{"id":20003,"date":"2022-08-06T08:44:56","date_gmt":"2022-08-06T08:44:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/?p=20003"},"modified":"2022-08-06T08:44:56","modified_gmt":"2022-08-06T08:44:56","slug":"ja-plani-i-putinit-per-shkaterrimin-e-nato","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/2022\/08\/06\/ja-plani-i-putinit-per-shkaterrimin-e-nato\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00abJa plani i Putinit p\u00ebr shkat\u00ebrrimin e NATO\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bashk\u00ebbisedim me Ivan Preobrazhenskin, analist gjeopolitik rus banor n\u00eb Prag\u00eb nga 2014, bashk\u00ebthemelues i Komitetit Kund\u00ebr Luft\u00ebs<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Vladimir Putini e ka krahasuar konfliktin n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb me Luft\u00ebn e Madhe t\u00eb Veriut kund\u00ebr suedez\u00ebve (1700 \u2013 1721). Dometh\u00ebn\u00eb vet\u00ebveten me Pjetrin e Madh. \u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb mesazh p\u00ebr rus\u00ebt apo p\u00ebr europian\u00ebt?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Besoj se \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb mesazh i drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb paras\u00ebgjithash p\u00ebr rus\u00ebt. Autoritetet nuk kan\u00eb reshtur thuajse kurr\u00eb s\u00eb foluri p\u00ebr denazifikimin. \u00cbsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb se nuk arrijn\u00eb t\u2019i shpjegojn\u00eb ar\u00ebsyet e k\u00ebsaj lufte, p\u00ebrtej faktit q\u00eb e ka vendosur Putini. Midis popullsis\u00eb ruse nuk ka nj\u00eb kund\u00ebrv\u00ebnie masive ndaj luft\u00ebs, por as nj\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetje aktive. K\u00ebshtu q\u00eb n\u00eb Kremlin nxjerrin nj\u00ebrin shpjegim pas tjetrit, i b\u00ebjn\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb par\u00eb sesi reagojn\u00eb njer\u00ebzit, n\u00ebse e pranojn\u00eb apo jo. Ve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, besoj se fjal\u00ebt e Putinit mbi konfliktin me Suedin\u00eb dhe mbi t\u00eb drejt\u00ebn ruse p\u00ebr t\u00eb rimarr\u00eb tokat e \u00abveta\u00bb jan\u00eb frut i m\u00ebnyr\u00ebs me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn shikohet realiteti. Dit\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb diskutoja me disa koleg\u00eb dhe dikush kujtonte se qysh n\u00eb 1994 presidenti aktual rus shprehte sakt\u00ebsisht t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat ide. N\u00eb nj\u00eb event ku mori pjes\u00eb si z\u00ebvend\u00ebskryetar bashkie i Sh\u00ebn Pet\u00ebrsburgut, Putini theksoi se Rusia duhej t\u00eb rivendoste sovranitetin territorial t\u00eb saj, pa p\u00ebrjashtuar mund\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb ta b\u00ebj\u00eb edhe jasht\u00eb kufijve t\u00eb epok\u00ebs. M\u00eb von\u00eb do t\u00eb thoshte se shembja e Bashkimit Sovjetik \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb problem p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb dhe se Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00abEuropa tjet\u00ebr\u00bb, Europa e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb tradicionale dhe konservatore, por ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb lloj tjet\u00ebr mesazhi dhe u drejtohet europian\u00ebve. Megjithat\u00eb, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm propagand\u00eb: Putini e beson.<\/p>\n

Pas d\u00ebshtimit t\u00eb sulmit ndaj Kievit dhe avancimit t\u00eb ngadalt\u00eb rus n\u00eb juglindje, cil\u00ebt jan\u00eb planet e Mosk\u00ebs?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Besoj se n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb plani \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb avancohet, t\u00eb avancohet dhe s\u00ebrish t\u00eb avancohet, praktikisht kudo. Jam i bindur se Putini synon pak e nga pak t\u00eb pushtoj\u00eb pjes\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha territori ukrainas. Ka resurse t\u00eb mjaftueshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 2 vite luft\u00eb, ofensiva ruse nuk do t\u00eb ndalet me pushtimin dhe aneksimin eventual t\u00eb juglindjes. N\u00eb sintez\u00eb, Moska mund t\u2019i siguroj\u00eb ushqim dhe karburant ushtris\u00eb s\u00eb saj pa nd\u00ebrvepruar me partner\u00eb t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm. P\u00ebr sa u p\u00ebrket komponenteve high \u2013 tech p\u00ebr kompleksin ushtarako \u2013 industrial, q\u00eb p\u00ebr momentin nuk mund t\u00eb blihen n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim, ato kontrabandohen me ndihm\u00ebn e Kin\u00ebs dhe t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb gatshme t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb afera me kushte t\u00eb caktuara. B\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr resurse shum\u00eb t\u00eb kushtueshme dhe kuadri nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb i thjesht\u00eb si kur Moska po p\u00ebrgatitej p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb luft\u00eb. P\u00ebr t\u2019u kuptuar, nga 2020 Rusia pakashum\u00eb e ka dyfishuar numrin e raketave t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorura n\u00eb sulmet ndaj Ukrain\u00ebs. Aspekti i vet\u00ebm q\u00eb mund t\u00eb shp\u00ebtoj\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb ekuacion \u00ebsht\u00eb sjellja e shoq\u00ebris\u00eb ruse. Tashm\u00eb q\u00ebndrimi i qytetar\u00ebve rus\u00eb e kufizon potencialin ushtarak t\u00eb Federat\u00ebs. P\u00ebr shembull, Kremlini nuk mund t\u00eb kryej\u00eb nj\u00eb mobilizim n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb i detyruar t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb nj\u00eb sekret. E nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb vlen dhe p\u00ebr pak\u00ebnaq\u00ebsin\u00eb e popullsis\u00eb: brenda fundit t\u00eb vitit mund t\u00eb rritet ndjesh\u00ebm, n\u00eb radh\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb midis shtresave me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb ul\u00ebta, q\u00eb jan\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb pak\u00ebnaqura nga sa po ndodh dhe ndoshta, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn pjes\u00ebrisht, ajo q\u00eb e quajm\u00eb klas\u00eb e mesme do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u bashkuar.<\/p>\n

Kremlini do ta kishte q\u00ebllimin p\u00ebr ta zgjeruar aksionin ushtarak n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, por tashm\u00eb juglindja nuk ka rezultuar pushtim i leht\u00eb.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Duhet mbajtur parasysh se n\u00eb vizionin e Putinit ka armiq, miq dhe tradh\u00ebtar\u00eb ose, m\u00eb mir\u00eb, m\u00eb shum\u00eb miq se \u00abnjer\u00ebzit tan\u00eb\u00bb dhe ai tani e konsideron nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs rusishtfol\u00ebse nj\u00eb tok\u00eb tradh\u00ebtar\u00ebsh, n\u00eb ve\u00e7anti Mariupolin dhe Harkovin. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb ushtria rise ka operuar me kaq ashp\u00ebrsi n\u00eb k\u00ebto qytete. Prej koh\u00ebsh k\u00ebshtu vepron Perandoria Ruse me \u00abnjer\u00ebzit e saj\u00bb q\u00eb tenton t\u2019i shk\u00ebpus\u00eb, t\u2019i largoj\u00eb nga Moska. Me armiqt\u00eb nuk sillet k\u00ebshtu, por me europianen, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb b\u00ebhet lufta tradicionale, nd\u00ebrsa kampet e \u00abfiltrimit\u00bb u rezervohen qytetar\u00ebve t\u00eb saj. Zonat e vetme ukrainase n\u00eb t\u00eb cilat Putini nuk ka pretendime jan\u00eb ato per\u00ebndimore dhe pjes\u00eb e Veri \u2013 Per\u00ebndimit, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb Ivano \u2013 Frankivsk, Leopoli dhe rrethinat galiciane.<\/p>\n

Moska thekson se Polonia ka synime mbi at\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Po, nga Kremlini l\u00ebshojn\u00eb arm\u00eb her\u00ebpas\u00ebhere kur i d\u00ebgjojn\u00eb k\u00ebto absurditete. Besoj se \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb sinjal ndaj lidershipit polak. Autoritet ruse e dijn\u00eb se Polonia \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb vend shum\u00eb tradicionalist, me nj\u00eb klas\u00eb drejtuese mbi pozicione jasht\u00ebzakonisht konservatore, pjes\u00ebrisht spekulare me ato ruse. Mbi shum\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje n\u00eb Mosk\u00eb dhe n\u00eb Varshav\u00eb e mendojn\u00eb nj\u00eblloj dhe nuk e kuptojn\u00eb se pse polak\u00ebt nuk veprojn\u00eb p\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb. Me pak fjal\u00eb, pse pa u ndjer\u00eb nuk p\u00ebrfitojn\u00eb nga situata, si\u00e7 b\u00ebri Bashkimi Sovjetik me Polonin\u00eb m\u00eb 1939. Nuk e kuptojn\u00eb sesa bota ka ndryshuar, p\u00ebrfshi Polonin\u00eb, dhe se nacionalist\u00ebt polak\u00eb nuk synojn\u00eb ta pushtojn\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

Rusia mund t\u00eb shtyhet p\u00ebrtej Ukrain\u00ebs?<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00eb disa kushte t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme, vendimtare. N\u00eb rast se Putini arrin t\u00eb vendos\u00eb duart n\u00eb Donbas dhe Kherson, n\u00eb rast se arrin t\u00eb kap\u00eb Mykolaivin dhe Odes\u00ebn, si\u00e7 synon t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb, dhe k\u00ebshtu t\u00eb dal\u00eb me nj\u00eb korridor drejt Transnistris\u00eb, at\u00ebhere do t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb p\u00ebrtej. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb do t\u00eb mbeteshin Dnepropetrovsku, Kievi dhe k\u00ebtu \u00ebsht\u00eb nevoja se duhet n\u00eb rast do t\u00eb provoj\u00eb t\u2019i pushtoj\u00eb apo jo. Ve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, qysh nga fillimi i konfliktit ka nj\u00eb grup rus luftimi n\u00eb af\u00ebrsit\u00eb e Lituanis\u00eb, n\u00eb Bjellorusi dhe aty mbetet, jo vet\u00ebm prej luft\u00ebs n\u00eb zhvillim n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, por p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndihmuar Kaliningradin n\u00eb rast nevoje. N\u00eb rast se Rusia do t\u00eb mundet n\u00eb juglindjen ukrainase, gjith\u00e7ka do t\u00eb mbes\u00eb vet\u00ebm\u00eb nj\u00eb ide. N\u00eb rast se Putini nuk do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb t\u00eb pushtoj\u00eb as t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Donbasin dhe t\u2019i ndaloj\u00eb hyrjen n\u00eb Detin e Zi Ukrain\u00ebs, at\u00ebhere nuk do t\u00eb ket\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb synoj\u00eb m\u00eb tej. Ama n\u00ebse do t\u00eb mbizot\u00ebroj\u00eb n\u00eb faz\u00ebn luftarake aktuale dhe n\u00eb rast se presidenti rus dhe rrethi i tij m\u00eb i ngusht\u00eb do t\u00eb mbesin n\u00eb komand\u00eb, at\u00ebhere nj\u00eb konflikt me nj\u00eb vend t\u00eb NATO do t\u00eb jet\u00eb i pashmangsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n

Cilin vend atlantik mendon Putini t\u00eb pushtoj\u00eb?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lituania ndodhet n\u00eb pozicionin m\u00eb t\u00eb rreziksh\u00ebm. Sistemet e mbrojtjes ajrore ruse e transferuara n\u00eb Bjellorusi p\u00ebrpara pushtimit t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs kan\u00eb nj\u00eb funksion t\u00eb qart\u00eb: bashk\u00eb me sistemet e mbrojtjes ajrore dhe raketore t\u00eb dislokuara n\u00eb Kaliningrad vitet e fundit e mbulojn\u00eb krejt\u00ebsisht territorin lituan dhe mund\u00ebsojn\u00eb t\u00eb mbyllet hap\u00ebsira ajrore n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb korridorin e Suwa\u0142ki n\u00eb \u00e7do moment. Konkretisht, Rusia mund t\u00eb hap\u00eb nj\u00eb korridor ajror drejt Kaliningradit, me pretekstin e garantimit t\u00eb siguris\u00eb s\u00eb qytear\u00ebve rus\u00eb q\u00eb banojn\u00eb n\u00eb eksklav\u00ebn e saj: nj\u00eb kalim p\u00ebr aviacionin civil n\u00ebn mbulimin e sistemeve t\u00eb mbrojtjes ajrore ruse. Ja nj\u00eb kurth sistemik. Nj\u00eb kurth shum\u00eb serioz, p\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrdorur q\u00eb t\u00eb ushtroj\u00eb presion ndaj Aleanc\u00ebs Atlantike. Pyetja e n\u00ebnkuptuar ndaj gjith\u00eb k\u00ebsaj \u00ebsht\u00eb e thjesht\u00eb: do t\u00eb guxonin forcat e NATO dhe t\u00eb Bashkimit Europian nj\u00eb reagim kund\u00ebr avion\u00ebve t\u00eb aviacionit civil n\u00eb mbulimin e mbrojtjes ajrore ruse? Moska i ka kapacitetet teknike p\u00ebr ta realizuar k\u00ebt\u00eb skenar dhe ar\u00ebsye t\u00eb mjaftueshme \u201chumanitare\u201d, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb t\u00eb ruaj\u00eb bashk\u00ebkombasit q\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb n\u00eb Kaliningrad. P\u00ebr sa di, siguria strategjike e Kaliningrad ka qen\u00eb nj\u00eb prej argumentave kryesore t\u00eb trajtuara nga Kremlini kur diskutohej p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen e Bjellorusis\u00eb. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb ar\u00ebsye Putini ka filluar t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb presione n\u00eb rritje ndaj Lukashenkos dhe ka vendosur d\u00ebrgimin e ushtarak\u00ebve rus\u00eb n\u00eb Bjellorusi.<\/p>\n

Po n\u00eb rast se NATO do t\u2019i ndal\u00eb avion\u00ebt rus\u00eb?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kremlini mb\u00ebshtetet mbi faktin se nuk do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb n\u00eb kuptimin e plot\u00eb t\u00eb fjal\u00ebs kund\u00ebr NATO. Niset nga presupozimi se vendimet n\u00eb Aleanc\u00eb merren me unanimitet dhe p\u00ebrball\u00eb nj\u00eb skenari si ky m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb vend do t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtes\u00eb se nuk jan\u00eb kushtet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb konflikt me Rusin\u00eb, pasi nuk b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb sulm n\u00eb kuptimin e plot\u00eb t\u00eb fjal\u00ebs, nuk ka nj\u00eb pushtim territorial. \u00c7do tentativ\u00eb p\u00ebr ta p\u00ebrdorur nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje ushtarake do t\u00eb ndeshej me veton e vendeve si Hungaria apo Turqia. Moska shpreson se mos krijohet nj\u00eb situat\u00eb paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebrie q\u00eb t\u2019i mund\u00ebsoj\u00eb t\u00eb demonstroj\u00eb se NATO nuk i asiston vendet an\u00ebtare n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb automatike dhe do t\u00eb pres\u00eb q\u00eb vendet e NATO si Qipro, Greqia dhe Bullgaria t\u00eb fillojn\u00eb t\u00eb shikojn\u00eb nga Rusia n\u00eb k\u00ebrkim t\u00eb ndihm\u00ebs, duke kuptuar se nuk mund t\u00eb mb\u00ebshteten tek Aleanca n\u00eb rast konflikti ushtarak. Me pak fjal\u00eb, Kremlini pret q\u00eb NATO t\u00eb bjer\u00eb si nj\u00eb k\u00ebshtjell\u00eb prej r\u00ebre dhe q\u00eb vende si Hungaria apo Republika \u00c7eke, duke mos u ndjer\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb sigurta, nuk do t\u00eb shohin zgjedhje tjet\u00ebr p\u00ebrve\u00e7 fillimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb negociate me Rusin\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Avion\u00eb komercial\u00eb rus\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb ajrore t\u00eb huaj, e mbyllur ndaj Rusis\u00eb: nj\u00eb provokim kundrejt NATO m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb agresion ndaj Lituanis\u00eb.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Objektivi rus \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb minoj\u00eb themelet e NATO. T\u00eb tregoj\u00eb se ajo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e gatshme t\u00eb mbroj\u00eb me \u00e7do kusht vendet aleate m\u00eb t\u00eb vegj\u00ebl. \u00c7\u00ebshtja themelore dhe qendra e aksionit rus n\u00eb pers\u00ebektiv\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse NATO do t\u00eb mbijetoj\u00eb n\u00eb form\u00ebn q\u00eb ekziston tani. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb e pamundur n\u00ebse b\u00ebhet e qart\u00eb se Aleanca nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u2019i furnizoj\u00eb asistenc\u00eb ushtarake nj\u00ebrit prej shteteve an\u00ebtare t\u00eb saj pik\u00ebrisht si tani dhe n\u00eb gjendje t\u2019i jap\u00eb aisstenc\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha efektet Ukrain\u00ebs. N\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb, si do t\u00eb paraqitet NATO n\u00eb rast presioni real ushtarak mbi nj\u00ebrin prej vendeve t\u00eb bllokut, por n\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb agresioni ushtarak n\u00eb kuptimin e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb t\u00eb fjal\u00ebs? Le t\u00eb supozojm\u00eb se Rusia merr kontrollin e qiejve mbi t\u00eb \u00e7ar\u00ebn e Suwa\u0142ki. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb nuk ka asnj\u00eb nevoj\u00eb t\u00eb ndjek\u00eb nj\u00eb pushtim ushtarak. Nj\u00eb situat\u00eb e till\u00eb mund t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb p\u00ebr vite me radh\u00eb, me grindje apo propozime p\u00ebr t\u00eb ngritur forcat e paqes. E gjitha kjo do t\u00eb minonte statusin juridik t\u00eb Lituanis\u00eb, kuptimin e Bashkimit Europian dhe unitetin strategjiko \u2013 ushtarak t\u00eb NATO.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb deputet i \u201cRusis\u00eb s\u00eb Bashkuar\u201d n\u00eb Dum\u00eb, Evgenij Fedorov, ka paraqitur nj\u00eb projektligj p\u00ebr revokimin e miratimit t\u00eb K\u00ebshillit t\u00eb Shtetit t\u00eb at\u00ebhersh\u00ebm sovjetik mbi njohjen e Lituanis\u00eb.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb skem\u00eb e p\u00ebrs\u00ebritur. Dikush paraqet nj\u00eb projektligj q\u00eb m\u00eb pas lihet menjan\u00eb, pas k\u00ebsaj rishfaqet dhe n\u00eb nj\u00eb pik\u00eb t\u00eb caktuar miratohet. Ndoshta do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb pas 5 apo 10 vitesh. Iniciativa e Fedorov \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrshkruar si veprimi i nj\u00eb gjysm\u00eb t\u00eb \u00e7menduri. Vet\u00ebm kush nuk ia ndjekur pun\u00ebt parlamentare t\u00eb 20 viteve t\u00eb fundit mund ta mendoj\u00eb se \u00ebsht\u00eb k\u00ebshtu dhe duhet kuptuar se \u00e7far\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptohet me jo njohje: nuk b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb mohuar ekzistenc\u00ebn e Lituan\u00ebsi, por ta njohesh brenda kufijve aktual\u00eb. P\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb Rusia mund t\u00eb nis\u00eb nj\u00eb proces negociues dhe t\u00eb vendos\u00eb kushte p\u00ebr njohjen. P\u00ebr shembull, duke i k\u00ebrkuar t\u00eb garantoj\u00eb tranzitin e qytetar\u00ebve rus\u00eb deri n\u00eb Kaliningrad dhe t\u00eb pranoj\u00eb kontrollin rus mbi k\u00ebt\u00eb korridor tranziti. Nj\u00eb dinamik\u00eb e ngjashme, edhe pse jo kaq e qart\u00eb, ekziston n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet me Estonin\u00eb. Qeveria estoneze nuk synon t\u00eb ratifikoj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjen mbi kufijt\u00eb q\u00eb implikon njohjen e kufijve t\u00eb lindura n\u00eb gjirin e Bashkimit Sovjetik pas Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore. Me pak fjal\u00eb, midis Rusis\u00eb dhje vendeve balltike ekzistojn\u00eb kund\u00ebrshti territoriale q\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb zgjidhur asnj\u00ebher\u00eb krejt\u00ebsisht.<\/p>\n

Kur mendoni t\u00eb mundshme q\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtetohet nj\u00eb skenar i k\u00ebtij lloji dhe n\u00eb \u00e7far\u00eb perspektive kohore?<\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb projekt afatgjat\u00eb, i menduar p\u00ebr pas nj\u00eb dekade. Un\u00eb nuk besoj se Putini synon ta pushtoj\u00eb ushtarakisht Lituanin\u00eb n\u00eb 5 vitet e ardhshme.<\/p>\n

E v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb imagjinohet q\u00eb NATO t\u00eb rrij\u00eb e t\u00eb shikoj\u00eb.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Edhe un\u00eb e konsideroj t\u00eb mundur nj\u00eb reagim nga ana e Aleanc\u00ebs Atlantike, por Putini dhe rrethi i ngusht\u00eb i tij jetojn\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb dimension virtual, t\u00eb bazuar mbi konceptet gjeopolitike t\u00eb tyre. Rusia jeton n\u00eb nj\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb teorike, e dominuar nga mitet e saj. Lider\u00ebt rus\u00eb nuk duken t\u00eb aft\u00eb t\u00eb vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb sesi bota ka ndryshuar dhe vazhdon t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb. P\u00ebr shembull, n\u00eb Poloni ose n\u00eb Gjermani, q\u00eb fillon nj\u00eb riarmatim t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb dhe po braktisin kompleksin e fajit t\u00eb kultivuar pas Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, duke demonstruar disponueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e tyre n\u00eb p\u00ebrdorimin e forc\u00ebs. Europa po ndryshon dhe Kremlini po vuan q\u00eb ta kuptoj\u00eb. Megjithat\u00eb, mendoj se sigurisht q\u00eb do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje t\u00eb NATO, t\u00eb Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara, p\u00ebrfshi Shtetet e Bashkuara, gj\u00eb q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb themelore, ama pyetja \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse kjo p\u00ebrgjigje do t\u00eb jet\u00eb ushtarake apo jo dhe n\u00eb thelbin e saj do ta kisha ndonj\u00eb dyshim. Ka shum\u00eb t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb rigjendemi me situata krizash t\u00eb ngjashme me ato t\u00eb para gjat\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb. P\u00ebr shembull: n\u00eb rast se Rusia deklaron t\u00eb drejt\u00ebn e saj p\u00ebr kontrollin e korridorit t\u00eb Suwa\u0142ki, vendet e NATO mbyllin qiellin sip\u00ebr Lituanis\u00eb dhe \u00e7do avion qoft\u00eb ushtarak, qoft\u00eb civil, do t\u00eb rr\u00ebzohet apo i detyruar q\u00eb t\u00eb ulet dhe k\u00ebtu ngrihet nj\u00eb pik\u00ebpyetje tjet\u00ebr: do t\u00eb rrezikonte Rusia p\u00ebrdorimin e sistemit t\u00eb saj t\u00eb mbrojtjes ajrore? Objektivi i saj nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb futet menj\u00ebher\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00eb me NATO, por ta minoj\u00eb nga brenda. Ama n\u00ebse n\u00eb nj\u00eb pik\u00eb t\u00eb caktuar nuk vepron, i gjith\u00eb plani b\u00ebhet cop\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Pas d\u00ebshtimit t\u00eb ofensiv\u00ebs ndaj Kievit, Rusia abstenon nga p\u00ebrcaktimi se \u00e7far\u00eb kupton me fitore n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. E nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb vlen p\u00ebr autoritetet ukrainase.<\/strong><\/p>\n

E v\u00ebrtet\u00eb. Kjo varet edhe nga fakti se ekzistojn\u00eb dy hap\u00ebsira brenda t\u00eb cilave t\u00eb matet fitorja: ajo e qytetar\u00ebve dhe ajo e dhomave t\u00eb pushtetit. P\u00ebr sa u p\u00ebrket qytetar\u00ebve rus\u00eb, nuk mund t\u00eb besojm\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha at\u00eb q\u00eb na thon\u00eb sondazhet apo k\u00ebrkimet sociologjike n\u00eb nj\u00eb kontekst censure dhe kontrolli praktikisht totalitar, por ndonj\u00eb tendenc\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb. N\u00eb rasz se shikojm\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen m\u00eb t\u00eb shpesht\u00eb ndaj pyetjes \u201c\u00c7far\u00eb konsideroni nj\u00eb fitore n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb?\u201d, at\u00ebhere shikojm\u00eb se ka sintoni me vizionin e propozuar nga Putini. Me pak fjal\u00eb, nj\u00eb proces ndaj \u201cnazist\u00ebve\u201d t\u00eb shfron\u00ebsuar dhe t\u00eb kapur mund t\u00eb mjaftoj\u00eb. Ekziston kujtimi i Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore i p\u00ebrfunduar me Tribunalin e Nyrembergut. Rus\u00ebt e kan\u00eb studiuar n\u00eb shkoll\u00eb, i korrespondon nj\u00eb formule logjike shum\u00eb t\u00eb sakt\u00eb. K\u00ebshtu, n\u00ebse do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb proces t\u00eb madh ndaj mbrojt\u00ebsve t\u00eb Mariupolit, ndaj an\u00ebtar\u00ebve t\u00eb Batalionit Azov dhe ndoshta ndaj nj\u00eb grushti politikan\u00ebsh ukrainas t\u00eb arrestuar, kjo p\u00ebr nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb rus\u00ebve do t\u00eb mjaftoj\u00eb ta perceptoj\u00eb fitoren, pavar\u00ebsisht nga ku kan\u00eb ardhur tanket dhe cilat qytete kan\u00eb pushtuar. Shumica e rus\u00ebve nuk e di as ku gjenden me sakt\u00ebsi k\u00ebto qytete, ve\u00e7 n\u00eb mos kan\u00eb t\u00eb af\u00ebrm. Ndoshta kan\u00eb qen\u00eb n\u00eb Krime, por n\u00eb Kherson jo, praktikisht askush. Tjet\u00ebr histori \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo q\u00eb ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb me Putinin dhe enturazhin e tij: vizioni tyre i fitores ka hap\u00ebsir\u00eb n\u00eb dimensione t\u00eb tjera. Un\u00eb beson se n\u00eb krye t\u00eb Federat\u00ebs sot ka neobolshevik\u00eb. Drejtuesit aktual\u00eb ndjekin programin e partis\u00eb Nacional \u2013 Bolshevike q\u00eb ve\u00e7 t\u00eb tjerash ekziston akoma dhe me t\u00eb cilin ka bashk\u00ebpunuar gjat\u00eb edhe Aleksandr Dugin. B\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb program ekspansioni t\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00ebs jetike t\u00eb vendit mbi baza t\u00eb asimilueshme me vizionin bolshevik. Putini dhe t\u00eb tij\u00ebt mund t\u00eb konsiderohen gjeopolitikisht trash\u00ebgimtar\u00eb t\u00eb bolshevik\u00ebve edhe pse politikisht e kulturalisht jan\u00eb thell\u00ebsisht antikomunist\u00eb. Nga bolshevik\u00ebt kan\u00eb marr\u00eb konceptin e luft\u00ebs globale q\u00eb i korrespondon revolucionit bot\u00ebror. Pastaj e v\u00ebrteta \u00ebsht\u00eb se ai i tyri \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb kund\u00ebrrevolucion bot\u00ebror, nj\u00eb luft\u00eb pakufij q\u00eb synon t\u00eb realizoj\u00eb nj\u00eb ideal historik, nj\u00eb rikthim n\u00eb shekullin e XIX n\u00ebse duam ta thjeshtojm\u00eb shum\u00eb, n\u00eb Europ\u00ebn e \u2018800, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn n\u00eb kuptimin q\u00eb e kan\u00eb ata: hegjemoni bot\u00ebrore, pa homoseksual\u00eb e pa toleranc\u00eb, por me shkenc\u00eb e treg\u00ebti.<\/p>\n

Si mundet Rusia e vetme t\u00eb ket\u00eb kaq shum\u00eb ambicie?<\/strong><\/p>\n

E vetme nuk do t\u2019ia arrij\u00eb, natyrisht. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb nuk ka kufij ndaj luft\u00ebs, por n\u00ebse do t\u2019i lejohet, nuk do t\u00eb ndalet. Ka nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb ton\u00eb t\u00eb th\u00ebni shum\u00eb t\u00eb qet\u00eb: \u00abKu doni t\u00eb arrini ju rus\u00ebt? Do t\u00eb arrijm\u00eb tamam aty ku do t\u00eb na ndalin\u00bb. Ukraina \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb vend i fuqish\u00ebm nga pik\u00ebpamja ushtarake, e kemi zbuluar me k\u00ebt\u00eb luft\u00eb. Lituania sigurisht q\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb konkurroj\u00eb dhe nuk mund t\u2019i shpall\u00eb luft\u00eb Federat\u00ebs. Kujtojm\u00eb se oficer\u00eb dhe analist\u00eb t\u00eb inteligjenc\u00ebs amerikane theksonin se ushtria ukrainase do t\u00eb rezistonte maksimumi p\u00ebr 3 dit\u00eb. Me shenj\u00ebn nga sa kemi par\u00eb, mund t\u00eb themi se forcat ruse nuk qen\u00eb t\u00eb gatshme p\u00ebr nj\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb plot\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa tani jan\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje lufte totale dhe, duke gjykuar nga ajo q\u00eb po ndodh n\u00eb Donbas, me ngadal\u00eb po fillojn\u00eb t\u00eb aplikojn\u00eb nj\u00eb taktik\u00eb funksionale me objektivin strategjik e likudimit t\u00eb NATO.<\/p>\n

Po Lituania, si pik\u00eb vulnerab\u00ebl e NATO, q\u00ebndron n\u00eb objektivat e k\u00ebsaj strategjie?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lituania \u00ebsht\u00eb pjes\u00eb e NATO, por n\u00eb rast agresioni nga ana e Mosk\u00ebs do t\u00eb mbes\u00eb e till\u00eb vet\u00ebn n\u00eb rast se Aleanca reagon menj\u00ebher\u00eb. P\u00ebrndryshe NATO pushon s\u00eb ekzistuari si bashkim politiko \u2013 ushtarak n\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha efektet. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast jan\u00eb t\u00eb mundshme iniciativa dhe koalicione krejt\u00ebsisht t\u00eb ndryshme. Mund t\u00eb imagjinojm\u00eb nj\u00eb situat\u00eb ku Lituania, Britania e Madhe dhe Polonia, me mb\u00ebshtetjen e Gjermanis\u00eb, i kund\u00ebrvihen nj\u00eb pushtimi eventual rus.<\/p>\n

Po Europa dhe i ashtuquajturi Per\u00ebndim i zgjeruar po e braktisin apo e kan\u00eb braktisur Ukrain\u00ebn?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Un\u00eb besoj q\u00eb jo, por Per\u00ebndimi mbron m\u00eb s\u00eb pari interesat e tij dhe pastaj ato t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs. Kujtoj samitin e NATO t\u00eb Bukureshtit t\u00eb 2004. N\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb isha gazetar dhe i kisha k\u00ebrkuar nj\u00eb funksionari t\u00eb lart\u00eb francez t\u00eb komentonte refuzimin e hyrjes s\u00eb Gjeorgjis\u00eb dhe Ukrain\u00ebs n\u00eb Membership Action Plan e Aleanc\u00ebs. Ai foli n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb zyrtare, shum\u00eb formale, m\u00eb pas pyeti: \u00abE kuptuat mir\u00eb?\u00bb. Ju p\u00ebrgjigja q\u00eb po, e kisha kuptuar. \u00abP\u00ebr t\u00eb qen\u00eb m\u00eb i qart\u00eb po ua them me nj\u00eb fjal\u00eb, por nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u shkruar: jamais<\/em>\u00bb. Logjika mbetet kjo: ta mb\u00ebshtes\u00ebsh Ukrain\u00ebn po, ta fus\u00ebsh n\u00eb Bashkimin Europian dhe n\u00eb NATO kurr\u00eb.<\/p>\n

(nga Limes<\/em>)<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrgatiti<\/strong><\/p>\n

ARMIN TIRANA<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bashk\u00ebbisedim me Ivan Preobrazhenskin, analist gjeopolitik rus banor n\u00eb Prag\u00eb nga 2014, bashk\u00ebthemelues i Komitetit Kund\u00ebr Luft\u00ebs Vladimir Putini e ka krahasuar konfliktin n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb me Luft\u00ebn e Madhe t\u00eb Veriut kund\u00ebr suedez\u00ebve (1700 \u2013 1721). Dometh\u00ebn\u00eb vet\u00ebveten me Pjetrin e Madh. \u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb mesazh p\u00ebr rus\u00ebt apo p\u00ebr europian\u00ebt? Besoj se \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb mesazh …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":20004,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20003"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20003"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20003\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20004"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foltore.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}