N\u00eb deshifrimin e synimeve t\u00eb Vladimir Putin n\u00ebn hijen e publikimeve p\u00ebr l\u00ebvizjen e arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore ruse, Financial Times p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb duke regjistruar tre skenar\u00ebt se si Moska mund t\u00eb vendos\u00eb rregullisht arm\u00ebt b\u00ebrthamore.<\/p>\n
Si\u00e7 v\u00eb n\u00eb dukje FT n\u00eb analiz\u00eb, \u201cky \u00ebsht\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi m\u00eb i madh b\u00ebrthamor p\u00ebr bot\u00ebn q\u00eb nga kriza e raketave Kubane n\u00eb vitin 1962\u201d, duke kujtuar deklaratat e ushtarit besnik t\u00eb Putinit, Ramzan Kadyrov, se Rusia duhet t\u00eb konsideroj\u00eb p\u00ebrdorimin e arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore me pak fuqi n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Nga ana e tij, z\u00ebdh\u00ebn\u00ebsi i Kremlinit Dmitry Peskov u p\u00ebrgjigj se \u201cnuk ka asnj\u00eb konsiderat\u00eb tjet\u00ebr\u201d p\u00ebrve\u00e7 p\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore bazuar n\u00eb doktrin\u00ebn ushtarake ruse, e cila lejon vendosjen e tyre n\u00eb rast se Rusia merr nj\u00eb goditje ose \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb rrezik.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr momentin, zyrtar\u00ebt per\u00ebndimor\u00eb dhe analist\u00ebt ushtarak\u00eb e shohin rrezikun e Putinit p\u00ebr t\u00eb zhvilluar arm\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore si t\u00eb ul\u00ebt, megjith\u00ebse ata pranojn\u00eb se ai po rritet pasi forcat e armatosura ruse marrin goditje dhe t\u00ebrhiqen n\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebn juglindore.<\/p>\n
Si\u00e7 na kujton Financial Times, kriza e raketave Kubane p\u00ebrfshinte arm\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore \u201cstrategjike\u201d q\u00eb jan\u00eb mjaft t\u00eb fuqishme p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrruar qytete t\u00eb t\u00ebra mij\u00ebra kilometra larg fush\u00ebbetej\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrkundrazi, n\u00eb rastin e Ukrain\u00ebs, literatura e deritanishme ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb me arm\u00ebt b\u00ebrthamore me fuqi m\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl, t\u00eb ashtuquajturat \u201ctaktike\u201d. Arm\u00ebt b\u00ebrthamore t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj klase jan\u00eb krijuar p\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrdorur n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e betej\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrruar objektiva specifike n\u00eb zona specifike.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, ato jan\u00eb ende m\u00eb t\u00eb fuqishme se bomba atomike e hedhur n\u00eb Hiroshima nga SHBA, e cila kishte nj\u00eb fuqi t\u00eb barabart\u00eb me 20 kiloton dinamit. \u201cT\u00eb ashtuquajturat arm\u00eb taktike kan\u00eb nj\u00eb gam\u00eb fuqie prej 1 deri n\u00eb 50 kiloton dinamit p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrruar zona deri n\u00eb dy milje katrore\u201d, shpjegoi p\u00ebr BBC ish-shefi i forcave t\u00eb armatosura britanike.<\/p>\n
Vler\u00ebsohet se Rusia ka n\u00eb arsenalin e saj rreth 2000 arm\u00eb t\u00eb tilla taktike b\u00ebrthamore q\u00eb mund t\u00eb \u201ckapen\u201d n\u00eb sisteme t\u00eb ndryshme si raketat Kalibr apo raketat Iskander dhe mund t\u00eb l\u00ebshohen nga toka ose nga deti.<\/p>\n
Skenari i par\u00eb: Goditja me shembull<\/p>\n
Skenari i par\u00eb q\u00eb analist\u00ebt kan\u00eb zhvilluar p\u00ebr p\u00ebrdorimin e arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore taktike \u00ebsht\u00eb ta b\u00ebjn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb kuptim demonstrimi pa viktima. Mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb, shkruan Financial Times n\u00eb analiz\u00ebn e tyre, nj\u00eb shp\u00ebrthim n\u00ebntok\u00ebsor ose n\u00eb Detin e Zi n\u00eb nj\u00eb lart\u00ebsi t\u00eb madhe mbi Ukrain\u00eb ose ndonj\u00eb zon\u00eb t\u00eb pabanuar si Fidonisi.<\/p>\n
Pulsi elektromagnetik nga nj\u00eb goditje e till\u00eb do t\u00eb \u201cdigjte\u201d t\u00eb gjitha pajisjet elektrike t\u00eb pambrojtura, nd\u00ebrsa r\u00ebnia radioaktive, megjith\u00ebse fillimisht e lart\u00eb, do t\u00eb zvog\u00eblohej n\u00eb 1% brenda 48 or\u00ebve t\u00eb para. Megjithat\u00eb, pluhuri radioaktiv q\u00eb do t\u00eb vendoset n\u00eb 24 or\u00ebt e para p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb rrezik ekstrem biologjik, nd\u00ebrsa er\u00ebrat mund t\u00eb bartin grimca radioaktive n\u00eb shum\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb bot\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Sipas analist\u00ebve, edhe nj\u00eb goditje e till\u00eb mund t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzim dhe t\u00eb rris\u00eb rreziqet e nj\u00eb sulmi rus n\u00eb nj\u00eb qytet t\u00eb madh.<\/p>\n
Skenari i dyt\u00eb: Goditja e nj\u00eb objektivi ushtarak<\/p>\n
Skenari i dyt\u00eb p\u00ebrfshin nj\u00eb goditje ndaj nj\u00eb objektivi ushtarak ukrainas ose infrastruktur\u00ebs kryesore \u2013 p.sh. nj\u00eb sulm me raketa n\u00eb centralin b\u00ebrthamor t\u00eb Zaporizhia. \u00c7\u00ebshtja n\u00ebse dhe n\u00eb \u00e7far\u00eb mase do t\u00eb ishte kjo mbetet e hapur. Forcat ukrainase, sipas FT, jan\u00eb t\u00eb shp\u00ebrndara gjer\u00ebsisht dhe studimet amerikane kan\u00eb treguar se nj\u00eb kok\u00eb luftarake prej nj\u00eb kiloton\u00ebsh do t\u00eb duhej t\u00eb shp\u00ebrthehej brenda 90 metrave nga nj\u00eb automjet i blinduar p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkaktuar d\u00ebme serioze.<\/p>\n
Disa analist\u00eb argumentojn\u00eb se nuk do t\u00eb kishte kuptim q\u00eb Rusia t\u00eb godiste objektivat ushtarake t\u00eb vendosura n\u00eb zona q\u00eb Moska i konsideron t\u00eb sajat, sepse ushtria ruse, morali i s\u00eb cil\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb tashm\u00eb i ul\u00ebt, do t\u00eb ekspozohej gjithashtu ndaj mbetjeve radioaktive.<\/p>\n
Skenari i tret\u00eb: Sulmi ndaj nj\u00eb shteti an\u00ebtar t\u00eb NATO-s<\/p>\n
Skenari i tret\u00eb, i cili \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe m\u00eb ekstremi dhe ai me ndikimin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh, do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb sulm b\u00ebrthamor ndaj nj\u00eb shteti an\u00ebtar t\u00eb NATO-s, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb SHBA-n\u00eb, nj\u00eb sugjerim i paraqitur nga grupet ruse t\u00eb mendimit q\u00eb argumentojn\u00eb se Rusia duhet t\u00eb tregoj\u00eb se ajo ishte serioze kur k\u00ebrc\u00ebnonte me nj\u00eb sulm b\u00ebrthamor.<\/p>\n
Reagimi i bot\u00ebs per\u00ebndimore n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast, i nj\u00eb sulmi ndaj nj\u00eb shteti an\u00ebtar t\u00eb NATO-s, \u00ebsht\u00eb i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb parashikohet. Neni 5 i kart\u00ebs s\u00eb NATO-s i cili parashikon nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje kolektive nga shtetet e tjera an\u00ebtare do t\u00eb vihej n\u00eb veprim dhe Rusia do t\u00eb rrezikonte nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje gjith\u00ebp\u00ebrfshir\u00ebse b\u00ebrthamore nga SHBA.<\/p>\n
Muajin e kaluar, k\u00ebshilltari amerikan p\u00ebr sigurin\u00eb komb\u00ebtare, Jake Sullivan, tha se \u00e7do sulm b\u00ebrthamor rus do t\u00eb kishte \u201cpasoja katastrofike\u201d pa elaboruar, duke shtuar se Uashingtoni e kishte informuar Mosk\u00ebn n\u00eb diskutime private p\u00ebr reagimin e Per\u00ebndimit.<\/p>\n
T\u00eb diel\u00ebn, Sekretari i P\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm i NATO-s, Jens Stoltenberg paralajm\u00ebroi p\u00ebr \u201cpasoja t\u00eb r\u00ebnda\u201d p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb, t\u00eb cilat, sipas ish-drejtorit t\u00eb CIA-s, David Petraeus, mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshijn\u00eb nj\u00eb sulm ushtarak konvencional q\u00eb do t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrronte Flot\u00ebn e Zez\u00eb.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
N\u00eb deshifrimin e synimeve t\u00eb Vladimir Putin n\u00ebn hijen e publikimeve p\u00ebr l\u00ebvizjen e arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore ruse, Financial Times p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb duke regjistruar tre skenar\u00ebt se si Moska mund t\u00eb vendos\u00eb rregullisht arm\u00ebt b\u00ebrthamore. Si\u00e7 v\u00eb n\u00eb dukje FT n\u00eb analiz\u00eb, \u201cky \u00ebsht\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi m\u00eb i madh b\u00ebrthamor p\u00ebr bot\u00ebn q\u00eb nga kriza e …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":25220,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25219"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25219"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25219\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25219"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25219"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25219"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}