{"id":26005,"date":"2022-10-13T10:52:08","date_gmt":"2022-10-13T10:52:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/?p=26005"},"modified":"2022-10-13T10:57:40","modified_gmt":"2022-10-13T10:57:40","slug":"lufta-berthamore-ngjall-frike-por-mungon-objektivi-strategjik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/lufta-berthamore-ngjall-frike-por-mungon-objektivi-strategjik\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cLufta b\u00ebrthamore ngjall frik\u00eb, por mungon objektivi strategjik\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb me Nathalie Tocci<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb Putini ta shtyp\u00eb butonin b\u00ebrthamor? \u00cbsht\u00eb pyetja q\u00eb trondit bot\u00ebn. <em>Il Riformista<\/em> e diskuton me Nathalie Tocci, drejtore e Istituto Affari Internazionali, nd\u00ebr think tank europiane m\u00eb autoritar\u00eb t\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme. Ka qen\u00eb Special Adviser e P\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesit t\u00eb Lart\u00eb t\u00eb Bashkimit Europian Federica Mogherini dhe Joseph Borrell.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ekziston v\u00ebrtet rreziku q\u00eb lufta n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb transformohet n\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb i frik\u00ebsohemi m\u00eb shum\u00eb: nj\u00eb luft\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nga nj\u00eb pik\u00ebpamje racionale, p\u00ebrgjigja \u00ebsht\u00eb jo. Le ta fillojm\u00eb me th\u00ebnien se nj\u00eb sulm ushtarak, konvencional apo jokonvencional, p\u00ebr definicion duhet t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb objektiv strategjik. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb se cili duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb objektivi strategjik, dule folur ushtarakisht, e nj\u00eb sulmi b\u00ebrthamor. Objektivi strategjik i nj\u00eb sulmi b\u00ebrthamor \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb ripushtohen territoret e humbura nga rus\u00ebt n\u00eb lindje t\u00eb vendit? N\u00ebse ky \u00ebsht\u00eb objektivi, \u00e7far\u00eb imagjinohet se \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb sulm b\u00ebrthamor mbi territoret e tua dhe, p\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, edhe mbi forcat e armatosura t\u00eb tua dhe mbi \u201cqytetar\u00ebt\u201d e aneksuar koh\u00ebt e fundit? \u00cbsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb imagjinohet. Ose, skenari tjet\u00ebr, nj\u00eb sulm b\u00ebrthamor ndaj Kievit. Pse objektivi mbetet ai i ndryshimit t\u00eb regjimit? Por sikur t\u00eb ishte k\u00ebshtu, cili do t\u00eb ishte reagimi i bot\u00ebs ndaj nj\u00eb sulmi b\u00ebrthamor ndaj kryeqytetit t\u00eb nj\u00eb shteti sovran? Dhe kur flas p\u00ebr bot\u00eb nuk kam parasysh vet\u00ebm Per\u00ebndimin, por edhe Kin\u00ebn. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb sesi Rusia do t\u00eb arrinte ta ndryshonte rezultatin e nj\u00eb lufte q\u00eb po e humb, n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet p\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb amr\u00ebs b\u00ebrthamore. Nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb kjo dhe nga ana tjet\u00ebr jan\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha kostot p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb. Kosto q\u00eb mund t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb nga ato q\u00eb jan\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjet e Per\u00ebndimit, duke filluar nga Shtetet e Bashkuara, q\u00eb do t\u00eb ishin p\u00ebrgjigje ka mund\u00ebsi n\u00eb aspektin konvencional, por q\u00eb do kishin, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb theksuar shum\u00eb her\u00eb nga eksponent\u00eb t\u00eb administrat\u00ebs amerikane dhe nga vet\u00eb presidenti Biden, pasoja katastrofike p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb. P\u00ebr Mosk\u00ebn do t\u00eb kishte nj\u00eb kosto shum\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u paguar. Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr kosto shum\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00eb, tejet e mundur, p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb do t\u00eb ishte humbja e \u00e7do lloj aleance dhe mb\u00ebshtetjeje nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, duke filluar nga Kina. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb Kina ka qen\u00eb mjaft e qart\u00eb n\u00eb Samarkand\u00eb, disa jav\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb. Shikohen t\u00eb gjitha kostot dhe nuk shihen avantazhet. Sipas k\u00ebsaj pik\u00ebpamjeje, do t\u00eb vinte p\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrgjigjur jo pyetjes q\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb ngren\u00eb dhe kjo edhe nga nj\u00eb pik\u00ebpamje tjet\u00ebr&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Cil\u00ebs?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Le t\u00eb b\u00ebjm\u00eb nj\u00eb paraleliz\u00ebm dhe t\u00eb shikojm\u00eb sesi kan\u00eb ecur gj\u00ebrat nga fillimi i k\u00ebsaj lufte. P\u00ebrpara 24 shkurtit, Putini e mohonte se do t\u00eb kishte nj\u00eb pushtim dhe me t\u00eb edhe besnik\u00ebt e tij, brenda dhe jasht\u00eb Federat\u00ebs Ruse. Pastaj dijm\u00eb sesi ka shkuar. Pushtimi ka ndodhur. Tani po e fryn me t\u00eb madhe se do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb sulm b\u00ebrthamor. Kjo i jep kuptimin e nj\u00eb aksioni q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb politik sesa ushtarak dhe p\u00ebr politik\u00eb kam nd\u00ebrmend nj\u00eb veprim q\u00eb synon t\u00eb na ngjall\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb frik\u00eb. Por mund t\u00eb ngjall\u00eb frik\u00eb kur k\u00ebrc\u00ebnon dhe jo kur vepron ndaj k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimit. Nga ana e Kremlinit, \u00ebsht\u00eb i gjith\u00eb interesi p\u00ebr ta ushqyer k\u00ebt\u00eb frik\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00eb fund e realizon k\u00ebt\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim dhe n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kuptim shkojn\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha njoftimet, e t\u00ebrhequra, ndaj mobilizimit, edhe n\u00eb frontin b\u00ebrthamor. Th\u00ebn\u00eb gjith\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb, q\u00eb do t\u00eb \u00e7onte n\u00eb nj\u00eb jo t\u00eb prer\u00eb, nj\u00eb refleksion i m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm duhet b\u00ebr\u00eb. Kur b\u00ebhet e qart\u00eb se nj\u00eb luft\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e humbur, mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet gjith\u00e7ka. Po b\u00ebj nj\u00eb krahasim me dashje shum\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb\u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dometh\u00ebn\u00eb?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ka mund\u00ebsi n\u00eb dhjetorin e 1941 Hitleri e kishte kuptuar se e kishte humbur Luft\u00ebn e Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, megjithat\u00eb nga dhjetori i 1941 deri n\u00eb 1945 ka ndodhur nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e tmerrshme si \u201cZgjidhja Finale\u201d. Nuk e ka ndryshuar rezultatin e luft\u00ebs, por sigurisht nuk mund t\u00eb pohohet se ajo q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb nuk ka qen\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrimtare. Kjo p\u00ebr t\u00eb th\u00ebn\u00eb se racionaliteti, sidomos n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb, nuk shpjegon gjith\u00e7ka dhe iracionaliteti nganj\u00ebher\u00eb mund t\u00eb prodhoj\u00eb ngjarje q\u00eb ke frik\u00eb vet\u00ebm t\u2019i imagjinosh.<\/p>\n<p><strong>N\u00eb drit\u00ebn e k\u00ebtyre refleksioneve, ju si do ta p\u00ebrkufizonit gjendjen sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore t\u00eb regjimit putinian. K\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi b\u00ebrthamor mund t\u00eb lexohet edhe si tentativa e d\u00ebshp\u00ebruar e nj\u00eb lideri q\u00eb nuk ndjehet m\u00eb aq i sigurt\u00eb n\u00eb pushtet? <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kur b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr regjime shum\u00eb t\u00eb mbyllura q\u00eb b\u00ebhen gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb autoritar\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb arrihet t\u00eb parashikohet se cila \u00ebsht\u00eb pika e ujit q\u00eb p\u00ebrmbyt got\u00ebn. Kur manifestohet nj\u00eb mosbashkim i brendsh\u00ebm \u2013 dhe kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb sot n\u00eb Rusi \u2013 deri n\u00eb \u00e7far\u00eb pike funksionon represioni p\u00ebr t\u00eb rikrijuar stabilitetin dhe kur n\u00eb fakt represioni jo vet\u00ebm nuk funksionon m\u00eb, por b\u00ebhet ai vet\u00eb shkak i m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm destabilizimi. Individualizimi i k\u00ebsaj \u201cpike\u201d nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e leht\u00eb. E them si politologe. Le t\u00eb pyesim se pse jemi kaq t\u00eb paaft\u00eb si studiues p\u00ebr ta parashikuar me sakt\u00ebsi se kur do t\u00eb shembej Bashkimit Sovjetik, p\u00ebr t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00eb shembull m\u00eb t\u00eb af\u00ebrt. Kjo mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb pasi, p\u00ebr sa mundemi t\u2019i identifikojm\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb k\u00ebta faktor\u00eb pamb\u00ebshtetshm\u00ebrie, ekonomik\u00eb, social\u00eb, politik\u00eb, institucional\u00eb dhe k\u00ebshtu me radh\u00eb, mbetet fakti q\u00eb pika q\u00eb p\u00ebrmbyt got\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb e pamundur t\u00eb parashikohet. N\u00ebse pyetja \u00ebsht\u00eb: arrij ta shikoj k\u00ebt\u00eb regjim t\u00eb Putinit pas 10 vjet\u00ebsh, p\u00ebrgjiga ime do t\u00eb ishte jo. Mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb di\u00e7ka nes\u00ebr n\u00eb m\u00ebngjes, pas 6 muajsh, pas 2 vjet\u00ebsh, por momenti i sakt\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i pamundur t\u00eb parashikohet. Ajo q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb se n\u00eb Rusi \u00ebsht\u00eb prishur pakti social midis shtetit dhe shoq\u00ebris\u00eb. Pakti social q\u00eb mbante regjimin, q\u00eb faktikisht nd\u00ebrtohej nga nj\u00eb shk\u00ebmbim: un\u00eb t\u00eb jap stabilitet relativ dhe, n\u00eb k\u00ebmbim, ju m\u00eb mb\u00ebshtesni. Ky stabilitet relativ tani ka ardhur m\u00eb pak pasi lufta ka hyr\u00eb n\u00eb sht\u00ebpit\u00eb e t\u00eb gjith\u00eb rus\u00ebve, me mobilizimin e rekrut\u00ebve. Ka ardhur m\u00eb pak pasi pesha e sanksioneve kafshon gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebrditshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e popullsis\u00eb dhe ky pakt \u00ebsht\u00eb prishur edhe pse ka ardhur m\u00eb pak efikasiteti i k\u00ebsaj narrative mbi Rusin\u00eb fuqi e madhe, mbi Luft\u00ebn e Re Patriotike. P\u00ebr sa Putni k\u00ebrkon sot ta rixhiroj\u00eb muhabetin dhe ta konfiguroj\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb luft\u00eb si nj\u00eb luft\u00eb kund\u00ebr Per\u00ebndimit, \u00ebsht\u00eb fakt q\u00eb n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e betej\u00ebs po e humbet kund\u00ebr ukrainasve, kund\u00ebr nj\u00eb kombi q\u00eb n\u00eb imagjinat\u00ebn e tij perandorake as duhej q\u00eb t\u00eb ekzistonte. \u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb posht\u00ebrim i \u00e7mendur. Vjen m\u00eb pak krenaria, vjen m\u00eb pak ekonomia, vjen m\u00eb pak siguria e n\u00ebnkuptuar si siguri e jet\u00ebs t\u00ebnde, pasi shkohet n\u00eb front t\u00eb vdiset dhe k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb bie pakti social. Pastaj, n\u00ebse ky pakt mund t\u00eb rikrijohet dhe mbi \u00e7far\u00eb bazash, kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos th\u00ebn\u00eb e pamundur t\u00eb parashikohet. E sigurt\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb se ekuilibri q\u00eb ekziston deri k\u00ebtu ka ardhur m\u00eb pak dhe p\u00ebr nj\u00eb lideri q\u00eb donte t\u00eb ringjallte salltanetet perandorake e Carit Pjetri i Madh, nuk ka humbje m\u00eb djeg\u00ebse. Nga ky k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrim, Putini e ka humbur luft\u00ebn. Nga konfrontimi me t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn del humb\u00ebs. P\u00ebrsa i p\u00ebrket t\u00eb ardhmes, \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb loj\u00eb mbijetesa e tij.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Duke par\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb po ndodh nga pik\u00ebpamja e Per\u00ebndimit, e Europ\u00ebs, por sidomos e Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara, cili \u00ebsht\u00eb objektivi strategjik q\u00eb duhet ndjekur: dikur do t\u00eb thuhej \u00e7lirimi i Ukrain\u00ebs dhe rivendosja e nj\u00eb sovraniteti t\u00eb plot\u00eb mbi t\u00eb gjith\u00eb territorin komb\u00ebtar. Por \u00ebsht\u00eb akoma k\u00ebshtu sot apo synohet, si\u00e7 thekson dikush, n\u00eb rr\u00ebzimin e regjimit t\u00eb Mosk\u00ebs?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Mua m\u00eb duket se objektivi \u00ebsht\u00eb mjaft i qart\u00eb. \u00cbsht\u00eb \u00e7lirimi i Ukrain\u00ebs. Ukraina \u00ebsht\u00eb akoma nj\u00eb vend i sulmuar. Ka ende jo m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 22% &#8211; 23%, por 17% &#8211; 18% t\u00eb territorit t\u00eb saj t\u00eb pushtuar. Beteja \u00ebsht\u00eb ende e gjat\u00eb, k\u00ebt\u00eb shpesh e harrojm\u00eb. Nganj\u00ebher\u00eb fjal\u00ebt q\u00eb p\u00ebrdorim tentojn\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebhen devijuese. Flasim p\u00ebr kund\u00ebrofensiv\u00ebn sikur sot t\u00eb kishte nj\u00eb ofensiv\u00eb ukrainase, si\u00e7 duhej t\u00eb ishte, p\u00ebr nj\u00eb fushat\u00eb \u00e7lirimtare t\u00eb nj\u00eb territori t\u00eb pushtuar. Un\u00eb besoj se kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb, as m\u00eb shum\u00eb dhe as m\u00eb pak dhe jo aq dhe vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn. Sepse ajo q\u00eb rrezikon t\u00eb prishet \u00ebsht\u00eb paksa i gjith\u00eb impianti q\u00eb mban rendin nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar. Nga 1945 kemi qen\u00eb n\u00eb mosmarr\u00ebveshje pothuajse mbi gjith\u00e7ka, por n\u00ebse kishte dy gj\u00ebra mbi cilat qem\u00eb dakord qen\u00eb parimet e sovranitetit dhe t\u00eb integritetit territorial. Parime q\u00eb qen\u00eb nj\u00eb shtyll\u00eb bart\u00ebse e rendit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar dhe kjo th\u00ebrret n\u00eb kauz\u00eb edhe ambiciet q\u00eb Kina mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb lidhur me Taivanin. P\u00ebr t\u00eb th\u00ebn\u00eb se interesi i Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara \u00ebsht\u00eb i lidhur me \u00e7\u00ebshtje globale q\u00eb shkojn\u00eb p\u00ebrtej Ukrain\u00ebs. Mos t\u00eb biem n\u00eb kurthin p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilin Shtetet e Bashkuara synojn\u00eb ta nxjerrin jasht\u00eb loje Rusin\u00eb. Ndoshta ka qen\u00eb jooportune dhe sigurisht pak diplomatike p\u00ebr ta quajtur n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb Rusin\u00eb si nj\u00eb \u201cfuqi rajonale\u201d, por kjo \u00ebsht nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e zakonshme n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara. Shtetet e Bashkuara nuk konfrontohen n\u00eb asnj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb me Rusin\u00eb, nj\u00eb vend q\u00eb ka nj\u00eb PBB m\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl sesa Spanja. Problemi \u00ebsht\u00eb se Rusia vlen n\u00eb mas\u00ebn n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn ajo q\u00eb po b\u00ebn shkon shum\u00eb p\u00ebrtej vet\u00eb Rusis\u00eb, kur flet p\u00ebr \u00e7\u00ebshtje globale q\u00eb shkojn\u00eb goxha p\u00ebrtej dhe at\u00eb q\u00eb jan\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje q\u00eb u interesojn\u00eb Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuar, por jo p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb si e till\u00eb. N\u00ebse Rusia, sado autoritare qoft\u00eb, q\u00ebndron brenda kufijve t\u00eb saj, ndoshta \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb problem p\u00ebr ne europian\u00ebt, por sigurisht q\u00eb jo p\u00ebr Shtetet e Bashkuara.<\/p>\n<p>(nga <em>Il Riformista<\/em>)<\/p>\n<p><strong>P\u00ebrgatiti<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>ARMIN TIRANA<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb me Nathalie Tocci Do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb Putini ta shtyp\u00eb butonin b\u00ebrthamor? \u00cbsht\u00eb pyetja q\u00eb trondit bot\u00ebn. Il Riformista e diskuton me Nathalie Tocci, drejtore e Istituto Affari Internazionali, nd\u00ebr think tank europiane m\u00eb autoritar\u00eb t\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme. Ka qen\u00eb Special Adviser e P\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesit t\u00eb Lart\u00eb t\u00eb Bashkimit Europian Federica Mogherini dhe Joseph &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":26010,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26005"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26005"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26005\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26010"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26005"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26005"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26005"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}