{"id":23659,"date":"2022-09-17T10:19:22","date_gmt":"2022-09-17T10:19:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/?p=23659"},"modified":"2022-09-17T10:19:22","modified_gmt":"2022-09-17T10:19:22","slug":"frontet-e-rusise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/2022\/09\/17\/frontet-e-rusise\/","title":{"rendered":"Frontet e Rusis\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>N\u00eb fillimet e shtatorit ka filluar e shum\u00eb publicizuara kund\u00ebrofensiv\u00eb propagandistiko \u2013 ushtarake ukrainase n\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunim t\u00eb ngusht\u00eb me sh\u00ebrbimet e inteligjenc\u00ebs anglo \u2013 amerikane dhe me NATO. Faktikisht midis pranver\u00ebs dhe muajve t\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb ver\u00ebs, nd\u00ebrsa ushtria ukrainase dhjetohej n\u00eb Donbas (midis t\u00eb vdekurve, t\u00eb plagosurve dhe \u00a0rob\u00ebrve, forcat e armatosura ruse kishin nxjerr\u00eb jasht\u00eb luftimit midis 150000 dhe 200000 nj\u00ebsive ukrainase, num\u00ebr jasht\u00ebzakonisht i lart\u00eb n\u00ebse konsiderohen limitet e vet\u00ebvendosura nga Moska ndaj impenjimit t\u00eb njer\u00ebzve dhe mjeteve), nj\u00eb ushtri e re (e p\u00ebrb\u00ebr\u00eb nga rekrut\u00eb dhe mercenar\u00eb) st\u00ebrvitej dhe armatosej nga Per\u00ebndimi n\u00eb prapavija. T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e siguruara nga Pentagoni n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kuptim jan\u00eb mjaft emblematik\u00eb. Nga fillimi i t\u00eb ashtuquajturit \u201cOperacion Ushtarak Special\u201d Shtetet e Bashkuara kan\u00eb st\u00ebrvitur 1475 ushtarak\u00eb ukrainas me p\u00ebrdorimin e arm\u00ebve amerikane: 630 jan\u00eb st\u00ebrvitur me p\u00ebrdorimin e gjuajt\u00ebsve M777; 325 n\u00eb p\u00ebrdorimin e sistemeve HIMARS; 330 n\u00eb gjuajt\u00ebsit M109; 120 n\u00eb gjuajt\u00ebsit M113 APC dhe t\u00eb tjer\u00eb akoma me p\u00ebrdorimin e sistemeve ajrore me pilot nga larg.<\/p>\n<p>Ofensiva e p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt NATO \u2013 Ukrain\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrq\u00ebndruar sidomos n\u00eb rajonin e Kersonit (Ukrain\u00eb jugore) dhe n\u00eb rajonin e Harkovit (Ukrain\u00eb verilindore). Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb ende e qart\u00eb n\u00ebse sulmi ndaj Kersonit ka sh\u00ebrbyer si \u201cdiversiv\u201d p\u00ebr ta hutuar ushtrin\u00eb ruse nga rajoni verilindor (objektiv i mundsh\u00ebm real i ofensiv\u00ebs duke par\u00eb pranin\u00eb e pak\u00ebt t\u00eb mbrojtjeve t\u00eb organizuara). Kjo q\u00eb p\u00ebr momentin duket qart\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb kostoja e madhe n\u00eb terma jet\u00ebsh njer\u00ebzore q\u00eb ofensiva ka sjell\u00eb me vete n\u00eb t\u00eb dy sektor\u00ebt (n\u00eb demonstrim t\u00eb m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm t\u00eb faktit q\u00eb Per\u00ebndimi \u00ebsht\u00eb absolutisht gati t\u00eb luftoj\u00eb deri n\u00eb ukrainasin e fundit).<\/p>\n<p>Iniciativa e Kievit sigurisht q\u00eb meriton nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb t\u00eb thelluar n\u00eb termat kosto\/fitime p\u00ebr at\u00eb q\u00eb ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb me t\u00eb tre dimensionet e luft\u00ebs: at\u00eb ushtarak, at\u00eb politiko \u2013 ekonomike dhe at\u00eb kulturor. N\u00eb radh\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb, si\u00e7 e ka p\u00ebrcjell\u00eb ish gjenerali Fabio Mini n\u00eb nj\u00eb artikull t\u00eb dal\u00eb m\u00eb 11 shtator n\u00eb <em>Il Fatto Quotidiano<\/em>, \u00ebsht\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb sqarohet se ridslokimi mbrojt\u00ebs (p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkurtuar linjat e furnizimit dhe fituar koh\u00ebn e dobishme p\u00ebr riorganizimin ushtarak) \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb taktik\u00eb normale dhe e zakont\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb konvencionale si ajo n\u00eb zhvillim n\u00eb vendin e Europ\u00ebs Lindore. \u00cbsht\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur n\u00eb 8 vitet p\u00ebrpara konfliktit si nga forcat e armatosura ukrainase, ashtu edhe nga rebel\u00ebt separatist\u00eb. Dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur nga vet\u00eb rus\u00ebt n\u00eb raste t\u00eb ndryshme gjat\u00eb \u201cOperacionit Ushtarak Special\u201d p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur formimin e xhepave dhe\/ose kazan\u00ebve (dometh\u00ebn\u00eb q\u00eb, n\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt, ka ndodhur n\u00eb Mariupol me forcat e armatosura dhe milicit\u00eb ukrainase e mbetura t\u00eb rrethuara pa mund\u00ebsi furnizimi; dometh\u00ebn\u00eb ajo q\u00eb, duke u kthyer prapa n\u00eb koh\u00eb, ndodhi me Armat\u00ebn e 6 n\u00eb Stalingrad gjat\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore). Historia ushtarake ruse paraqet raste t\u00eb ndryshme n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kuptim. P\u00ebr shembull, me proporcionet e duhura, pavar\u00ebsisht rezultatit jo t\u00ebr\u00ebrisht negativ t\u00eb Betej\u00ebs s\u00eb Borodinos (7 shtator 1812), gjenerali Mikhail Kutuzov zgjodhi t\u00eb rigrupohej duke i lejuar ushtris\u00eb napoleoniane p\u00ebr t\u00eb hyr\u00eb n\u00eb Mosk\u00eb. Megjithat\u00eb kjo fitore e dhjetuar (Napoleoni vet\u00eb e quajti p\u00ebrplasjen si \u201cm\u00eb t\u00eb tmerrshmen e betejave t\u00eb mia\u201d) dhe e privuar nga nj\u00eb fitore efektive n\u00eb terren, u demonstrua e paaft\u00eb t\u00eb ruaj\u00eb pozicionet e fituara me kalimin e koh\u00ebs.<\/p>\n<p>Rasti ukrainas paraqet disa af\u00ebrsi dhe divergjenca evidente. Paras\u00ebgjithash \u00ebsht\u00eb oportune t\u00eb vler\u00ebsohet vlera strategjike t\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201cfitoreje\u201d t\u00eb siguruar thuajse ekskluzivisht p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb t\u00ebrheqjes s\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtarit (ar\u00ebsye p\u00ebr t\u00eb cil\u00ebn t\u00eb flas\u00ebsh p\u00ebr \u201ckolaps\u201d t\u00eb mbrojtjeve ruse mbetet n\u00eb fakt devijues). Faktikisht limitet e sip\u00ebrp\u00ebrmendura q\u00eb Moska ka imponuar n\u00eb operacionin n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb nuk kan\u00eb mundur t\u00eb lejojn\u00eb t\u00eb mbrojn\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00eb dhe me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin intensitet nj\u00eb front prej mbi 1000 kilometrash. Duke marr\u00eb m\u00ebsim nga kjo, \u00ebsht\u00eb preferuar t\u00eb p\u00ebrq\u00ebndrohen mbrojtjet n\u00eb jug dhe n\u00eb territoret e republikave separatiste t\u00eb mbetura t\u00eb kapura nga ofensiva ukrainase (me p\u00ebrjashtim p\u00ebr nj\u00eb tentative p\u00ebr t\u00eb \u00e7ar\u00eb linjat n\u00eb af\u00ebrsit\u00eb e Lysychansk, q\u00eb p\u00ebr momentin nuk duket se ka shkaktuar efekt t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb). Jo rast\u00ebsisht, gjat\u00eb vet\u00eb ofensiv\u00ebs ukrainase n\u00eb rajonin e Harkovit, rus\u00ebt kan\u00eb vazhduar t\u00eb avancojn\u00eb n\u00eb rajonin e Donjeckut (territori i t\u00eb cilit \u00ebsht\u00eb ende pjes\u00ebrisht n\u00ebn kontrollin e Kievit) duke arritur disa suksese t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme (t\u00eb shikohet pushtimi i Kodemas).<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7lirimi dhe mbrojtja e popullsis\u00eb rusishtfol\u00ebse e rajoneve t\u00eb Donjeckut dhe Luganskut mbetet guri i themelit mbi t\u00eb cilin Moska ka ngritur justifikimin \u201chumanitar\u201d t\u00eb Operacionit Ushtarak Special. K\u00ebsaj i shtohen motivimet m\u00eb t\u00eb past\u00ebrta gjeopolitike si mbrojtja e Krimes\u00eb (baza detare e Sevastopolit e t\u00eb cil\u00ebs, nj\u00eblloj me at\u00eb t\u00eb Tartusit n\u00eb Siri p\u00ebr Detin Mesdhe, rezulton themelore p\u00ebr furnizimin e flot\u00ebs ruse n\u00eb Detin e Zi) dhe vullnetin p\u00ebr ta p\u00ebrjashtuar NATO nga shtresa veriore e detit t\u00eb m\u00ebsip\u00ebrm. Kjo do ta kompromentonte jo pak projektin atlantist p\u00ebr ta rrethuar dhe b\u00ebr\u00eb t\u00eb pambrojtsh\u00ebm territorin rus n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet kooptimit n\u00eb Aleanc\u00eb t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs dhe Gjeorgjis\u00eb; ve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj do t\u00eb kufizonte efikasitetin e Iniciativ\u00ebs Tre Mari t\u00eb drejtuar nga \u201cfrenimi i dyfisht\u00eb\u201d ruso \u2013 gjerman dhe nga degjermanizimi i Bashkimit Europian n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet dekonstruktimit t\u00eb indit industrial gjerman dhe t\u00eb zonave satelite t\u00eb tij (p\u00ebr shembull, distriktet industriale t\u00eb Italis\u00eb veriore).<\/p>\n<p>Duket thuajse paradoksale, por Rusia po lufton n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb edhe p\u00ebr Europ\u00ebn, pavar\u00ebsisht se kjo e verbuar nga nj\u00eb klas\u00eb politiko \u2013 drejtuese q\u00eb u n\u00ebnshtrohet urdh\u00ebrave t\u00eb P\u00ebrtejoqeanit, \u00ebsht\u00eb e paaft\u00eb ta pranoj\u00eb. Faktikisht, projekti <em>Tre Mari<\/em> \u00ebsht\u00eb totalisht i drejtuar ankorimit t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs Lindore me Shtetet e Bashkuara n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb ta transformoj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb aeroplanmbajt\u00ebse n\u00eb kuptimin e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb t\u00eb fjal\u00ebs amerikane, e nd\u00ebrtuar p\u00ebr frenimin e Rusis\u00eb dhe p\u00ebr kontrollin e pjes\u00eb qendro \u2013 per\u00ebndimore t\u00eb kontinentit. N\u00eb infrastrukturat e parashikuara nga projekti spikasin n\u00eb fakt rigazifikuesit polak\u00eb dhe kroat\u00eb (themelor\u00eb p\u00ebr transformimin e GNL amerikan) dhe hekurudha Gdansk \u2013 Kostanc\u00eb (e p\u00ebrdorshme edhe p\u00ebr transport ushtarak, nj\u00eblloj me korridoret e tjera paneuropiane) q\u00eb vihet n\u00eb distanc\u00ebn e duhur nga bazat ushtarake ruse t\u00eb Kaliningradit dhe n\u00eb Transnistri (pra, n\u00eb distanc\u00eb sigurie nga instrumentimet e avancuara t\u00eb luft\u00ebs elektronike) dhe rezulton e mbrojtur mir\u00eb nga bazat e NATO e Rexhikovos dhe Deveselu<a name=\"_ftnref1\"><\/a>t.<\/p>\n<p>N\u00eb radh\u00eb t\u00eb dyt\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb oportune t\u00eb v\u00ebrehet se v\u00ebllimi i territorit t\u00eb ripushtuar nga forcat e armatosura n\u00eb rajonin e Harkovit (pavar\u00ebsisht vler\u00ebs strategjike t\u00eb kushinet\u00ebs mbrojt\u00ebse t\u00eb zon\u00ebs veriore t\u00eb republik\u00ebs separatiste t\u00eb Luganskut) mbetet n\u00eb fakt m\u00eb shum\u00eb e reduktuar. Flitet p\u00ebr rreth 3000 km\u00b2 (p\u00ebr ta dh\u00ebn\u00eb m\u00eb mir\u00eb iden\u00eb, Sardegna ka nj\u00eb sip\u00ebrfaqe prej 24000 km\u00b2). K\u00ebsaj i shtohet q\u00eb numri i lart\u00eb i humbjeve, si\u00e7 afirmohet nga gjeneral Marco Bertolini, do ta pengoj\u00eb Kievin t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb aksione t\u00eb ngjashme n\u00eb 5 apo 6 muaj (koh\u00eb e nevojshme me st\u00ebrvitjen e re t\u00eb rekrut\u00ebve dhe me pranimin e mercenar\u00ebve t\u00eb rinj me natyr\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshme n\u00eb truallin ukrainas). Jo vet\u00ebm kaq. Si aksion hakmarr\u00ebs, Moska i ka d\u00ebrguar nj\u00eb mesazh t\u00eb qart\u00eb qeveris\u00eb ukrainase duke nxjerr\u00eb jasht\u00eb loje brenda pak or\u00ebsh nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb infrastrukturave elektrike t\u00eb zon\u00ebs juglindore t\u00eb vendit (dometh\u00ebn\u00eb p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb vij\u00ebs s\u00eb frontit) dhe sistemeve hekurudhore t\u00eb domosdoshme p\u00ebr transportin e materialit luftarak. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rajon \u00ebsht\u00eb e pranishme n\u00eb fakt pjesa m\u00eb e madhe e infrastrukturave energjitike ukrainase (t\u00eb gjitha q\u00eb p\u00ebrkasin epok\u00ebs sovjetike) midis t\u00eb cilave (p\u00ebrve\u00e7 centralit b\u00ebrthamor tashm\u00eb t\u00eb famsh\u00ebm t\u00eb Zaporizhias n\u00eb kontrollin rus qysh n\u00eb faz\u00ebt e para t\u00eb konfliktit) centrale t\u00eb ndryshme termoelektrike t\u00eb domosdoshme p\u00ebr mb\u00ebshtetjen energjitike t\u00eb vendit. Deri m\u00eb sot, pavar\u00ebsisht se propaganda per\u00ebndimore ka k\u00ebrkuar t\u00eb demonstroj\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt\u00ebn, Rusia ka k\u00ebrkuar ta kufizoj\u00eb me \u00e7do m\u00ebnyr\u00eb sulmet e drejtp\u00ebrdrejta ndaj infrastrukturave civile.<\/p>\n<p>Lidhur me k\u00ebt\u00eb nj\u00eb krahasim me Operacionin <em>Allied Force<\/em> e NATO kund\u00ebr ish Jugosllavis\u00eb b\u00ebhet i domosdosh\u00ebm. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast, gjat\u00eb 78 dit\u00ebve bombardime, t\u00eb ngritura paras\u00ebgjithash nga baza italiane, NATO shkat\u00ebrroi 63 ura, 14 centrale elektrike, 23 linja dhe stacione hekurudhore, 100 qendra biznesi, rafineri dhe fabrika automobilistike, duke shkaktuar d\u00ebme p\u00ebr mbi 100 miliard dollar\u00eb (pa konsideruar d\u00ebmet e pallogaritshme mjedisore t\u00eb gjeneruara nga p\u00ebrdorimi masiv i uraniumit t\u00eb varf\u00ebruar, problem nga i cili jan\u00eb prekur edhe tonat e n\u00ebnshtruara n\u00ebn servitutin e NATO n\u00eb Itali, si poligoni ushtarak i Quirra n\u00eb Sardegna). Ajo q\u00eb habit \u00ebsht\u00eb se duke goditur infrastruktura civile, NATO la thuajse t\u00eb paprekur aft\u00ebsin\u00eb ushtarake e ushtris\u00eb jugosllave. Ar\u00ebsye p\u00ebr t\u00eb cil\u00ebn (ede nj\u00eb her\u00eb akoma paradoksalisht) Rusia e Jelcinit u detyrua t\u00eb ushtroj\u00eb presione ndaj Milloshevi\u00e7it p\u00ebr ta detyruar t\u00eb pranoj\u00eb nj\u00eb paqe kompromisi (m\u00eb shum\u00eb posht\u00ebruese) boll t\u00eb nxirrte jasht\u00eb Aleanc\u00ebn Atlantike nga rrethi vicioz ku ishte futur (duke pasur parasysh se asnj\u00eb shtet an\u00ebtar nuk ishte i gatsh\u00ebm at\u00ebhere t\u00eb d\u00ebrgonte trupa tok\u00ebsore).<\/p>\n<p>Natyrisht, sjellja e NATO n\u00eb ish Jugosllavi nuk e justifikon n\u00eb qasje eventuale t\u00eb ngjashme t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. Megjithat\u00eb, reziston mir\u00eb ideja se kjo mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb n\u00eb rastin ku forcat e armatosura ukrainase do t\u00eb tejkalonin limitet q\u00eb Moska ka k\u00ebrkuar t\u00eb vendos\u00eb dhe t\u2019i vendosen.<\/p>\n<p>Pra, ofensiva n\u00eb rajonin e Harkovit mbetet nj\u00eb episod jo ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht vendimtar (si\u00e7 nuk qe t\u00ebrheqja ruse nga zona veriore e vendit) n\u00eb brend\u00ebsin\u00eb e konfrontimit ushtarak n\u00eb zhvillim. Kush shkruan mbetet fuqimisht i bindur se sukseset e m\u00ebdha deri m\u00eb k\u00ebtu t\u00eb arritura nga Kievi jan\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb detyrueshme aksioneve t\u00eb sabotazhit q\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimet ukrainase (t\u00eb ndihmuara nga ato per\u00ebndimore) kan\u00eb qen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb kryejn\u00eb prapa linjave ruse duke shkat\u00ebrruar magazina t\u00eb ndryshme municionesh t\u00eb rezultuara themelore p\u00ebr sukseset ruse n\u00eb Donbas. Si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrcjell\u00eb n\u00eb gazet\u00ebn zyrtare t\u00eb Trup\u00ebs s\u00eb Marinsave amerikane, aksionet diversive ruse n\u00eb zon\u00ebn veriore t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs gjat\u00eb faz\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb Operacionit Ushtarak Special qen\u00eb drejtuar sidomos drejt mashtrimit t\u00eb forcave ushtarake ukrainase nga zonat kryesore t\u00eb interesit rus, shtres\u00ebn jugore dhe Donbasin, ku \u00ebsht\u00eb pasur koha dhe m\u00ebnyra p\u00ebr t\u00eb akumuluar nj\u00eb sasi e madhe materiali luftarak themelor p\u00ebr ofensiv\u00ebn pranveriore. Fakti q\u00eb aksioni mbi Kievin kishte nj\u00eb vler\u00eb kryesisht diversive \u00ebsht\u00eb demonstruar edhe nga fakti q\u00eb p\u00ebr rus\u00ebt n\u00eb k\u00ebto zona, n\u00eb ndryshim nga sa \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb n\u00eb Donbas, nuk kan\u00eb proceduar n\u00eb asnj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb me format e asimilimit t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb si futja e sistemeve telefonike dhe bankare ruse apo me z\u00ebvend\u00ebsimin e personelit administrativ.<\/p>\n<p>Mbetet p\u00ebr t\u2019u vler\u00ebsuar impakti moral dhe emotiv i ofensiv\u00ebs ukrainase. Sigurisht, sikur Kievi t\u00eb mos ishte i n\u00ebn mbik\u00ebqyrjen e NATO, mund t\u00eb shfryt\u00ebzohej vala e gjat\u00eb e k\u00ebtij suksesi p\u00ebr t\u00eb rihapur diskutimin negocial me Rusin\u00eb dhe t\u2019i jepej fund n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se t\u00eb nderuar nj\u00eb kushti konflikti, q\u00eb duke u l\u00ebkundur midis nj\u00eb intensiteti t\u00eb ul\u00ebt dhe t\u00eb lart\u00eb, zgjat pand\u00ebrprer\u00eb prej m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 8 vitesh. I ndrysh\u00ebm diskutimi p\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket Rusis\u00eb. T\u00ebrheqja nga rajoni i Harkovit, pavar\u00ebsisht impaktit ushtarak jo vendimtar, p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson nj\u00eb goditje t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb n\u00eb termat e mbrojtjes s\u00eb influenc\u00ebs, duke par\u00eb q\u00eb ky rajon (n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe rusishtfol\u00ebs) mund t\u00eb futej me t\u00eb drejt\u00eb n\u00eb projektet tashm\u00eb t\u00eb cituara t\u00eb asimilimit t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb (jo rast\u00ebsisht, z\u00ebrat e persekutimeve t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb nga ana e forcave t\u00eb siguris\u00eb ukrainase b\u00ebhen gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb). P\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson nj\u00eb goditje t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb, pasi prish nj\u00eb prej shtyllave t\u00eb s\u00eb ashtuquajtur\u00ebs \u201cdoktrin\u00eb Gerasimov\u201d te ngritur mbi iden\u00eb e konfliktit \u201cjolinear\u201d ku procesi luftarak p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson jo vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb faz\u00eb vendimtare t\u00eb luft\u00ebs, por jo at\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishmen, duke par\u00eb q\u00eb me t\u00eb lidhet nj\u00eb sistem kompleks destrukturimi ideologjiko \u2013 ekonomik i kund\u00ebrshtarit i frym\u00ebzuar nga korrente mendimi ushtarak (t\u00eb lashta dhe moderne) tipikisht lindor\u00eb (n\u00eb specifik\u00eb, prishet parimi i demoralizimit t\u00eb konkurrentit t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet instrumentash t\u00eb luft\u00ebs hibride) dhe p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson nj\u00eb goditje t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb edhe n\u00eb planin e brendsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr at\u00eb q\u00eb ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb me p\u00ebrqindjen (gjith\u00ebsesi ende t\u00eb lart\u00eb) t\u00eb miratimit t\u00eb cil\u00ebn g\u00ebzon figura e Vladimir Putinit dhe p\u00ebr at\u00eb q\u00eb ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb me debatin mbi menaxhimin \u201cokult\u201d apo m\u00eb pak t\u00eb Operacionit Ushtarak Special.<\/p>\n<p>Lidhur me k\u00ebt\u00eb, do t\u00eb ishte mir\u00eb t\u00eb kujtohej se nj\u00eb prej objektivave t\u00eb parafiksuar nga plani i p\u00ebrpunuar nga <em>think tank<\/em> amerikan Rand Corp m\u00eb 2019 p\u00ebr ta dob\u00ebsuar Rusin\u00eb ishte pik\u00ebrisht ai i adoptimit t\u00eb \u00e7do mase t\u00eb nevojshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur n\u00eb popullsin\u00eb ruse perceptimin se qeveria e Vladimir Putinit nuk e ndjek aspak interesin komb\u00ebtar. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst, fushata e fuqishme propagindistike (e konturuar nga dezinformimi) q\u00eb ka shoq\u00ebruar ofensiv\u00ebn ukrainase n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim me siguri q\u00eb ka luajtur nj\u00eb rol t\u00eb dor\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb. Megjithat\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb po aq oportune t\u00eb kujtohet se nj\u00eb shkarkim (megjith\u00ebse tejet i larg\u00ebt) nga lart i Putinit n\u00eb dit\u00ebt e sotme nuk do t\u2019i sillte asnj\u00eb avantazh t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb Per\u00ebndimit, duke par\u00eb provokimet e p\u00ebrs\u00ebritura ndaj Rusis\u00eb dhe rolin \u201cfrenues\u201d q\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht presidenti rus ka luajtur n\u00eb k\u00ebto vite p\u00ebrball\u00eb rrezikut gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb konkret ta shikoj\u00eb bot\u00ebn t\u00eb rr\u00ebshqas\u00eb drejt nj\u00eb konflikti global n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb. Dometh\u00ebn\u00eb se propaganda per\u00ebndimore (prej injoranc\u00ebs apo keqbesimit) shmang mjesht\u00ebrisht t\u00eb n\u00ebnvizoj\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb fakti q\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb aspak e sigurt\u00eb se Putini mund t\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebsohet nga nj\u00eb personalitet m\u00eb i \u201cmoderuar\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Ashtu si\u00e7 eviton t\u00eb n\u00ebnvizoj\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet struktur\u00ebs komplekse vendimmarr\u00ebse (verticiste dhe t\u00eb stratifikuar) t\u00eb Partis\u00eb Rusia e Bashkuar, n\u00eb dy dekadat e fundit Putini ka arritur t\u00eb marr\u00eb rolin e arbitrit midis nj\u00eb galaktike interesash jasht\u00ebzakonisht heterogjene (nga instancat liberale n\u00eb ato m\u00eb t\u00eb hapur nacionalistike dhe luftarake) dhe n\u00eb konflikt konstant midis tyre. n\u00eb cil\u00ebsin\u00eb e \u201cvendimarr\u00ebsit t\u00eb fundit\u201d (mish\u00ebrim i atij koncepti schmitian t\u00eb sovranitetit q\u00eb n\u00eb Kin\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb i saji nga Partia Komuniste), faktikisht Putini ka zhvilluar nj\u00eb aksion t\u00eb zjarrt\u00eb bilancimi q\u00eb i ka mund\u00ebsuar t\u00eb siguroj\u00eb rezultate m\u00eb shum\u00eb se t\u00eb ar\u00ebsyeshme, sidomos n\u00eb terma ridimensionimi t\u00eb rrjetit oligarkiko \u2013 kleptokratik t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar n\u00eb epok\u00ebn Jelcin dhe t\u00eb rind\u00ebrtimit e riorientimit t\u00eb tekstur\u00ebs ekonomiko \u2013 industriale ruse (boll t\u00eb mendosh q\u00eb n\u00eb 2016 Rusia i ka tejkaluar Shtetet e Bashkuara si eksportuesi kryesor i grurit n\u00eb bot\u00eb) dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb mjaft e natyrshme q\u00eb p\u00ebr k\u00ebto motive t\u00eb thjeshta Per\u00ebndimi nuk ka simpati t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb proces delegjitimimi t\u00eb (tentuar) t\u00eb niveleve politike ruse futet edhe sulmi i koh\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit azer ndaj Armenis\u00eb (forcat e armatosura azere duket se kan\u00eb sulmuar direkt territorin armen n\u00eb Goris, Kapan, Vardenis dhe Jernuk) q\u00eb synon jo vet\u00ebm t\u00eb hap\u00eb (potencialisht) nj\u00eb front t\u00eb ri destabilizimi n\u00eb rajonin kaukazian, por edhe t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb zero p\u00ebrpjekjet ruse t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsimit midis konkurrent\u00ebve dhe (eventualisht) t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshij\u00eb Iranin, ndarja e kufijve t\u00eb t\u00eb cilit me Armenin\u00eb mbetet themelore p\u00ebr bashk\u00ebpunimin strategjik me Unionin Ekonomik Euraziatik.<\/p>\n<p>Dinamika n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn jan\u00eb zhvilluar faktet duhet vler\u00ebsuar sigurisht me v\u00ebmendje ekstreme, duke par\u00eb ambiguitetin ekstrem q\u00eb ka dalluar historikisht kryeministrin armen Nikol Pashynian (i ngjitur n\u00eb pushtet me modalitet \u201crevolucioni me ngjyra\u201d, por q\u00eb ia detyron rikonfirmimin dhe shp\u00ebtimin e tij pik\u00ebrisht Mosk\u00ebs, pavar\u00ebsisht disfat\u00ebs s\u00eb turpshme n\u00eb luft\u00ebn e 2020). Megjithat\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb n\u00ebnvizohet edhe roli i p\u00ebshtir\u00eb i luajtur nga Bakuja n\u00eb proceset e destabilizimit t\u00eb rajonit kaukazian duke filluar nga fundi i viteve \u201990 e shekullit t\u00eb kaluar, kur Azerbaixhani (n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet kompanis\u00eb <em>Mega Oil<\/em>, kompani hije e CIA e themeluar nga veteran\u00ebt Richard Secord, Edward Deadborn dhe Heine Aderholt) b\u00ebhet qendra st\u00ebrvitore dhe e shp\u00ebrndarjes p\u00ebr milic\u00ebt xhihadist\u00eb e drejtuar n\u00eb \u00c7e\u00e7eni.<\/p>\n<p>P\u00ebrtej asaj t\u00eb Azis\u00eb Qendrore, ku fam\u00ebkeqi \u201cShtet Islamik\u201d vazhdon t\u00eb operoj\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebsi q\u00ebllimesh substanciale me CIA (shikohet atentati ndaj ambasad\u00ebs ruse n\u00eb Kabul pas nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjeje bashk\u00ebpunimi midis Rusis\u00eb dhe Afganistanit), mbeten t\u00eb nxeh\u00ebta edhe fronti afrikan, ai i Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme dhe ai ballkanik. Sidomos n\u00eb Afrik\u00eb, Rusia ka operuar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht efikase, duke k\u00ebrkuar ta \u201crrethoj\u00eb\u201d NATO nga jugu n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet bashk\u00ebpunimit gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb ngusht\u00eb me vendet e Afrik\u00ebs Veriore (n\u00eb radh\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb Algjeria, e ndjekur nga Egjipti) dhe me at\u00eb t\u00eb shtres\u00ebs sahariane dhe subsahariane (rasti malian dhe i Republik\u00ebs s\u00eb Afrik\u00ebs Qendrore n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kuptim jan\u00eb emblematik\u00eb) ku n\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunim me Kin\u00ebn ka arritur t\u00eb pengoj\u00eb influenc\u00ebn plurishekullore franko \u2013 britanike. Nj\u00eb rol t\u00eb dor\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst ka pasur me siguri i famshmi Grup Wagner, ushtria private e oligarkut Evgeni Prigozhin, q\u00eb duke punuar n\u00eb kontakt t\u00eb ngusht\u00eb me sh\u00ebrbimet e siguris\u00eb ruse, vepron si progjuajt\u00ebs klient\u00ebsh p\u00ebr industrin\u00eb ushtarake t\u00eb Mosk\u00ebs dhe si instrument projektimi t\u00eb influenc\u00ebs duke z\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb vendet ku \u00ebsht\u00eb i pranish\u00ebm edhe n\u00eb logjistik\u00eb mjeksore dhe ushqimore.<\/p>\n<p>I ndrysh\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb diskutimi p\u00ebr at\u00eb q\u00eb prek frontin jugor dhe at\u00eb ballkanik. N\u00eb ndryshim nga sa ka ndodhur\u00a0 n\u00eb Libi pasi q\u00eb Gedafi premtoi krijimin e nj\u00eb baze ruse n\u00eb Bengazi, Moska n\u00eb Siri ka arritur ta mb\u00ebshtes\u00eb qeverin\u00eb legjitime t\u00eb Bashar al-Assadit dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb shp\u00ebtuar bazat e \u00e7muara t\u00eb Tartushit dhe Latakias duke zhvilluar me Turqin\u00eb nj\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunim megjith\u00ebse t\u00eb brisht\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00eb vendin levantin ka par\u00eb t\u00eb prishen \u00ebnd\u00ebrrat subimperialiste t\u00eb ushqyer nga administrata Obama.<\/p>\n<p>Jo m\u00eb pak e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme \u00ebsht\u00eb (dhe ka qen\u00eb) roli turk n\u00eb teatrin ballkanik (edhe p\u00ebrball\u00eb tensioneve t\u00eb reja n\u00eb kufijt\u00eb midis Serbis\u00eb dhe entietit kosovar). K\u00ebtu nd\u00ebrhyrjet e NATO n\u00eb vitet\u201990 (Operacioni <em>Maritime Monitor<\/em>, Operacioni <em>Deny Flight<\/em> dhe i sip\u00ebrcituari Operacion <em>Allied Force<\/em>), t\u00eb kontronuara nga emetimi dhe nga st\u00ebrvitja e milicive xhihadiste n\u00eb rajon (midis t\u00eb cil\u00ebve spikat kosovarja U\u00c7K e st\u00ebrvitur nga CIA n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri), duke rigjall\u00ebruar vij\u00ebn historike t\u00eb penetrimit turko \u2013 osman n\u00eb Ballkan (e ashtuquajtura \u201cshtyll\u00eb kurrizore e gjelb\u00ebr\u201d), kishin q\u00ebllimin e sakt\u00eb t\u00eb rrethimit t\u00eb komponentes kristiano \u2013 ortodokse t\u00eb rajonit duke k\u00ebrkuar t\u00eb prish\u00eb kontinuitetin kulturoro \u2013 fetar q\u00eb arrin deri n\u00eb kufijt\u00eb rus\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>Duke filluar nga fillim vitet 2000, projektualiteti gjeopolitik neoosman ka takuar doktrin\u00ebn e \u201cthell\u00ebsis\u00eb strategjike\u201d t\u00eb Ahmet Davuto\u011flu (e p\u00ebrq\u00ebndruar mbi projektimin e influenc\u00ebs turke n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn turanike e b\u00ebr\u00eb eksplicite nga mb\u00ebshtetja direkte p\u00ebr Azerbaixhanin) dhe konceptin e \u201cAtdheut blu\u201d t\u00eb admiralit Cem G\u00fcrdeniz<em>,<\/em> drejtuar q\u00eb t\u2019i garantoj\u00eb Turqis\u00eb dominimin e nevojsh\u00ebm mbi aspektin e detit p\u00ebrball\u00eb brigjeve t\u00eb saj.<\/p>\n<p>Duke vepruar gjithmon\u00eb n\u00eb mbrojtje t\u00eb interesit komb\u00ebtar t\u00eb saj, Turqia ka arritur t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb nj\u00eb lloj bilancimi midis pjes\u00ebmarrjes n\u00eb Aleanc\u00ebn Atlantike dhe pozicionit gjeografik t\u00eb saj q\u00eb e b\u00ebn nj\u00eb ur\u00eb natyrale midis Azis\u00eb dhe Europs\u00eb dhe nj\u00eb bashk\u00ebbisedues themelor p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb. N\u00eb fakt, pavar\u00ebsisht disa f\u00ebrkimeve gjeopolitike, Turqia e Erdoganit ka arritur t\u00eb akreditohet qoft\u00eb si ortak n\u00eb industrin\u00eb energjitike ruse (n\u00eb kontrast me projektet e bashk\u00ebpunimit n\u00eb sektorin gazifer midis Izraelit, Qipros dhe Greqis\u00eb), ashtu edhe si furnizues ushtarak i vendeve t\u00eb NATO n\u00eb Europ\u00ebn Lindore (Polonia n\u00eb radh\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb) dhe t\u00eb vet\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs, q\u00eb mbi marr\u00ebveshjen e prodhimit t\u00eb droneve me projektim turk <em>Bayraktar Tb-2<\/em> ka nd\u00ebrtuar nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb doktrin\u00ebs ushtarake t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb saj.<\/p>\n<p>(nga <em>Geopoliticus<\/em>)<\/p>\n<p><strong>P\u00ebrgatiti<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>ARMIN TIRANA<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>N\u00eb fillimet e shtatorit ka filluar e shum\u00eb publicizuara kund\u00ebrofensiv\u00eb propagandistiko \u2013 ushtarake ukrainase n\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunim t\u00eb ngusht\u00eb me sh\u00ebrbimet e inteligjenc\u00ebs anglo \u2013 amerikane dhe me NATO. Faktikisht midis pranver\u00ebs dhe muajve t\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb ver\u00ebs, nd\u00ebrsa ushtria ukrainase dhjetohej n\u00eb Donbas (midis t\u00eb vdekurve, t\u00eb plagosurve dhe \u00a0rob\u00ebrve, forcat e armatosura ruse kishin &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":23660,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23659"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23659"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23659\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}