i mallrave n\u00eb shitje varet jo vet\u00ebm nga p\u00ebrqindjet e interesit, por edhe nga ekuilibri midis k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs dhe ofert\u00ebs, si n\u00eb tregjet bot\u00ebrore, ashtu edhe n\u00eb ato komb\u00ebtare. Gjat\u00eb rigjall\u00ebrimit ekonomik pas kovidit, inflacioni i Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara ishte ushqyer jo vet\u00ebm nga tepria e k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs s\u00eb brendshme, por edhe nga ngadal\u00ebsimet n\u00eb furnizimet n\u00eb Kin\u00eb. Tani po ndodh e kund\u00ebrta. T\u00eb gjitha bankat qendrore q\u00eb po i rrisin p\u00ebrqindjet e tyre t\u00eb interesit jo vet\u00ebm q\u00eb po dizinflacionojn\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e tyre, por po spostojn\u00eb ekuilibrin midis k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs dhe ofert\u00ebs edhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt. N\u00ebse nuk mbahen parasysh k\u00ebto efekte, do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb gjendemi me m\u00eb shum\u00eb dizinflacion nga ai i nevojshmi. Sesa i fort\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb ky efekt n\u00eb bot\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebjm\u00eb vet\u00ebm hipoteza.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket dizinflacionit global ndodhemi n\u00eb nj\u00eb territor t\u00eb panjohur. Dhe ka nj\u00eb gj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr q\u00eb nuk e dim\u00eb. Edhe sikur t\u00eb duhej t\u00eb binim dakord se cilat jan\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjet e duhura t\u00eb interesit p\u00ebr ta zvog\u00ebluar inflacionin me minimumin e kostove, nj\u00eb ekonomi globale e m\u00ebsuar me p\u00ebrqindje interesi shum\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb ta duroj\u00eb pesh\u00ebn e p\u00ebrqindjeve konsistente? Me taksat n\u00eb rritje, anipse thelb\u00ebsisht negative n\u00eb terma real\u00eb, disa borxhlinj do t\u00eb gjendeshin n\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi. Do ta kalonin keq sidomos kompanit\u00eb dhe vendet q\u00eb kan\u00eb kontraktuar hua n\u00eb dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb total prej 22000 miliard dollar\u00ebsh n\u00eb 2019 dhe q\u00eb tani duhet t\u2019i rimbursojn\u00eb me nj\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje interesi shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb. Duke mos arritur t\u00eb mb\u00eblshtesin detyrimet e imponuara nga borxhi, si gj\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb do t\u00eb reduktojn\u00eb shpenzimet e tjera, duke ushqyer re\u00e7isionin, dhe m\u00eb pas do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb t\u00eb ristrukturojn\u00eb borxhet e tyre. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb re\u00e7isioni do t\u00eb shpaloset n\u00eb kriz\u00eb dhe n\u00eb d\u00ebshtimin e kompanive apo t\u00eb qeverive borxhlie. Ishte momenti q\u00eb t\u00eb ndodhte, do t\u00eb thon\u00eb purist\u00ebt e tregut.<\/p>\n
M\u00eb s\u00eb fundi rr\u00ebzohen mumjet, borxhlinj q\u00eb jetojn\u00eb vet\u00ebm fal\u00eb kostos s\u00eb ul\u00ebt t\u00eb paras\u00eb n\u00eb hua. Megjithat\u00eb, t\u00eb flas\u00ebsh p\u00ebr rr\u00ebzime \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e leht\u00eb n\u00eb let\u00ebr sesa n\u00eb realitet. Falimentimi nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb kurr\u00eb nj\u00eb proces i qet\u00eb: tashm\u00eb i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr kompanit\u00eb q\u00eb operojn\u00eb brenda kufijve komb\u00ebtar\u00eb, mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb kompleks n\u00eb rasti e gjigant\u00ebve si grupi imobiliar kinez Evergrande, q\u00eb ka t\u00ebrhequr investime nga e gjith\u00eb bota. Kur nj\u00eb vendi si Sri Lanka apo Argjentina i mbarojn\u00eb parat\u00eb, shtete dhe kompani dridhen. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e leht\u00eb t\u00eb parashikosh se kush do t\u00eb falimentoj\u00eb, por dijm\u00eb se duke rritur taksat, do t\u00eb shtohen presionet mbi k\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi dhe dijm\u00eb se procedura nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare p\u00ebr ristrukturimin e borxhit \u00ebsht\u00eb e pap\u00ebrshtatshme. As shmangia e falimentimit prej prishjes s\u00eb kufjes nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb lajm i mir\u00eb. P\u00ebr nj\u00eb kompani apo nj\u00eb ekonomi komb\u00ebtare pak gj\u00ebra jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebqija se nj\u00eb tepri e borxhit jo t\u00eb paguar. Rrezikohet stanjacioni.<\/p>\n
Zanati i bankave qendrore \u00ebsht\u00eb ta luftojn\u00eb inflacionin. P\u00ebrqindjet e interesit jan\u00eb instrumenti m\u00eb i natyrsh\u00ebm, por ka ardhur momenti t\u00eb njihet dometh\u00ebnia historike e momentit aktual. P\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb, n\u00eb epok\u00ebn e globalizimit pas Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb, po p\u00ebrballemi me nj\u00eb inflacion dometh\u00ebn\u00ebs. Pse po e luftojm\u00eb vend p\u00ebr vend? N\u00ebse duam t\u00eb kufizojm\u00eb d\u00ebmet, kemi nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr bashk\u00ebpunimin nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar. N\u00eb periudh\u00ebn 2015 \u2013 2016, kur Kina k\u00ebrc\u00ebnohej nga re\u00e7isioni, mund t\u00eb shpresohej n\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunimin midis FED dhe Bank\u00ebs Popullore t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs. Nj\u00eb shpres\u00eb e tepruar sot, duke pasur parasysh raportet shum\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebqija midis Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara dhe aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb tyre nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb dhe Kin\u00ebs e Rusis\u00eb nga ana tjet\u00ebr. Megjithat\u00eb, koordinimi n\u00eb variacionin e p\u00ebrqindjeve t\u00eb interesit nga ana e grupeve globale si G7 (grupit q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshin Kanadan\u00eb, Franc\u00ebn, Gjermanin\u00eb, Japonin\u00eb, Italin\u00eb, Mbret\u00ebrin\u00eb e Bashkuar dhe Shtetet e Bashkuara), QUAD indo \u2013 paq\u00ebsor (Australi, Japoni, Indi dhe Shtetet e Bashkuara) dhe ndoshta grupin e Shangri-la Dialogue n\u00eb Azi (q\u00eb p\u00ebrmbledh vende t\u00eb ndryshme, nga Tajlanda tek Vietnami, nga Mbret\u00ebria e Bashkuara tek Kili) mund t\u00eb lan\u00e7oj\u00eb nj\u00eb mesazh t\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm: n\u00ebqoft\u00ebse nuk provojm\u00eb, rrezikojm\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjm\u00eb t\u00eb vuajn\u00eb miliona njer\u00ebz n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn. N\u00ebse gjeneratat m\u00eb t\u00eb reja, ar\u00ebsimimi i t\u00eb cil\u00ebve \u00ebsht\u00eb sh\u00ebnuar nga\u00a0lockdown<\/em>, do t\u00eb ndodhen p\u00ebrpara tregjeve t\u00eb pun\u00ebs t\u00eb shyqer nga kriza globale, at\u00ebhere p\u00ebr politik\u00ebn do t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb d\u00ebshtim i paapeluesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n (Adam Tooze<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>\u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb historian britanik. Drejton European Institute e Columbia University n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara<\/em>)<\/p>\n P\u00ebrgatiti<\/strong><\/p>\n ARMIN TIRANA<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" N\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn rigjall\u00ebrimi i shpejt\u00eb ekonomik pas tronditjeve t\u00eb shkaktuara nga pandemia ka shp\u00ebrthyer val\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb t\u00eb inflacionit q\u00eb kemi asistuar nga vitet e para t\u00eb \u201880. N\u00eb ver\u00ebn e 2021 bankat qendrore jan\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjur duke ringritur p\u00ebrqindjet e interesit. Brazili ka qen\u00eb i pari. N\u00eb fillimet e 2022 i \u00ebsht\u00eb …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":26620,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26616"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26616"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26616\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26620"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26616"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26616"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26616"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}